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The PCC elections: the party machines will prevail

November 14th, 2012

The chances for the indies aren’t very high

When the idea of elected Police and Crime Commissioners was being mooted one of the hopes that it would attract independent candidates without party allegiance.

It certainly has done that but because of the very limited opportunity for individuals to get their message across this has proved challenging.

    Simply getting a piece of paper through several hundred thousand letter boxes is a massive undertaking for those without a party machine or party resources.

The idea of sending out a booklet to all electors with a page from each of them was ditched on grounds of cost.

The only way of getting detail of all those standing in your area is to go to a website which is far from satisfactory.

So my guess is that most of the winners will be those with party machines behind them

A few days ago I mistakenly left out four of the police authority areas when where voting is taking place when I published. Those have now been added.

Thanks to Andrea for collating the data and putting this in a sensible form. This is the revised list.

Constituency list with the aggregate 2010 election vote splits (Revised)

LAB “Certainties”

Cleveland: LAB 40.1 CON 27.81 LD 21.5
Durham: LAB 45  LD 24 CON 21
Greater Manchester: LAB 41 CON 27 LD 23
Gwent: LAB 41 CON 24 LD 17
Merseyside: LAB 52 CON 21 LD 20
Northumbria: LAB 45 LD 24 CON 22
South Wales: LAB 41 CON 22 LD 21
South Yorkshire: LAB 43 LD 23 CON 20
Nottinghamshire: LAB 37 CON 36 LD 19
West Midlands: LAB 37 CON 32 LD 19
North Wales: LAB 33 CON 30 LD 15 Plaid 15 (no LD and Plaid)
West Yorkshire: LAB 37 CON 32 LD 20

LAB on CON>LAB swing of upto 5%

Derbyshire: CON 36 LAB 34 LD 22
Cheshire: CON 40.84 LAB32.53 LD 21.21
Cumbria: CON 39.5 LAB 30.82 LD 24.35
Dyfed-Powys: CON 30 LD 26 LAB 22 Plaid
Humberside: CON 37 LAB 31 LD 22
Lancashire: CON 38 LAB 35 LD 18

LAB on CON>LAB swing of 5-7.5%

Staffordshire: CON 41 LAB 31 LD 18
Bedfordshire: CON 44.91 LAB 27.28 LD 20.4
Leicestershire: CON 41 LAB 28 LD 22
Warwickshire: CON45 LAB 27 LD 20

Probably CON

Cambridgeshire: CON 45.3 LD 29.19 LAB 16.31
Dorset: CON 48 LD 32 LAB 12
Essex: CON 49 LD 21 LAB 19
Gloucestershire: CON 45 LD 27 LAB 21
Hampshire: CON 49 LD 30 LAB 14
Herefordshire: CON 50 LD 24 LAB 19
Kent: CON 50, LAB 21, LD 21
Lincolnshire: CON 46 LD 21 LAB 20
Norfolk: CON 43 LD 27 LAB 18
North Yorkshire: CON 46 LD 27 LAB 19
Northamptonshire: CON 48 LAB 26 LD 19
Suffolk: CON 46 LD 24 LAB 21
Surrey: CON 55 LD 28 LAB 9
Sussex: CON 46 LD 27 LAB 16
Thames Valley: CON 48 LD 25 LAB 17
West Mercia: CON 46 LD 24 LAB 18
Wiltshire: CON 47 LD 30 LAB 18
Avon and Somerset: LD 38.4 CON 37.85 LAB 17.97
Devon and Cornwall: CON 42 LD 36 LAB 12

Mike Smithson

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