h1

Will tomorrow wound Santorum but not confirm Mitt?

February 27th, 2012

Can a Mitt Michigan victory answer his doubters

The latest Michigan surveys from Public Policy Polling suggests that Mitt Romney is heading for a victory in his home state of Michigan. A fortnight ago the firm had Santorum 15% ahead there.

The pollster is superb for getting information out early and the latest numbers are based on fieldwork last night which only closed two or three hours ago. It also uses Twitter very effectively.

Mitt Romney’s at 39% to 37% for Santorum, 13% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich.

Mitt goes into election day tomorrow with a large lead in the bank. A total 16% of Michigan voters say they’ve already cast their ballots, but Romney has a whooping 62-29 advantage over Santorum with that group.

Santorum actually leads Romney 39-34 with those who are planning to cast their votes on Tuesday, but he’d need to win election day voters by even more than that to neutralise the advantage Romney’s built up.

After a week of intense media scrutiny there’s been significant damage to Santorum’s image with GOP voters in the state. His net favourability has declined 29 points from +44 to now only +15 (54/39). Mitt’s favourability is steady at +20 (57/37).

The real challenge for Romney is that Michigan is his home state where he should do well. The question is whether the actual winning margin exceeds expectations.

My guess is that we’ll see another low turnout election and the doubts within the party about Romney’s ability to take on Obama will mount.

There’s a PPP Arizona poll due out later and the signs are that this is very good news for Romney.

@MikeSmithsonOGH




  • http://tomknoxbooks.com SeanT

    Greece leaving the euro has been a probability for a while now. The last months of debate and bail-outs have all been a delaying tactic and a decoy.

    This is all designed to give the rest of the eurozone time to build enough firewalls twixt Greece and everyone else -to quarantine Athens effectively – and also to let the French, German, Dutch and UK banks etc diminish their exposure to Greek debt ASAP.

    The Germans must be thinking that job is nearly done, so they can  now start the process of “persuading” Greece to do a Captain Oates.

  • Anonymous

    Isn’t this just a bit like the Cleggasm when Labour were temporarily at third place in the polls? 

    And I could envisage a situation in the UK where UKIP might score as high as 20% in opinion polls, depending on events in the Eurozone.  I’m not saying that would necessarily convert into votes in the ballot box but it’s not that hard to envisage (at least, not for me).

  • Anonymous

    ‘Labour will field former MSP … and an Asian man’

    I believe that is now SLAB’s default selection criteria in Glasgow.

  • Plato

     Apart from Brian Paddick, are there any LD candidates you’re aware of?

    I haven’t seen any myself.

  • Anonymous

    Agreed on Greece going-it is just interesting to see how the “mood music” moves along.

    With regard to the banks-now that we are past the year end’s will that make it easier for them to take the inevitable hit when Greece leaves? I would have thought that it does as many have followed RBS and written off big chinks of debt.

    Also IIRC next week is the key week for the private owners ie hedge funds etc of Greek bonds to agree the new terms. The crucial thing seems to be whether this triggers all the CDS and the consequential insurance claims.

  • Anonymous

     I think the BBC should either do it properly or get out of the way.

    Then Sky could almost certainly do a pay per race arrangement. The BBC taxpayer bung hides the cost. The ITV decision to get out highlighted the cost. Sky can probably, with a big audience, mitigate the cost to the viewer.

    The days of the free lunch are over. The disappointment is how the BBC wastes our lunch money and gives us pap.

  • Plato

     UKIP did of course push Labour into third in the last Euro elections…

    I see Animal Count got more votes than Tommy Sheridan’s party…

    Conservative
    4,198,394

    UK Independence Party
    2,498,226

    Labour
    2,381,760

    Liberal Democrats
    2,080,613

    Green Party
    1,303,745

    British National Party
    943,598

    Scottish National Party
    321,007

    Plaid Cymru
    126,702

    Sinn Féin

    Democratic Unionist Party

    English Democrats
    279,801

    Christian Party “Proclaiming Christ’s Lordship”**
    249,493

    Socialist Labour Party
    173,115

    No2EU – Yes to Democracy
    153,236

    Jury Team
    78,569

    United Kingdom First
    74,007

    Libertas
    73,544

    Independent – Jan Jananayagam
    50,014

    Pensioners Party
    37,785

    Mebyon Kernow
    14,922

    Animals Count
    13,201

    Scottish Socialist Party
    10,404

  • Neil

    “Isn’t this just a bit like the Cleggasm when Labour were temporarily at third place in the polls? ”

    It’s far more sustained than that. One of the reasons I dont find it stunning (sorry Stuart!) is because Sinn Fein have been 2nd or close to second in many polls for some months (it’s only a 4% increase over December). And the reason is fairly obvious – they are the biggest party who can credibly oppose austerity (FG / Lab are imposing it and FF are mainly blamed for it). One of the big political issues right now is whether the Government should repay about 3 billion in bank debt due in March. Only Sinn Fein can credibly say “no!” and opposing austerity / repaying promissory notes is a fairly obvious reason for polling success. I doubt this situation will translate into SF getting a quarter of the Dail seats in the next GE but it should persist for far longer than the Cleggasm.

