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Why Ukip might be a good bet to win more votes than the Tories in #EU2014

January 28th, 2013

Ladbrokes have a match bet market on which of CON and Ukip will do better in terms of votes at #EU2014 which take place in eighteen months time.

Note that with the bet where LAB finish is irrelevant, It’s a straight fight between the blues and purples with, for the moment, CON being the odds-on favourite and Ukip priced at evens.

Given recent polling my initial thought was that the Tories might be worth a flutter – but I’ve changed my mind.

    The EU elections are extraordinary in their structure that it’s much more a battle about brands unlike Westminster elections where the individual candidates can still matter.

You’ll recall that rather than putting your mark by individual names you choose an entire list. The election has become not about power but a branding popularity contest in which in the past the main parties have struggled.

In 2009 the Tories secured just 27% of the vote – ten down on what they got in #GE2010. Labour was even worse securing barely half the 30% share that they chalked up in the general election.

As has been seen in the past two Euro elections this is an ideal platform for Ukip. My guess is that they’ll do well.

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