— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2013
Why are the bookies being so tardy?
Within just six days of the 2005 general election seat markets were opened on the following race. Interestingly looking back at my post the opening spreads were: LAB 325-335: CON 226-232: LD 54-60.
Those who were brave enough to bet on the Tories in May 2005 did very well indeed. Interestingly the mid-point for the Lib Dems in those first prices was the exact number that they achieved five years later.
Since then there’s been a massive exit by the bookies from long-distance general election betting. The wonderful Spreadfair, the best betting platform of all, closed down in 2008. Looking forward to 2015 the other spread firms simply have not been interested. SPIN had some markets up but no more.
This is all a great pity because long term betting where you can cash out as the sentimnent changes is great to do.
The main market we currently have, the above one on LD seats, simply offers no value. There’s nothing tempting there at all
What I’d like to see is the line betting that Betfair launched in 2010. Here you had an evens bet on whether a party would have more or fewer than a stated number of seats with the threshold changing as the mood went one way or the other.
Come on Betfair – get your general election line betting up.
UPDATE: Ladbrokes open General Election line betting
Opening seats levels: LAB 314.5, CON 273.5, LD 32.5, SNP 6.5. You can back Over or Under at Evens. http://bit.ly/c5gpH6
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