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Revisiting the “hung parliament – no coalition” bet

December 4th, 2012

My July 12/1 with Hills looks even better value

Before the summer holidays I got £100 on at 12/1 with William Hill  that the general election would produce another hung parliament but there would be no formal coalition deal. The price has tightened a fair bit since then and the last time it was up on their web-site it was 6/1.

    I can’t see either the Tories or the Lib Dems wanting to enter into another coalition relationship with each other even if the general election outcome made this possible. There’s too much bad blood on both sides.

    Clegg, if he’s still leader, would find it very hard winning support for a continuation and the large parts of the blue team would be reticent

Would this feeling extend to Labour? Would the experience since 2010 make them plump for a minority government if they didn’t get the seats for a majority?

Even though RED-YELLOW relations have thawed quite a bit since the summer there so much residual hostility within the Labour movement to the Lib Dems that it would be hard for Ed Miliband to go down the coalition route. Clegg continuing as leader makes this worse.

If it was at all possible my sense is that Miliband would seek to govern on his own if Labour didn’t have an overall majority.

Interestingly PaddyPower has added CON minority and LAB minority to its general election outcomes market.

On current polling the likely outcome is a LAB majority but I would rate a LAB minority as next in line.

Things of course can change in the next 29 months.

Mike Smithson

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