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Returning by popular demand – PAPA

March 1st, 2012
Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH %
           
ICM/Guardian 20-Feb-2012 36 37 14 13
Populus/Times 20-Feb-2012 37 39 11 13
Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 29-Feb-2012 35 41 12 12
ComRes/Independent 27-Feb-2012 37 40 13 10
YouGov/Sun 29-Feb-2012 38 40 9 13
           
***PAPA*** LATEST 36.6 39.4 11.8 12.2

This is the Politicalbetting All Pollsters’ Average which I hadn’t updated for months. Now AndyJS is administering this for us and will update on a regular basis.

This is calculated by taking a simple average from the latest published surveys of the five main pollsters which have been producing regular polls since the general election and before.

Unlike the “average” produced by YouGov’s Anthony Wells on UK Polling Report PAPA treats all the main polls on the same basis. There is no extra weighting element linked to accuracy and there is no artificial boost for polls that come out more often. Each calculation is based on the latest available poll.

I’m hoping that we can fill in the missing months so that we have a continuous record since 2010 and produce some trend charts

Thanks Andy.

@MikeSmithsonOGH




  • Moniker of Monza

    I’m delighted to see Murdoch and Salmond in alliance. They belong together.

  • Socrates

    I’m not going to take any lessons on tolerance from someone as antisemitic as yourself.

  • Anonymous

    Or alternatively, how about an absolute majority in Scotland’s Parliament?

    How about it?  Defence is a reserved issue as you and the voters well know.

  • Anonymous

    I would say Mike’s so-called ban which you didn’t bother reading what he actually said and went off on a one man crusade.

  • Plato

    I think Labour’s use of identity politics was  and is  abhorrent.

    I’ve no problem with saying that at all :^)

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “Defence is a reserved issue as you well know.”

    So is the constitution, but we’re still having a referendum on independence because the SNP won an absolute majority.

    Holyrood is the big election in Scotland.

  • Anonymous

    Fair enough Chris, I agree. But I would have thought the protests would go the other way if the UK govt upped and decided to move the submarines and their jobs to Portsmouth.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “I think Labour’s use of identity politics was  and is  abhorrent.”

    So why did you vote for them?

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “I would say Mike’s so-called ban which you didn’t bother reading what he actually said”

    So why did I directly quote what he actually said when launching my “crusade”?  Don’t add up, Alan.

  • Anonymous

    I just took my dog out the front door, walked the estate I live on, across the adjoining fields, over a mountain stream, through the grounds of a 300 year old blacksmiths, down through a horse meadow, where I picked up my kiddie from my in-laws, threw him on my shoulders and walked directly uphill to Llanbradach Fawr, a 600 year old farmhouse. From there I sat on a fallen tree and looked down on the valley below; the skies above me crystal blue and everything peaceful in the world.

    You can’t do that if you live in Luton or the east end.

    I love the Welsh hills in the springtime.

  • Plato

    SeanT posted this article the other day IIRC – just read it and its well worth 5 mins of your time.

    Some
    years ago, at a management retreat held by Rupert Murdoch’s News
    Corporation, the senior managers and their distinguished guests returned
    from lunch to find freshly minted copies of the Times — the original London Times,
    that is — lying on their chairs. This was slightly odd because the
    afternoon speaker was Kelvin Mackenzie, then the imaginative editor of
    its much less respectable neighbor, the noisy, populist tabloid Sun.

    Still, Mr. Mackenzie bounded up to the lectern and genially invited
    his audience to look through his rival’s stories. What did they think of
    them? Solid responsible reporting? Or dull conventional stuff? Which
    was it?

    The audience, doubtless suspecting a trap, indicated cautious approval.

    Whereupon Mackenzie expressed unfeigned delight since, as he told
    them, the paper they were reading was composed word for word from
    stories originally written and published in the Sun and then re-printed for the occasion in a Times broadsheet format. http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/292189/son-isuni-john-o-sullivan?pg=1

  • Anonymous

    you part quoted it.

