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Could YOU be the Political Forecaster of 2013?

January 10th, 2013

Test your skill in this year’s PB Prediction Competition

“Never underestimate the determination of a quiet man” said Iain Duncan Smith shortly before his defenestration as Conservative leader. But after 2012, what will the quieter year of 2013 hold? How will UKIP perform in the opinion polls? Can the coalition hold together? Will Berlusconi return as Italian PM once more? It’s time to dust off your crystal ball and make your competition predictions for the year ahead.

As before the competition is being hosted by the Election Game. If you would like to take part in the games, the Leaders & Finance game is here and the Israel game is here. Entries for Leaders & Finance close 5pm on Sunday, and the Israel game closes 5pm Sunday 20th Jan. The Game can also be followed here on Twitter (@electiongame).

Please do not make your predictions on this thread, but click through to the link below.

PB Competition entries close 7pm on Monday 14th Jan – enter here

(If for any reason the site is down, it will auto-reboot every 10 minutes)

 

Part 1 – on Christmas Day 2013 who will be…?

(50 points for each correct answer unless shown otherwise)

1 – UK Prime Minister (100 points)

2 – Deputy Prime Minister

3 – Shadow Chancellor

4 – Culture Secretary

 

Part 2 – International elections 2013

(50 points for each correct answer unless shown otherwise)

5 – Australia: who will become Prime Minister following the election?

6 – Germany: who will become Chancellor following the election? (75 points)

7 – Italy: who will become Prime Minister following the election?

 

Part 3 – Seat gains/losses in the May council elections in England

A schedule of the elections is available here, and the results will be settled on the BBC figures.

(100 points for each correct answer reducing by one point for each seat out.)

8 – Net Conservative seats gained/lost

9 – Net Labour seats gained/lost

10 – Net Lib Dem seats gained/lost

11 – Net UKIP seats gained/lost

 

Part 4 – the Opinion Polls – what will the Guardian ICM series report as…?

(50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)

12 – Labour’s highest percentage during the year
13 – Labour’s lowest percentage during the year

14 – The Conservatives’ highest percentage during the year
15 – The Conservatives’ lowest percentage during the year

16 – The Lib Dems’ highest percentage during the year
17 – The Lib Dems’ lowest percentage during the year

18 – UKIP’s highest percentage during the year
19 – UKIP’s lowest percentage during the year

20 – Labour’s biggest lead over the Conservatives
21 – Labour’s smallest lead over the Conservatives/the Conservatives’ biggest lead over Labour

(In the unlikely event that the Guardian series is discontinued, other ICM polls will be used, or failing that a selection of polls at the discretion of Mike Smithson.)

 

Double Carpet (@electiongame)