— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2013
Another victory for “Wisdom of Crowds” polling?
The above finding asking Eastleigh voters what they thought would happen comes from the Lord Ashcroft by election poll taken a fortnight ago immediately after Chris Huhne announced that he was going.
As can be seen from the chart there was a widespread view from all segments of voters that this would be a yellow hold.
The responses of the 2010 LAB voters are the most telling showing how even before campaigning started they had a view on how it would develop.
- If tactical voting is going to be central then perceptions about the likely result matter enormously.
LAB voters had virtually dismissed their chances right at the start
I don’t think that we will see much more Eastleigh polling though there might be a survey in the final days.