Since September at Ladbrokes Ed Miliband has moved from a 45% chance of becoming PM before 2020 to a 60% one twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2012
But is the 4/6 price now too tight?
From a betting standpoint EdM has had a good 12 months. Three big things have happened.
The Osborne budget in March was a turning point and became the peg for the media narrative on the competence of Dave/George. Since then LAB has enjoyed majority winning leads in almost every survey. The Tories have a huge job is they are to recover enough to secure a majority.
Nick Clegg’s statement in August that his party won’t vote for the detailed implementation of the boundaries plan effectively takes away the Tory 20 bonus and makes it much harder for them to secure a majority.
EdM’s conference speech in September went down well amongst the party faithful and all but ruled out a challenge to his leadership this side of the general election.
The overall effect is that betting on Ed becoming PM should be almost the same as his party winning most seats.
Currently the price is 4/6. That’s not bad value if you are prepared to lock up your stake until May 2015.
I got on the PM before 2020 bet in June at 6/4.
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