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The John Curtice quote that neatly sums up the current political landscape

January 6th, 2013

It all goes back to Osborne’s March 2012 budget

Commenting on today’s Mail on Sunday Survation poll that has CON 29: LAB 38: LD 11: UKIP 16 Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University said:-

“…..an election that would otherwise look like a reasonably close contest looks like an easy walkover for Labour.

Tory supporters have been unhappy with the Government ever since George Osborne’s omnishambles Budget.

I would expect UKIP to fall away to some degree by the Election but the only way the Tories can put things right is by restoring their reputation for competence.’

It’s now nearly 10 months since George Osborne announced his 2012 budget – what looks like the pivotal event of this government, This was the moment that polls suggest that the big switch from the Tories began.

    It’s worth recalling that the ICM Guardian poll published on the day before the March budget had the Tories 3% ahead with UKIP down on just 1%.

Curtce always argues that a big driver of opinion is the perception of competence in the government. Once that goes it’s hard to turn it round.

John Major’s government lost it during those difficult years for the Tories in the mid-90s and never recovered. Gordon Brown saw it wither away after the general election that never was in October 2007.

Last weekend I started betting heavily on a LAB overall majorty. I got on at longer than 2.5 – or 6/4 in old money. As I write the last price traded on Betfair was 2.16 and it’s not hard to envisage the LAB overall price touching evens in the coming weeks.

Mike Smithson

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