Mapping the CON polling bounce following the Cameron EU veto at 0400 Dec 9th 2011

January 24th, 2013

Correctly there has been a lot of discussion over the timing of the fieldwork for today’s YouGov and I thought it useful to look at what happened on the night of the Cameron EU veto Dec 8/9 2011.

Fieldwork for the poll began on the evening before as per usual and continued the following day. It happened at 0400 on the morning of the 9th and got widely reported in the breakfast bulletins and thereafter.

As can be seen from the chart there was an immediate impact. The CON share went up from 35% to 38% growing over the next few days to 41%.

So that news relating directly to the EU saw an uplift of 6% over a week with a fair bit happening in the poll that was in the field overnight.

Cameron’s bg EU referendum statement was made at 0800 yestrday and was being widely covered in the morning bulletins. Yet there was no change in the CON share on the day before.

Tomorrow morning’s poll could be very interesting. I’m also hoping that we’ll another survey.

Mike Smithson

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