Archive for January, 2013

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The #GE2010 seats:votes ratio hardly suggests that the electoral system is biased against the Tories

Tuesday, January 29th, 2013

Other parties have much stronger cases

We are here. The day that the Commons decide on the boundaries issue and no doubt there’ll be lots of moans and groans from Team Blue about how the system is biased against them. But is that the case?

Based on how many voters it required to secure a single MP LAB has a smaller number – but as the chart above shows the gap is very narrow indeed. It took 34,940 for each CON MP against 33,370 for each LAB one.

The LDs figure was 119,944 while for the the Greens it was 285,616.

But just look at Ukip which chalked up nearly a million votes and didn’t win a single seat.

Mike Smithson

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The Ukip rise continues in the first phone poll since Cameron’s speech

Monday, January 28th, 2013

ComRes/Indy poll has CON 32/LAB 39/LD 10/Ukip 10

We now only get three telephone polls each month which is a great pity. They cost a lot more to mount than an online survey and I take them more seriously.

Tonight’s ComRes poll for the Independent sees the Tories gaining a bit of ground the changes with LAB down a couple of notches. But it’s the rise in Ukip’s share, when all the online firms had them making progress, which is the big surprise.

The non-voting questions followed the standard ComRes “agree-disagree” format which I don’t like.

The pollster found 30% saying they are now more likely to back CON, while 57% disagree. One in six Labour supporters 16% and almost four in 10 supporters of the Ukip supporters say they are more likely to vote Tory.

    Not all Conservatives are impressed by last week’s announcement: 28% of current CON voters and 35% per cent of #GE2010 supporters say they are not more likely to back the party after the referendum promise.

The public appear to share LAB and LD fears that the decision to delay a referendum until 2017 could harm the economy by creating uncertainty for companies and investors. Some 49% agreed with 32% disagreeing.

Mike Smithson

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The new HS2 route serves areas with a heavy concentration of marginals – a winner or a loser at #GE2015

Monday, January 28th, 2013

Is the plan right in spite of NIMBY noise?

The day’s big announcement has been the extension of the HS2 ine from Birmingham to the East Midland and the North West – all areas with a high proportion of the country’s marginal seats.

    Come April/May 2015 this will be where a lot of the action is and today’s annoucement could have impact in the key marginal seats – particuarly the ones won by the Tories in 2010 which they’ll want to hold on to.

So is the prospect of the new facilities enough to out-weigh the negatives from the NIMBY factions?

A key factor for Osborne and co is that it is something they can point to when they are asked about stimulating the economy.

The polling suggests that high speed rail is broadly popular – will it stay that way now we have the routes?

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Mike Smithson



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Why Ukip might be a good bet to win more votes than the Tories in #EU2014

Monday, January 28th, 2013

Ladbrokes have a match bet market on which of CON and Ukip will do better in terms of votes at #EU2014 which take place in eighteen months time.

Note that with the bet where LAB finish is irrelevant, It’s a straight fight between the blues and purples with, for the moment, CON being the odds-on favourite and Ukip priced at evens.

Given recent polling my initial thought was that the Tories might be worth a flutter – but I’ve changed my mind.

    The EU elections are extraordinary in their structure that it’s much more a battle about brands unlike Westminster elections where the individual candidates can still matter.

You’ll recall that rather than putting your mark by individual names you choose an entire list. The election has become not about power but a branding popularity contest in which in the past the main parties have struggled.

In 2009 the Tories secured just 27% of the vote – ten down on what they got in #GE2010. Labour was even worse securing barely half the 30% share that they chalked up in the general election.

As has been seen in the past two Euro elections this is an ideal platform for Ukip. My guess is that they’ll do well.

    +++Join me in helping to keep Marf cartoons on the site+++

For the past five years PB has been enriched by the work of Marf – the site’s cartoonist. Unfortnately the only way we’ve been able to help her financially is though encouraging people to buy originals or prints of her work and allocating part of the proceeds when we’ve had a PB appeal.

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Nadine Dorries says that one of these 4 is likely to be Cameron’s successor

Sunday, January 27th, 2013

After the big headline in several papers today about the leadership ambitions of Windor MP, Adam Afriyie, Nadine Dorries has been giving her advice.

The two names who are least known as Jesse Norman (leader of the Lords rebellion which cost the blues the boundary changes & 20 seats) and Adam Afriyie who is said to be putting a challenge together.

Afriyie, a relatively unknown back-bencher until this morning, is the surprise and is being called by some “The Tory Obama”.

I’m not convinced even though he looks very capable,

In any case there is no vacancy just at this moment.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




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The Cameron EU speech seems to be having the desired effect across the polls: CON gets closer and Ukip down

Sunday, January 27th, 2013

The big question is whether it will be sustained?

There are four polls in the Sundays, all alas online, and the message from those carried out from Thursday onwards is that the Tories and Liberal Democrats are up and Ukip is down.

The fieldwork for a fourth poll by Opinium for the Observer was mostly done before the speech which seems a bit odd. The world has moved on and you’d have thought that the paper would have anticipated this.

Cameron and his team will be delighted that the blue team is advancing at the expense of the purples – a dynamic wihch should, in the short-term, ease some of the pressure on him.

Labour remain the solid favourites to win an overall majority at #GE2015.

Mike Smithson

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It seems that changed methodology was a big driver of the changes in the ComRes poll

Saturday, January 26th, 2013

Should the poll have been CON 32:LAB 37%:LD 11%:UKIP 13%?



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CON up 5 – Ukip down 4 percent in new ComRes online poll

Saturday, January 26th, 2013

Is Dave’s IN-OUT strategy starting to work?

The general rule, when you see changes like the UKIP drop, is to wait for other pollsters to see if they follow the same trend.

Amongst other findings in the poll from ComRes for tomorrow Indy on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror.

 

Cameron versus Miliband

David Cameron is good at standing up for Britain’s interests in the European Union

Agree: 42% Disagree: 33%

Three quarters (76%) of Conservative voters and half (53%) of Liberal Democrats agree.

 

If Ed Miliband were prime minister, he would be good at standing up for Britain’s interests in the EU

Agree: 22% Disagree: 44%

Just half (51%) of Labour voters, 5% of Conservative voters and 14% of Liberal Democrats agree.

 

David Cameron is turning out to be a good Prime Minister

Agree: 32% (+5) Disagree: 46% (-6)

(Change since last month) This is his best net score (-14) since June 2011.

Europe

If a referendum were held on Britain’s membership of the EU, I would vote for Britain to leave the EU

Agree: 43% (-3) Disagree: 31% (+1)

(Change since May 2012)

If some EU powers cannot be restored to the UK, we should leave the EU

Agree: 57% (-1) Disagree: 21% (+3)

(Change since November) Half (50%) of Labour voters agree, as do 65% of Conservative voters and 47% of Liberal Democrat voters.

The UK should leave the EU regardless

Agree: 33% (-10) Disagree: 43% (+10)

(Change since November) This sharp change may reflect confidence that the UK will be able to negotiate better terms.

Leaving the European Union would be bad for the British economy in terms of lost jobs and trade

Agree: 38% (+2) Disagree: 36% (-4)

(Change since May 2012)

By promising a referendum on Europe in the future, David Cameron is causing years of uncertainty which will be bad for the British economy

Agree: 43% Disagree: 30%

One in five (21%) Conservative voters agree.

I expect a Labour Government under Ed Miliband would try to abolish the pound and replace it with the euro

Agree: 30% Disagree: 32% Don’t know: 38%

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news