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The big unknown – the level of Ukip tactical swtching to the Tories to stop the Lib Dems

February 18th, 2013

Eastleigh could be a guide to GE2015

The Lord Ashcroft Eastleigh poll carried out before any candidates had been selected found that just 50% of those who’d voted CON at GE2010 said that they would do so again at the by-election.

The biggest segment of the remainder, representing 21% of 2010 CON voters were those saying don’t know. A total of 9% said they’d switch to Ukip.

In a survey started two days later Survation found 14% of 2010 CON voters saying they would choose Farage’s party and 17% saying don’t know.

    Whatever there is quite a large slab of potential switching to the purples which could have a decisive impact on February 28th.

This will be the first time that we are able to measure the scale of Ukip>CON switching in situations where voters’ deisions could mean that a more pro-EU party could end up winning.

This will be a good dry run for the general election.

Mike Smithson

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