Maria Hutchings with Grant Shapps/Michael Green twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2013
Eastleigh could be a guide to GE2015
The Lord Ashcroft Eastleigh poll carried out before any candidates had been selected found that just 50% of those who’d voted CON at GE2010 said that they would do so again at the by-election.
The biggest segment of the remainder, representing 21% of 2010 CON voters were those saying don’t know. A total of 9% said they’d switch to Ukip.
In a survey started two days later Survation found 14% of 2010 CON voters saying they would choose Farage’s party and 17% saying don’t know.
Whatever there is quite a large slab of potential switching to the purples which could have a decisive impact on February 28th.
This will be the first time that we are able to measure the scale of Ukip>CON switching in situations where voters’ deisions could mean that a more pro-EU party could end up winning.
This will be a good dry run for the general election.
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