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By May 2015 Cameron’s decision to campaign hard against AV might not look very smart

January 11th, 2013

Under FPTP LAB is the main winner

The pie chart above is derived from today’s YouGov polling and shows the current voting intentions of those who supported Dave’s party in 2010.

The 2010 data is based on polling carried out by YouGov immediatly after the election and not how polling respondents remember it today.

The big move, as can be seen is that getting on for nearly one in five CON voters at the general election are now saying UKIP.

    No doubt as we get closer to the 2015 election that proportion will get smaller particuarly in the key marginals – but it’s a brave pundit who’ll say that Farage’s party will be down to its 2010 level of just over 3% at the next election.

My guess is that the purples could double their 2010 vote particuarly if it comes off the back of a successful performance by in the 2014 Euro elections.

Given that quite a lot of the Ukip vote comes from ex-Tories then how more robust would the blue team’s position be now if the AV referendum outcome had been a YES? The main beneficiary under first past the post is Labour.

Also it’s likely that the boundary changes would be taking place.

Mike Smithson

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