Archive for February, 2013

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As a general rule we over-estimate the impact of media stories on voting intentions

Tuesday, February 26th, 2013

The influence is on the decline

On the face of the Lib Dem should be taking a real beating in the polls at the moment. Since the Rennard story broke on Thursday evening there has been increasing coverage and the party’s response has been less than optimal.

But what’s happened in the voting polls that have come out? ComRes last night had a 1% decline in the LD share which the Telegraph’s Ben Brogan described as a “slump”. Eh?

Today’s YouGov has the party at 10% which is completely in line with where it has been for several months.

And on top of this we have the Ashcroft-Populus poll on Eastleigh showing no change on what the same firm reported on Friday evening.

As Peter Kellner writes today on the Rennard allegations:

“well, it’s not as if the public thought of politicians as people of the highest moral calibre before Channel 4 News shocked viewers by suggesting otherwise. Why should the Lib Dems’ diminished core vote erode further?”

I think there another big trend in play. Far fewer of us actually read papers or watch TV new bulletins. Things don’t get communicated in the same way.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




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On Friday the good citizens of Eastleigh will get their lives back

Tuesday, February 26th, 2013



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New Ashcroft Eastleigh poll has the LDs 5 percent ahead

Monday, February 25th, 2013

All fieldwork was AFTER Rennardgate story came out

We’ll probably have to wait till tomorrow before getting the poll detail.

The figures are almost exactly the same as the Times Populus poll published on Friday night. It’s understood that Populus carry out Lord Ashcroft’s surveys.

It would appear that the weekend of terrible coverage for the Lib Dems hasn’t had any impact on voters in the Hampshire constituency.

Update – The LDs move to new low in ComRes phone poll

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




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The Foreign Exchange markets react to the Italian election results

Monday, February 25th, 2013



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Italian exit polls point to victory for Bersani

Monday, February 25th, 2013

To follow the action check out:-

http://elezioni.interno.it/index.html – official results, Senato = Senate, Camera = Chamber of Deputies

http://www.rai.it/ – live TV streaming available under “Notizie”



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There’ll be no new Eastleigh polls before the election…

Monday, February 25th, 2013

Meanwhile news if coming out about postal voting

So it’s Survation’s 4% CON lead vs the Populus 5% LD one

I’ve done a check round the pollsters with the capabilities to do constituency surveys and the message I’ve got is that there probably won’t be a new survey ahead of Thursday.

The information we have is restricted to the Survation and Populus surveys that we saw over the weekend. The former had CON 4% ahead while the latter gave the LDs a 5% margin.

The only other data to emerge today is the above Tweet from Michael Crick about postal votes. The ratio of those returned already to those issued suggests that we’ll see a pretty good turnout.

The LDs, meanwhile, continue as odds-on favourites on the betting markets. Read into that what you will.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




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Rennardgate puts pressure on the Tories to ensure they win Eastleigh

Monday, February 25th, 2013

How can they fail with all this happening to the LDs?



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Is Clegg going to be able to survive?

Sunday, February 24th, 2013