  • Anonymous

     You mean LibDems do not believe in democratic control of the police through representatives directly elected for that specific purpose.

    How odd.

  • http://twitter.com/MorrisF1 Morris Dancer

    The real travesty is that the BBC could’ve just let the deal lapse and it would’ve remained free-to-air.

    Incidentally, Channel 4 got no approach whatsoever, and were reportedly planning a grassroots effort to take F1 into schools and get kids into engineering and so forth.

    The BBC’s spending something like £20m on X-factor clone The Voice, so the argument about money is bullshit. It’s about priorities. The BBC’s terribly keen on empire-building, with total dominance of radio, BBC Three (which is worthless) and BBC Four (which has good progs but these could be shown on Two instead of so many repeats).

    When it comes to something that actually hits its performance targets (exceeding Wimbledon’s reach despite less airtime) they’re not interested, even when their own coverage is BAFTA-winning.

    *sighs* I’ll just have to live with it. It’ll be pretty shit offering tips after P3 and qualifying, but before I’ve actually seen qualifying and without seeing P3 at all, but there’s nothing to be done about it. Hopefully RTL will mitigate the problems.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Andrea-Parma/578831001 Andrea Parma

    Tánaiste Mary Lou!
     

  • Anonymous

    The Lib/Dems do not believe….they rather hope, or wish  or  maybe..and wouldn’t it be nice ..a bit wet raggy really…useless.

  • Sunil Prasannan

     I think Streep deserved an Oscar but the film itself could have done with a Beethoven moment:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHY2UzOonig&feature=related

  • Anonymous

    I feel for you MD.

    I’d already sold me soul to the old devil Murdoch, so will be enjoy the delights of Sky F1 for at least half the races. It will be interesting to see which service I prefer for the races on both Sky and BBC. I expect BBC for the build up, and Sky for the race itself.

  • http://twitter.com/MorrisF1 Morris Dancer

    Cheers.

    I can only hope that the Sky coverage gets audiences small enough to prompt a sponsor backlash, and that the next Concorde Agreement includes mandatory free-to-air coverage.

  • Plato

    Golly – a public official received over £80k from the Sun – that’s a lot of cups of coffee…

    Another journalist channelled £150k to public officials.

    > Usually lead to ‘an invasion of privacy/nothing more than ‘salacious tittle tattle’. I wonder how many brown trousers there are right now in public office land?

  • tim

    Dan Sabbagh ‏ @dansabbagh
     Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open…Crone email to Andy Coulson about what Rebekah Brooks told him in 2006 is a critical piece of new information.

    36mDan Sabbagh ‏ @dansabbagh Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open..:Crone killer mail to Coulson…says that Brooks told him that Mulcaire only worked for NoW and he was paid by NI…

  • Anonymous

    The government forced obscene cuts on the BBC. This allowed FOM to exploit the budget shortfall to construct a deal to get it on Sky. Much of the blame sits on the shoulders of Jeremy Hunt and his “efficiency savings”.

    Of course, neoliberalism also deserves its share of the blame because regulators have repeatedly allowed Sky to use vertical integration to entrench its pay TV dominance. There is virtually no chance of this changing since governments are terrified of News Corporation turning its media dominance against them.

    I’m hoping that F1 collapses in popularity like WRC and cricket before it.

  • tim

    Could the moderators please release the tweets from Keir Simmons and Dan Sabbagh.

  • http://twitter.com/MorrisF1 Morris Dancer

    You’re ill-informed.

    The BBC approached Sky out of the blue. The BBC had the money for the existing contract and could’ve just let it lapse in a couple of years. The BBC did not contact or negotiate with Channel 4 or any other potential terrestrial broadcaster. The BBC chose to retain BBC Three rather than F1, chose to retain the less popular Six Nations, chose to spend tens of millions aping the X-Factor, etc ad nauseum.

    A freeze, with guaranteed income of circa £3bn, is not an obscene cut.

  • Anonymous

    The Lib Dem price for delivering equalised constituencies is rising. Taxes on the rich, Lords reform, junking the NHS Bill. And I don’t imagine that will be all…

  • tim

    Dan Sabbagh ‏ @dansabbagh Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
    Consider what Coulson and Brooks appeared to have known in Sept 2006. What did they say to PM, parliament, in public statements etc

  • Anonymous

    You get the feeling that at some point David Cameron will have to answer some serious questions about conversations he had with Coulson before giving him a job at the heart of Government.

  • Anonymous

    That would be the PM at the time..one of those Labour lads..and was it said at one of the sleepovers..we wait to see..