  • tim

    An anti Semite could pick out three places on that list and start posting that they all had higher than average percentages of Jews.
    It would be the exact pointless mirror image of your “thing” about Muslims.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly
  • old_labour

    ‘Romney’s Top 10 Wealth Gaffes’

    1 – My wife “drives a couple of Cadillacs”
    2 – “I have some great friends who are NASCAR team owners.”
    3 – Annual speaking income of $370,000 is “not very much”
    4 – “I’m also unemployed.”
    5 — “I like being able to fire people”
    6 – “Corporations are people, my friend.”
    7 – “I’ll tell you what. Ten thousand bucks. A $10,000 bet.”
    8 – “I’m not concerned about the very poor”
    9 – “There are times when I wondered whether I was going to get a pink slip.”
    10 – Romney on Newt Gingrich: “He’s a wealthy man, a very wealthy man. If you have a half a million dollar purchase from Tiffany’s, you’re not a middle class American.”

    http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2012/02/28/romneys-top-10-wealth-gaffes/

  • Anonymous

     James, I’m not driving traffic on your site thanks all the same :-)

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    Is the Vote2007 website working for anyone?

    http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/

  • Anonymous

    Holyrood is the big election in Scotland.

    Did more people vote in the UK General Election in Scotland or the Holyrood election?

  • Anonymous

    Lucky boy Fenster. Must be getting close to lambing time now.

  • old_labour

    A Happy St David’s Day to Welsh posters.

    Do people celebtrate it in Wales and does the country have a national drink?

  • Plato

    Because they were better than the alternative at the time.

    Isn’t that what a non-tribal voter does?

    Are you in complete agreement with every SNP policy?

    Unless you are – the same applies to you ;^)

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “Because they were better than the alternative at the time.”

    In what specific ways were they better than the alternative?

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    In that case, I’ll just note the irony of you complaining about me not reading the information that’s given.

  • Socrates

    I didn’t point anything out. I just mentioned the places and left others to draw their own conclusions. I was actually implying they were all places with horrible ethnic tension. I have no problem with Muslims, and there are plenty of admirable ones out there. My only issue is with people that are intolerant, won’t integrate with the broader culture, and don’t support basic democratic principles.

    But that’s probably too complex a view for a gay-hater like yourself to understand.

  • Moniker of Monza

    Sir Rupert and the Toy Boy.

     http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/opinion/alex-and-rupert-a-fine-bromance.2012032122

  • Anonymous

    Absolutely. Many little girls wear Welsh costume to junior school. My mother used to love watching them from the kitchen window.

    Wales does not have a national drink, but recently Penderyn re-started the lost art of whiskymaking.

    There were several distilleries in Wales before methodism and baptism swept the country in the 18th and 19th centuries, and with them temperance.

    Even as late as the 1970s there were ‘dry areas’ where the pubs were all shut on Sundays.

  • Anonymous

    TIM: “you’re obsessed” – well it sure takes one to know one m8i!!!

  • Anonymous

    Brains SA!

    Otherwise known as Skull Attack or Sore Ar*e.

    We do celebrate it. All the schoolkids wear their daffodils and little Welsh bonnets and look cute.

    We don’t celebrate our National Day the way James Kelly celebrates his in Scotland though. He enjoys the thrill of St Andrews Day by kidnapping the first Englishman he finds and skinning him like an apple, before setting fire to an A4 portrait of HD2.

  • Anonymous

     By all means do.

  • Anonymous

    That would be inhuman behaviour …

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    OK.  How ironic it is, Alan, for you to complain about me not reading the information that’s given.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    It really does hurt that we’re going to win, doesn’t it?

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “He enjoys the thrill of St Andrews Day by kidnapping the first Englishman he finds and skinning him like an apple, before setting fire to an A4 portrait of HD2.”

    I promise you that I have only ever done one of those things.

  • Plato

    I find it rather sad that anyone no matter who they vote for use race or religion as a faux way to discredit another poster, just because they address it as a live issue that effects how people behave or vote.

    Recognising that cultural clashes are a real issue now and grew as a result of massive recent immigration does not make those who discuss it RACISTS or anything else.

  • tim

    “Mr Cameron confessed to using the show’s catchphrases such as “what’s occurring?” and “tidy”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/9114459/David-Cameron-bows-down-to-Gavin-and-Stacey-actress-Joanna-Page.html

  • Richard Howell

    What evidence do you have that tim is homophobic? From all that I have seen, he has been vigorous in attacking homophobia, whether veiled or explicit.

  • tim

    He’s attempting to be clever, it doesn’t quite work.

  • Moniker of Monza

    You’ve already lost , haven’t you ?

  • old_labour

    I was focusing on the use of the word ‘recollection’ in an article from that bastion of socialism, the Telegraph. Perhaps Mr Cameron needs to use better PR people.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “You’ve already lost , haven’t you ?”

