Can Alex Salmond ease the economic concerns of Scottish voters?

March 1st, 2012

Is this what will determine whether it’s YES or NO?

There’s some new polling from Ipsos-MORI that’s just been published that, I believe, goes right to the heart of the Scottish independence referendum – whether voters will feel assured about their financial prospects if they vote for the big change.

The overall conclusion was that the prospect of Scotland becoming an independent country leaves people feeling less optimistic about their personal financial situation and about economic conditions in Scotland.

That is about now – the big question is how they’ll feel in October 2014.

At the beginning of the survey respondents were asked about a range of personal and national economic issues and whether they thought they would improve, stay the same or get worse in the next five next years. At the end of the survey they were then asked what would happen to the same measures if Scotland were to become an independent country.

On each measure, optimism fell and pessimism grew once the concept of independence was introduced.

Thus when asked about personal finances 34% thought they would improve in the next five years while 30% thought they would get worse, a net rating of +4%. This net rating fell to -14% when we asked what would happen to personal finances if Scotland were an independent country.

When those currently working were asked about their job security in the next five years, there was a net rating of -1%, which grew to -7% when respondents considered what would happen if Scotland were independent.

A third of respondents (34%) thought that economic conditions in Scotland would improve in the next five years, compared to 39% who thought they would get worse, a net rating of -5%. This net rating became -11% when we asked about economic conditions if Scotland were to become independent.

Amongst those who currently oppose independence the gaps, as you’d imagine are much much greater. Thus among this group the net rating for personal finances falls from -4% in the next five years to -58% if Scotland were independent.

The pessimism was particularly evident among those with mortgages living in affluent areas who currently appear more nervous about the economic consequences of independence. This is a section of the electorate, I’d suggest, who are likely to turnout.

The poll highlights the challenges facing Alex Salmond and his team in convincing voters to make the jump.

The fieldwork, by phone, took place at the end of January so the poll is a little old.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

malcolmG

Alan, you have great faith in donkeys.
malcolmG

you going to dig a canal up to Greenham, solve unemployment problem at the same time.
Anonymous

It’s concerning to know that supporters of the Union are prepared to rip up the UN Charter in their desire to keep Scotland in the UK. Very democratic, wouldn’t you say? Which other solemn, binding treaties are Unionists prepared to rip up? The Treaty of Union, perhaps, which the claim is the foundation of the British State and which they continue to assert was an equal union. In British terms, is it not possible for an equal partner to end that contract?
http://www.biologymad.com/ HD2

I’ve not seen you before on here, Frank, so welcome to PB.com!

If you read some of my posts up-thread, they are more considered and almost too long!

I post my more considered thoughts early in the day and so early on a thread. Sometimes on-topic, sometime off. I’m interested in US politics, but not in the minutiae of the different GOP selection processes in each State, though I can readily see why they are attractive to political gamblers.

Thus, I tend to stay off that topic and merely comment on the news of the day, as it gets reported on here, together with comments on some others’ posts: hence your ‘sound-bite’ point is a valid comment.

Many on here have read my previous posts on some topics (ad nauseam!) so I try to be as succinct as possible when repeating myself. Others will tell you I succeed in that ambitional all too rarely!

I last got into a serious debate with a PB-er (James Kelly) a few days ago, only to find he’d added a sourly sarcastic comment or three and then cut n’ pasted it onto to his own blog.

He professed to be surprised I was not in favour of wife-beating, which just about sums the man up.

Deranged and deluded.

And exiled from wherever he once called ‘home’.
Anonymous

The penny does not seem to have dropped with the lefties. Labour knew about phone hacking long before Coulson resigned. Labour and the police were all complicit in covering up hacking at a Labour supporting paper.
If everyone was happy that there were just two rogue reporters then what was the issues with Coulson joining the Tories?
Anonymous

Are you suggesting that RUK will use bully-boy tactics?
Are you suggesting that the peoples of RUK will stop buying Scottish goods?
Are you suggesting that RUK will forbid Scottish exporters and importers from using the RUK transport infrastructure?
Are you suggesting that RUK will import French electricity rather than Scottish electricity?
Are you suggesting that RUK (if it is, indeed, the single Successor State) will veto Scotland’s EU application in a fit of pique?

Are you, really, telling the people of Scotland that Westminster and the people of RUK are so mean-minded?
G!

Actually on second thoughts it would be sensible to split geographically fixed assets based on geography. And only splitting ‘floating’ and overseas assets in population terms.

But you could argue that only population matters.
Anonymous

“I hope at some point before the referendum the PM and the leader of the Unionist campaign makes clear, that if Scots vote to remain inside the union, they should do so not on some vague promise of more devolution, but to end the threat of separation, for at least a generation.”

chris_g00, being a supporter of Independence, I’m in full agreement……………..The Unionist slogan for the Referendum should be………….VOTE NO for THE STATUS QUO………….. because if the Unionists don’t use it, the Indepentistas most assuredly will.
http://www.biologymad.com/ HD2

Not sure to whom that post is addressed.

Here’s my 2d worth.

No, but they’ll most certainly refuse to hand over anything without getting something in return. Your role is of supplicant: our’s of the sweet monitor.

Quite probably, yes. Scotch excepted, I can see many others switching, not from spite but from a cost pov. Once outside the UK, your products would be taxed. Things like VAT would not be reclaimable, for example, for cross-border trades.

No, but there would be a tariff. how steep would depend on the companies concerned, not the Govt (who could no longer care less and so would no longer subsidise such travel)

It would all depend on cost, as now. Wind’s not reliable (save from Salmond). France would be in the EU, Scotland, at least initially, won’t be.

Veto no, insist that every single dot and comma of the entry requirements are met in full, and all dues are paid up on time – all in the interests of ‘fairness’, you understand.

No, we’re not mean-minded, but countless aggressors and others with designs on our lands have mistaken a ‘laid-back’ attitude to indifference, only to discover that we are a passionate people who fight hard (and dirty, when necessary) for our freeeeeedeedoms!

Ask Galtieri.
Anonymous

So in your first intervention on the basis of the thread you avoid the subject and attack your opponents.

Pathetic. Pork and Kelly were do different as well.
http://www.biologymad.com/ HD2

Equal then? No way (save in Sovereign terms)!
Equal now? Don’t be silly!
malcolmG

Your not on this planet

politicalbetting.com

Can Alex Salmond ease the economic concerns of Scottish voters?

Is this what will determine whether it’s YES or NO?

@MikeSmithsonOGH