I know how much PBers like talking about electoral voting systems and processes.
In the most recent elections, when Pope Benedict was elected, it took four ballots, his predecessor John-Paul II was elected after eight ballots, whilst his predecessor John-Paul I was elected after four ballots.
From the reports I’ve read, the new Pope won’t be elected on a first ballot.
If you’re not sure how the Papal election process works, this link will help.
I’m tempted to go somewhere around four and six ballots.
At the time of writing, the odds were as below
|Number of Ballots||Ladbrokes||Paddy Power|
|8 or more with PP||10/1||9/2|
|12 or more with Ladbrokes||8/1|
Paddy Power also have put up a market on the length of the conclave