— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2012
Is this a realistic assessment of her chances?
If the voting in “I’m a celebrity get me out of here” goes against her then the Central Bedfordshire Tory MP, Nadine Dorries, will be heading back to the UK quite soon.
No doubt her first appointment will be a meeting (without coffee as it is euphemistically termed) with the whips and there’s her local Tory constituency association to take into account.
One factor that might be on her side is the growing UKIP threat. If she get’s expelled from the party or deselected then there would be the possible option of joining Nigel Farage’s party.
The last thing the blue team wants at this time, surely, is for UKIP to be given a boost.
So a tricky pre-Christmas period for both Nadine and her party.
My guess is that the whips will allow her back on some form of probation but that her biggest fight will be with her local Tories.
Ladbrokes have got several markets up including 100/1 that Eric Pickles will meet her off the plane. It’s evens that Nadine will be re-elected as an MP (for any party) and 8/11 she isn’t
For the latest polling and political betting news