    Two mammoth donations, a landslide parliamentary victory, and the potential backing of the country’s most-read newspaper?

    Yes, Moniker, things have never looked gloomier for us.

  • Anonymous

    Its because Tim can’t help himself. 
    First he thinks it clever and funny.
    But really it’s Tim imposing his bigoted view of people, all people, (like Mrs Duffy) who are opposed to immigration and concerned/angry/whatever over various terror attacks by muslims.  Tim’s view of Mrs Duffy equates with Gordon Brown’s.

    Tim does not realise that the sweeping scale of his generalisations earmarks him as being as much a bigot as the people he criticises.  He goes out of his way to make nasty insinuations at opposing parties but ignores and runs away from the same issues that have been proven against his own party.

    He is given far too much leeway on this blog and his spamming ruins it – and that before you bring the McSpammers into it.

  • Plato

    Yesterday James claimed there were hardly any Labour posters on PB.

    He was supplied with a list of at least ten within minutes and then argued that he hadn’t seen them and suggested they’d posted in the last couple of years.

    That was debunked within seconds since they’d posted in the last 7 days and indeed even on the previous thread.

    He then demanded that we provide *links* to substantiate this – and that failure to do so meant he’d won.

    Desperate doesn’t adequately describe someone who refuses to be wrong.

  • tim

    And the usual suspects turn up.
    The “Zionist pedophiles” fixated Trevor and his little helper.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “He then demanded that we provide *links* to substantiate this”

    I think this might help -

    1)  Find a mirror.

    2)  Look in that mirror.

    3)  ”Plato, meet Plato.”

  • Anonymous

    Is there any betting site where odds are available re: which Sun or NotW will get arrested next ?

  • http://www.biologymad.com/ HD2

     Wild guess – because they were fox-hunting?
    And, in any case, it’s an entirely private and personal matter.

  • Richard Nabavi

    These Romney ‘gaffes’ are quite ironic, really.  People are always complaining that politicians (especially Romney) are fakes and should be their natural selves rather than trying to pretend they are something they are not.

    Romney follows the advice, and gets pilloried for it..

  • Anonymous

    I can’t comment on all the places you cited but as I live near Luton (and will take a train there shortly) I do feel able to commment on it.  It’s a deeply unpleasant place, an aspirational black hole, where the middle class live in one small area or, more likely, have moved away.   That’s the main problem and while the race problems exist, they are primarily class based:  one only has to look at the workforce at the Vauxhall plant to see a similarity with the old workforce at Harland and Woolf in Belfast. 

    I can’t see why anyone would want to live there.

  • Plato

    I rest my case.

    James, seriously – why can’t you just say – Oops. I was wrong?

    There is no indignity in that. Most people respect others more when  they recognise their errors.

    Showing that you are big enough to be wrong, demonstrates self-confidence.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “Wild guess – because they were fox-hunting?
    And, in any case, it’s an entirely private and personal matter.”

    It was certainly personal for the foxes.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

  • Anonymous

    “But that’s probably too complex a view for a gay-hater like yourself to understand.”

    I have read Rightwingers attack Tim for everything under the sun [ not the newspaper ] but cannot remember ever him being attacked because he hated gays !

    Have you got your facts right ?

  • tim

    You’ve got to prefer Daves approach.

    That not knowing how many houses you own, coupled with not being able to “recollect” going riding with Rebekah Brooks are just a cover for the inner Guinness and Footy man.

  • Anonymous

    ‘he is attempting tom be clever and it doesn’t quite work.’

    Hillarious.

  • http://scottish-independence.blogspot.com/ Stuart Dickson

    Jeepers, the powers of PB knows no bounds! SNP alter policy due to persistent Herd assaults?

    ‘Independent Scotland could join Nato, say SNP sources’
    - SNP is believed to be considering scrapping opposition to Nato membership as part of radical shakeup of defence strategy

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/mar/01/independent-scotland-could-join-nato?newsfeed=true

  • Anonymous

    It’s not as if The Telegraph has an agenda, is it.  I appreciate that most of the posters on Telegraph articles are swivel eyed loons (for balance, it’s just as bad in the Guardian) but it amuses me that they turn comments off on articles like that:  presumeably on the basis of the editing out rude comments on the DT’s owners would be too much strain.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “Showing that you are big enough to be wrong, demonstrates self-confidence.”

