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If the betting markets have got #Eastleigh right then the Tories are heading for a senstational by-election victory

February 6th, 2013

By-election to be held on Feb 28

The tough comments by CON chair, Grant Shapps/Michael Green, saying that Eastleigh voters had been let down by the lies of Lib Dems seem to have been the driver behind today’s betting which now sees the Tories odds-on with all the online firms apart from Ladbrokes.

The other factor that’s helped the Tories, in view of the punters, has been the decision by Nigel Farage not to be a candidate.

The latest prices:-

William Hill 5/6 CON, 11/10 LD

Bet365 10/11 CON, 11/10 LD

PaddyPower 5/6 CON, 5/4 LD

Ladbrokes 11/10 CON, 11/10 LD

A big issue that hasn’t been resolved yet is when the fight will take place. There are two main possiblities – soon probably at the start of March; and on local elections day in May when the county councils are voting.

    This is a tough call for the yellows. Going early could give them a tactical advantage though this by-election has been in the offing for so long that all parties should have been prepared.

The delay until May would put time between the Huhne guilty plea and the election and any negative impact of that might have rubbed off.

A lot depends on how confident the party feels about the contest.

UPDATE

Mike Smithson

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