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The Rallings & Thrasher local elections projection

April 18th, 2012

National Equivalent vote share: CON 34%-4/LAB 37%-/LD 18%+2

The above national equivalent vote share projection, with comparisons on last year, is the annual one produced by Professor Rawlings & Thrasher of the University of Plymouth.

The figures are derived from local by elections which in the past have proved to be quite a good predictor.

They were produced at a briefing session in London this morning organised by the Political Studies Association.

    Compared with 2008 when most of the seats were last fought Labour are 9% up while the Tories are down by the same amount. The LDs are projected to be down by 5%.

According to Professor Rawlings Labour need to secure 700 gains in order to justify current national polling. On the Lib Dems he said that there was a real danger that the party’s councillor base could fall below 3,000 – the lowest since the party was created in 1997.

Both the LDs and the Tories are each projected to lose between 250 and 350 seats.

Mike Smithson