— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2013
Bet on how many times the Speaker will intervene at PMQs
One of the great problems with political betting is that there is no regular event which you can have a punt on. Almost all the markets are on things that can be months or years ahead.
In the past a number of bookies have tred to create weekly markets but none has caught on or has involved a lot of work on the part of the bookie. A couple of years Ladbrokes introduced a sort of PMQs buzz words where you bet on what the Opposition Leader’s first question would about.
I liked that but the amount of effort required by the firm in setting it up was disproportionate and it only lasted a few weeks.
Now PaddyPower has introduced a weekly John Bercow bet on how many times at PMQs he’ll intervene.
There are only two prices – whether the humber will be above a certain level or below. Initially it’s 5/6 either side of 2.5 interventions.
I like the simplicity of this and it won’t require that much regular input by the firm.
The skill is going to be in assessing the political mood. Bercow generally needs to intervene more when passions are running high. My guess is that punters will generally over-estimate the number and the value might be on the low side.
Let’s see how it develops and I for one hope that it catches on.
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