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Exactly 2 years and 2 months to go and an Ashcroft mega-poll finds that a CON majority is the least preferred outcome

March 8th, 2013

Precisely 26 months till the GE2015 results start coming in

In exactly two years and two months on another Friday morning many of us will have been up all night watching the results of GE2015 come in. Will we be seeing the LAB majority that almost all surveys since Osborne’s March 2012 budget have pointed to?

To help us here’s a new Ashcroft megapoll out this morning based on an online survey of 20,022 people that was conducted at the end of January.

This was before Chris Huhne’s guilty plea and resignation and, of course, the subsequent Eastleigh by-elections where the Tories came in third.

The poll focuses on the Lib Dems and its publication has been timed by Ashcroft to coincide with the party’s spring conference which opens in Brighton this evening.

Many of the findings make gloomy reading for the yellows although there is not a lot that is new. We all know from other polling that Clegg’s party has lost a huge amount of support since those heady days of May 2010.

One finding that stands out is the one featured above – responses to Ashroft’s forced choice of what outcome participants said they would like at the next general election. A Labour majority government was on 39% with a CON one on 30%. But the blues were pipped to the second place slot by 31% saying they’d like either a CON-LD coalition (13%) or a LAB-LD one (18%).

My reservation about the polling is the field-work date. But surveys with samples sizes as large as this are very useful.

Mike Smithson

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