Following the voters most likely to switch at the general election – those who went Lib Dem in 2010

December 13th, 2012

Today marks the start of a new project on the site – keeping a close eye on those voters most likely to switch at the general election, the 2010 Lib Dems.

My intention is to track and highlight relevant polling data for the group because they probably hold the key to the general election outcome. Thus if, as is happening at the moment, they are moving disproportionately to Labour then it is going to make the Tory task even harder.

Things can, of course, change hence the need to track.

Rather than featuring voting intention numbers I’m going to focus on other measures which I regard as an equal or even better guide to electoral outcomes. Today we see the breakdown of 2010 Lib Dems on the Ipsos-MORI leadership ratings.

There is a danger of looking at sub-sets in polls because, inevitably, the margin of error is higher the smaller the total. To counteract that I am only going to highlight specific findings provided they are broadly in line with other polling.

Mike Smithson

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