Pie chart show how vote splits in Aschroft’s Corby by-election poll. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012

Just 48% of the Corby voters who supported Louise Mensch in 2010 tell Ashcroft’s poll that they’ll vote CON in by-election.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012

Surprisingly given national polls only 5% of 2010 CON voters in Corby say they’ll be voting UKIP.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012

Just 2 out of 1,503 sample tell Ashcroft’s Corby poll that they’ll support the Telegraph’s James Delingpole in the by-election.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012

Ladbrokes have taken down their Delingpole Corby market. They were offering 1/2 that he’d get less than 5%.bit.ly/c5gpH6

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012

For every ONE Corby voter saying Delingpole SIX are saying they’ll vote Green – Ashcroft poll

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012

And James Delingpole yet to make an impact!

The Tory peer, Michael Ashcroft has published a second survey of Corby where a by-election will be held next month to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation on personal grounds of Louise Mensch.

Like other Ashcroft surveys this is a high quality poll using telephone interviews and with a sample of 1,503.

Not for Ashcroft cheapie online polls that can be carried out for a fraction of the cost.

These are the changes in vote share compared with the 2010 general election: CON 32%-10/LAB 54%+15/LD 5%-10%)/UKIP 6%/Green 1%/ BNP 1%. So a really bad poll for both coalition partners.

The lesson from by-elections going back many years is that parties get punished for having an election when the vote was not really necessary.

I would have expected both UKIP and Mr. James Delingpole to be doing better.

Mike Smithson

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