Archive for March, 2012

h1

ComRes: The TwoEds getting closer on the economy

Saturday, March 31st, 2012

But no voting intention numbers

There’s a new ComRes poll in the Sindy and Sunday Mirror which the former is splashing on its front page.

There are, apparently no voting intention questions and I assume that the firm will have followed its usual practice of not past vote weighting non-VI surveys.

As can be expected the numbers don’t look good for the blue team and some appear on the Sindy’s front page above.

The big change has been in perceptions on the management of the economy with comparisons on the firm’s pre-budget poll two weeks ago.

    To the question I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy Agree it was: 25% (-4) Disagree: 60% (+11) DK: 15% (-7)
    To the question I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy it was Agree: 21% (+6) Disagree: 60% (+1) DK: 19% (-7)

So the TwoEds are getting closer moving from a net minus 25% to just 4%.

@MikeSmithsonOGH



h1

Will Dave be the last public school Tory leader?

Saturday, March 31st, 2012

Can we expect his successor to be a comprehensive boy/girl?

There’s been a bit of movement on the Betfair next Tory leader market for David Davis who is now second favourite. There is almost no liquidity in the betting and in betting terms this doesn’t mean very much.

It does however provide a peg to raise the question about what the next Tory leader’s background will be and here I make a prediction – for like David Davis the job will not go to someone who was privately educated.

    Dave is the first Conservative PM in nearly half a century to have gone to a public school and when time comes for a new leader the party will revert to excluding those who with elite backgrounds

A key factor in the the next Tory leader race will be who gets promoted in the re-shuffle that’s being promised for later this year. From what we’ve seen so far it doesn’t look good for male Tory MPs with elite educational backgrounds. For the only changes he’s had to make to deal with the Liam Fox resignation have been the promotions for Justine Greening and Chloe Smith.

The former went to a comprehensive in Rotherham and then Southampton University while the latter was educated at comprehensives in Norfolk and then York University.

Could one of those two take over the top job?

@MikeSmithsonOGH



h1

Marf…after a day dominated by George…

Saturday, March 31st, 2012

  • If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints, please contact her at marfcartoons@btinternet.com


  • h1

    Romney now a 90+ percent chance

    Friday, March 30th, 2012

    Should I cash out now?

    Here’s a betting conundrum.

    Over the months I’ve been trading on the Betfair Republican nominee market and am set to win a four figure sum if Mitt Romney makes it. If he doesn’t then I don’t lose a thing though my winnings on Santorum, Paul or Gingrich would be only about £100.

    Given the ability to back and lay on Betfair I could cash in my entire Romney position now and ensure that, whatever happens, I get about 90% of the potential Romney winnings if I stayed in.

    Is it worth it or should keep my betting as it is?

    @MikeSmithsonOGH



    h1

    Does Ed’s survival now depend on Ken?

    Friday, March 30th, 2012

    What if LAB fails to win back city hall as well?

    No quibbling – Bradford West was a disaster for both LAB and its leader. To fall so far back with real voters in a real election after a period when the coalition has been on the back foot is hard to excuse.

    Much is being made of the size of the Asian communities within the constituency – but according to the 2001 census 43% are Asian, and 52.6% are white. Granted things might have changed a bit since then but but the Asian communities are not as overwhelmingly dominant as some Labour apologists are saying.

    The other factor is that this seemed to come as a total surpise although we got a whiff on Wednesday that something was happening following what the bookies were describing as a massive gamble on Gallow.

    I just wonder whether this will raise further question marks about Ed Miliband and what might happen if Labour/Ken doesn’t win the London mayoral election.

    Certainly with national poll leads of 10% Labour is looking pretty good at the moment – how come then that the party did so badly last night.

    The London election is a lot tighter and the latest polling has Boris with an 8% lead.

    Also on May 3rd there are local elections in many parts including Scotland. Would an erosion by the SNP into Scottish Labour’s councilor base also take the gloss of what should be very good news on the day?

      A narrative of Bradford failure; London failure; Scotland failure is hardly what the party’s young leader needs.

    The bookies have tightened the prices on Ed not making it as leader to the general election.

    @MikeSmithsonOGH



    h1

    Bradford West: 1000s of Tories tactically voted for George

    Friday, March 30th, 2012
    Candidate Party Votes cast % share % change
      George Galloway RESPECT 18341 55.9 +52.8
      Imran Hussain LAB 8201 25 -20.3
      Jackie Whiteley CON 2746 8.4 -22.7
      Jeanette Sunderland LD 1505 4.6 -7.1
      Sonja McNally UKIP 1085 3.3 +1.3
      Dawud Islam Green 481 1.5 -0.8

    Was for many this about giving LAB a bloody nose?

    Just looking at the numbers compared with the general election and it’s clear that there was a huge anti-LAB tactical vote. Many Tories and LDs from the general election went with Galloway.

    This combined with the perception that LAB took its voters for granted combined to produce a devastating outcome for the red team in a week when everything was going its way. Last night YouGov had the party at 44%.

    Even during the campaign the LAB candidate reinforced negative perceptions by refusing to take part in hustings meetings.

    There are some of my tweets from overnight.



    h1

    Galloway in Bradford West: My 33-1 bet looking good

    Friday, March 30th, 2012

    This is what I wrote here on March 7th – just three weeks ago:-

    “..Could Bradford West break the pattern of LAB holds with a much reduced turnout? Could this be the ideal seat for the return to Westminster of the controversial Celebrity Big Brother star and ex-LAB and ex-RESPECT MP, George Galloway?

    Ladbrokes have just announced that they are offering 33/1 against him.

    This might be just the sort of seat where Galloway could just be in with a shout. It’s a long-shot, I know, but it’s the sort of bet that I like.

    He’ll get a mass of publicity and the question of whether he could beat Labour could dominate the media narrative. A lot could depend on how he gets on with the area’s Asian communities and how they view him.

    The full betting market is Labour 1/20: Conservatives 8/1: George Galloway 33/1: UKIP 50/1: Liberal Democrats 100/1″

    @MikeSmithsonOGH



    h1

    How many MPs will follow the Liam Byrne route?

    Thursday, March 29th, 2012

    Are many being tempted by elected mayors/police commissioners?

    The news tonight that ex-LAB chief secretary of the treasury (him of the “there’s no money left” fame) Liam Byrne is quitting the shadow cabinet is an indicator of a big new trend in British politics.

    For over the next year maybe 30 high-salaried powerful jobs as elected mayors and policy commissioners will be up for grabs and by all accounts many MPs are interested.

    In May we have elections for the first elected mayors of Liverpool and Salford. On the same day we have local referenda in Birmingham, Bradford, Bristol, Coventry, Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle-on-Tyne, Nottingham, Sheffield and Wakefield on whether their should be elected mayors.

    A key element of the switch is that the role of individual councilors is very much diminshed – most of the power resides with the mayor

    Those places that vote yes will hold elections for the new posts in November at the same time as voting takes place for the directly elected police commissioners in all parts of England apart from London.

    For those who feel their prospects on the national stage are fading these represent a huge opportunity and we’ll see some keenly fought selection battles. Byrne is not the only LAB figure with an interest in Birmingham. There are others throwing their hats into the ring.

    Of course you don’t need to be an ex-MP to stand but they’ll have a bit more name recognition.

    Whatever the chances are that there’ll be a spate of by-elections linked to the new appointments most of them, I guess, in current LAB seats.

    Tonight, of course, we have Bradford West.

    @MikeSmithsonOGH