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The Number of Papal Ballots

February 12th, 2013

I know how much PBers like talking about electoral voting systems and processes.

Fortunately Ladbrokes and Paddy Power have put up betting markets on how many ballots it will take to elect a new Pope, to compliment their who will be next Pope Markets.

In the most recent elections, when Pope Benedict was elected, it took four ballots, his predecessor John-Paul II was elected after eight ballots, whilst his predecessor John-Paul I was elected after four ballots.

From the reports I’ve read, the new Pope won’t be elected on a first ballot.

If you’re not sure how the Papal election process works, this link will help.

I’m tempted to go somewhere around four and six ballots.

At the time of writing, the odds were as below

Number of Ballots Ladbrokes Paddy Power
1 7/1 12/1
2 6/1 8/1
3 5/1 4/1
4 5/1 2/1
5 5/1 7/2
6 6/1 5/1
7 8/1 8/1
8 or more with PP 10/1 9/2
9 12/1
10 16/1
11 25/1
12 or more with Ladbrokes 8/1

Update

Paddy Power also have put up a market on the length of the conclave

TSE