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Dave is starting to edge into the “leader most at risk” slot

October 22nd, 2012

Why my Mitchell exit winnings went on Clegg lasting longer

On Satruday I reinvested the projected profits from the Mitchell exit bets on the William Hill market on which of Cameron or Clegg would last longer as party leader. At the time the odds were 1/7 Cameron and 4/1 Clegg.

Given that think that one main outcome of the conference season is that the Lib Dems appear to have little stomach for a change at the top I think that the growing murmurings over Dave make their respective positions about level. So the 4/1 against Clegg was a good bet.

Even though the price on Cameron has eased from 1/7 to 1/5 and Clegg is now 10/3 I think that this still offers good value.

    There’s little doubt that the events of last week have impacted on the confidence that many Tory MPs, particularly the 2010 intake, have in their leader.

If there was a general election tomorrow then the most vulnerable group, surely, are those 100 Tory MPs who won their seats in 2010 from other parties. Faced with the prospect of losing your job in two and a half years you are going to be a lot more critical

The new phrase that’s come to describe the government’s performance is lack of competence and I think we are going to hear a lot about that in the coming weeks and months.

Mike Smithson

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