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The Eastleigh moves are all in line with what voters predicted would happen

February 19th, 2013

Another victory for “Wisdom of Crowds” polling?

The above finding asking Eastleigh voters what they thought would happen comes from the Lord Ashcroft by election poll taken a fortnight ago immediately after Chris Huhne announced that he was going.

As can be seen from the chart there was a widespread view from all segments of voters that this would be a yellow hold.

The responses of the 2010 LAB voters are the most telling showing how even before campaigning started they had a view on how it would develop.

    If tactical voting is going to be central then perceptions about the likely result matter enormously.

    LAB voters had virtually dismissed their chances right at the start

I don’t think that we will see much more Eastleigh polling though there might be a survey in the final days.

Mike Smithson