    OK, so let’s see if you practice what you preach.  Will you now accept that it was ludicrous of you to repeatedly demand a link to a TV programme that was several years old?

  • Anonymous

    Today’s Rasmussen national
     
    Romney 40
    Santorum 24
    Newt 16
    Paul 12
     

    Gallup

    Romney 35
    Santorum 24
    Newt 15
    Paul 11

  • Moniker of Monza

    Murdoch’s decision. Another flip flop from weak Eck.

  • Anonymous

    LOL

    Quickly give James more details, so that he can now argue against the position he’s taken for too long!

  • Socrates

    It’s no more defamatory or less fact-based than the stuff he makes up about me.

  • Anonymous

    Rasmussen General

    Obama 46
    Romney 43

    Obama 46
    Santorum 42

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    Sigh.  This isn’t new, Chris.  It was in the Scotsman the other day.  *If* the policy changes (and that’s highly speculative at this stage), I’ll disagree with it.

  • Anonymous


    A survey of 7,112 SNP members by Professor James Mitchell at Strathclyde
    University found that 52.7% believed Nato membership was in Scotland’s
    strategic interests, compared with only 22% who still believed in
    quitting the alliance.

    Ok.  Since we discover Mr Kelly is out of touch even with what most of his fellow separatists want, perhaps any other SNP lurkers might now want to contribute to the debate.

  • Plato

    What link was this and when did I ask for it? Did I *demand* it or just ask for some back-up evidence as is common practice on PB?

    Really, just for second look at what you post.

    It’s aggressive, often spontaneous personalised attacks, unwilling to accept you are ever wrong and deliberately intended to provoke others who don’t agree with you.

    And you regularly assume that I must read your blog. I have absolutely no idea why you think so – unless you believe you’re irresistible.

    It’s like a chap working in Greggs’ assuming I have a crush on him because I sometimes buy a sandwich when he’s manning the till.

    And then angrily blogging about it when I didn’t notice his special tie.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    Must dash now, but I look forward to returning and discovering whether Plato ever gets round to answering my question.  Or perhaps “self-confidence” and admitting you were wrong is only good enough for non-”libertarians”?

    It’ll certainly be fascinating to find out.

  • tim

    If someone had singled out three places with high Jewish populations on that list and tried to put that forward as the defining factor for the RightMove list they’d deserve to be picked up on it, you are exactly the same with Muslims.
    And you have rather a long history of it on here.

  • Anonymous

    Surely you know by now,that anyone that has the audacity to raise immigration or integration as an issue is automatically smeared as a racist by lefties.

    It’s been a very effective form of censorship.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “perhaps any other SNP lurkers might now want to contribute to the debate”

    Don’t worry – Plato knows their names of all the pro-NATO Nat lurkers off by heart.  Especially when she’s frantically trying to disprove that this is a Tory-dominated blog!

  • Anonymous

    NEW THREAD

  • Anonymous

    Apart from your Republican beliefs
    Your disagreement with the majority of SNP supporters on defence.
    And your views about Scottish Golf courses…

    Are there any other substantive issues on which you take a minority view, within the minority party?

  • Anonymous

    Cameron never seems to answer anything clearly. He told Channel 5 an hour or so ago that he did not ride with R Brooks on that police horse.

    So is it OK to ride on any other horse when this hacking business has been swirling round since probably 2007 ?

    Riding a horse with someone and going to a party with a hundred other people is not quite the same thing.

    Also shocking today was Yates’ testimony. Dinners at very expensive restaurants with NoTW journalists ? What was he thinking ?

  • Freggles

    It’s getting very personal in here this afternoon.

  • Mike Smithson

    New thread

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “Did I *demand* it”

    Yes, you did.  And you claimed that if I didn’t provide it (which of course was physically impossible), that meant I was making the whole thing up.  You’ve repeatedly gloated about it ever since.

    Can I now have an apology please?  It’ll make you look more self-confident.

    “It’s aggressive, often spontaneous personalised attack”

    This from the woman who called me “creepy”, “weird”, “a w*nker”, “a twat”, “a tiresome upyourself jerk”, etc, etc?  I must have been going some to match all that.

    You just couldn’t make it up.

  • Anonymous

    He probably went because Camerion told him to..

  • Sunil McPrasannan

     Must be Ilford South – Ilford North is still Tory :)

  • Eton Mess

    UKIP *yawn* – really, really not worth doing that. You could round up all of UKIP’s supporters and fit them in a moderately-sized camper van.