YouGov have the VI as
Con 31%, Lab 45%, LD 8%, UKIP 8%.
But the big news from yougov, which sees Ed’s net leadership ratings improve from last week’s minus 29%, to minus 9% this week.
The normal caveats about polling during Conferences should be remembered, but Labour and Ed should be delighted by his 20% shift in the leadership ratings. If this were to be repeated with MORI, then Ed and Labour supporters will be extremely reassured.
David Cameron saw his net rating improve, from minus 25 last week, to minus 24 this week.
Nick Clegg’s net ratings remain unchanged at minus 61.
Other snippets from YouGov
On the various supplementaries David Cameron and Ed Miliband, comparing Ed to Dave, Ed has received boosts, but still trails where he trailed last week.
So the proportion of people thinking Miliband is the stronger leader is up 5 to 26%, thinking he is the most decisive up 7 to 28%, more likeable up 3 to 34%, having a better strategy on the recession up 5 to 29%, however on all of these he continues to trail behind David Cameron. The biggest increase is on having a clear vision for Britain where Miliband is up 8 points to 30%, putting him only just behind Cameron on 32%.
However, when asked whether it is likely that Ed Miliband will ever become Prime Minister 32% of people now think it is fairly or very. 54% think it is fairly or very unlikely. Pre conference figures were 30% and 57% respectively.
On the recent rail franchising cataclysm blame game
33% mostly blame the civil servants
45% mostly blame ministers
58% say the government were right to suspend the civil servants
51% say Justine Greening should resign, and 18% say she shouldn’t have to resign. Conservative voters are in favour of Greening resigning – 39% to 34%
- Opinium/Observer poll
In the Observer, there is the now regular poll.
Cons 30 (+1)
Labour 41 (+2)
Lib Dems 9% (-1)
As with YouGov, Ed’s leadership ratings seen a marked improvement, but he still trails David Cameron.
The opposition leader’s approval rating shot from 23% of likely voters before the speech to 28%, according to the latest Observer/Opinium poll. David Cameron’s approval rating is slightly higher at 30%
The poll also contains good news for Boris Johnson and not so good news for George Osborne.
- Michael Thrasher over at Sky News has done analysis of Tory council by-election performances and puts it into a historical context.