If the #Eastleigh swing is in line with today’s YouGov poll then the Tories would squeeze it by just just one fifth of a percentFebruary 6th, 2013
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013
At #GE2010 the Lib Dems held Eastleigh with a lead over the Conservatives of just 7.2%. So the swing required for victory is 3.6%.
Today’s YouGov shows a swing to the Tories of 3.8% since 2010 – or just slightly ahead of what is required.
The normal way of calculating swings by taking the gap between the two parties and dividing it by two.
This is an unusual by-election in that the top two from 2010 are both showing drops on what was achieved three years ago. The LD drop of 12.6 points is greater than the CON 5 point reduction so the relative position between the parties is much more favourable to the Tories.
No doubt there’ll be #Eastleigh-specific polling in the next few weeks and we’ll get a better picture.
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