As we await another bumper poll for #Ukip – Ladbrokes open a market on the party’s general election vote shareJanuary 12th, 2013
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 12, 2013
Will the grumpy old white men stick with Farage?
Tonight we’ll see what looks like another great poll for Nigel Farage’s party from Opinium for the Observer.
In preparation the pollster issued a press release trying to explain the methodological reason why it thought its UKIP numbers were amongst the highest. In its last survey before Christmas the firm had them on 15% a share that has only been exceeded by newbie pollster Survation which last week had the party at 16%.
Opinium explained that unlike Survation it did not include UKIP in the main party prompt and to state you are voting for Ukip you have to click “others”. The firm’s thinking is that the firm’s lack of past vote weighting might be responsible for their high number. Maybe.
What is clear from almost all the pollsters is that typical switcher to Farage’s party is white, male, aged 60+ who voted Tory in 2010.
Normally voters with that profile are more likely to vote and less likely to change their minds,
If that is the case in 2015 then the latest Ladbrokes market, featured above, looks interesting. I’ve gone for the 5-10% segment at 7/4.
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