Latest ComRes suggests that even CON voters have little appetite for full withdrawal from EU. See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2013
Voters might dislike the EU but “full withdrawal” is a step too far
With Cameron’s big EU speech only a week or do away there’s been a fair amount of media attention and, of course, more polling.
Still when people are asked how they would vote in an “In/Out” referendum the polls suggest an exit – yet the gap is narrowing. As YouGov’s Peter Kellner writes today:-
“..As recently as last May, a majority of almost two-to-one wanted Britain out of the EU. 51% said they would vote to leave, while just 28% want to stay in. Immediately after the new year, the margin was narrower but still large: 46% said leave while 31% said stay. Now the gap has narrowed to just six points: 42% leave, 36% stay.
Everything, of course, depends on the question and if the vote was about “full withdrawal” then a very different picture emerges. The above chart illlustrates data from weekend ComRes survey.
Even a third of those declaring themselves as UKIP supporters did not agree with “full withdrawal”. The splits of other parties is show above.
It’s hard to see how a “full EU withdrawal” referendum would succeed. Cameron should take the gamble.
In November I had a bet with William Hill at 10/1 that the UK would be out of the EU by 2020. That looks like a loser.
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