  • Plato

    Indeed – The Observer and Voodoo Polling http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/4891

    Last month Chris Elliot, the Guardian’s readers’ editor,
    quoted a letter from a reader saying there “seemed to be a cultural
    problem among Guardian reporters that it is of no consequence if you
    completely misunderstand or mis-report the figures in a story [...] I
    hope that you can urge on the editor some training of reporters on basic
    understanding of statistics”. Chris Elliott said he had organised three
    sessions with external statistical experts for Guardian journalists in
    the past year (and Nigel Hawkes at Straight Statistics reveals he was one of them).
    The Observer’s readers editor should probably do the same. Earlier this month the Guardian’s front page story
    mentioned an open-access voodoo poll on the Royal Medical Journal’s
    website that had been touted round Twitter as if it was meaningful. The
    Observer this weekend was on a similar subject, but was worse – hanging a
    whole story on very dubious figures.

    The story
    is titled “Nine out of 10 members of Royal College of Physicians oppose
    NHS bill”, and claims that “a new poll reveals that nine out of ten
    members of the Royal College of Physicians – hospital doctors – want the
    NHS shake-up to be scrapped.” …

  • tim

    Not just Cameron.

    Osborne too.

  • Anonymous

    and Blair..and Brown ..

  • http://twitter.com/MorrisF1 Morris Dancer

    Could be worse. Osborne could’ve been on a yacht with someone and not asked for or received any money from him.

  • tim

    Another vistory for Daves summitry.

    norman smith ‏ @BBCNormanSRoyal College of Surgeons latest of colleges who attended PMs Health Summit to re-consider stance #nhsbill

  • Anonymous

    Oliver
    Are you OK-you seem to have suffered a sharp blow to the head??

  • Anonymous

    2006 – who was in power at the time ?

  • Anonymous

    So if the Met Polis were talking to Crone/Brooks in 2006 surely the Home Secretary knew ? And the PM ?

  • Anonymous

    It was one of those Labour lads..  difficult to work out which one was actually in charge tho..bit of a fudge…

  • old_labour

    Only Catholics get confirmed.

  • Anonymous

    Used at any rate to happen in CoE, too. Not a member any longer, so can’t swear to it now!

  • Anonymous

    No doubt New Labour were too close to Murdoch’s grubby organisation.

    That doesn’t justify Cameron’s Tories being even closer.

  • Anonymous

    All happened on New Labour’s watch, now we know why there was no inquiry.

  • Anonymous

    Ooooh, did they have slumber parties as well?

  • http://twitter.com/MorrisF1 Morris Dancer

    Closer than Gordon “Onesy” Brown and Rebekah “Fluffy Slippers” Wade?

    Unless you’re asserting Cameron’s shared a sleeping bag with a Sun editor I’m not sure that’s possible.

    It’s not like he’s the godfather of Murdoch’s kids.

  • Anonymous

    Has Cameron had many celeb sleepovers at Chequers..doesn’t seem his style somehow..and Coulson did get a note from his old Buddy Brown when he left 

  • Anonymous

    Public interest in phone hacking and fury at News International can be clearly seen from the take up of the Sun on Sunday.

    BBG reporting that initial estimates of circulation have been put at 3 million.

    That’s….er…….MORE than the News of the World  (cough) .

  • http://www.biologymad.com/ HD2

    Indeed.  After all, in was in their own manifesto – a rare (indeed, unique) example of the Conservatives watering-down a LD proposal…..

    The quicker we get a ‘dry’ Conservative Govt with a decent majority, the better!

  • Anonymous

     It still does.

  • http://scottish-independence.blogspot.com/ Stuart Dickson

    Please don’t use the word “Cleggasm” Lucy. Mark Senior follows these threads you know, and Cleggasms have him sobbing into his lavender-scented pillows, tightening his grip on poor teddy and reaching for his pink Kleenex.

  • Anonymous

    That must be a recent change. I got confirmed by the C of E (or strictly, the Church in Wales) in the late 1970s. I remember the classes distinctly.

  • Sunil Prasannan

     Did you hear about the psephologist from Krakow who moved to Haiti?

    He became a Voodoo Pole!
    :)

  • Anonymous

    And boxing.

    Boxing had massive viewing figures on free to air in the 90`s.

    All the major names were made there in Britain.

    You would be lucky to find a person who knew a professional british boxer now

  • antifrank

    That’s not right.  I was confirmed aged 15 in the United Reformed Church, which is about as unCatholic as you could get.  My parents’ church had only just agreed to allow organisations to hold tombolas on the church premises when we moved to the area.

  • old_labour

    Did not know that it applied to CoE as well.

  • Anonymous

    Yes, because the Premiership football is doing so badly at the moment isn’t it…

    Boxing is at a low ebb throughout the western world, as it’s simply not as attactive a sport due to it’s image, and the lack of character fighters.

  • Anonymous

    According to Peter Mandelson in his book the third man,Osborne apologised to him regarding his decision to realise details of their conversations .

  • Plato

    Oh dear – interesting re Tom Crone since he was a poster boy for the Left as being Mr Bringer Down Of Murdoch in the NI camp.

    Police briefed Ms Brooks, then editor of The Sun, about their investigation into the illegal interception of voicemails within weeks of the arrest of royal editor Goodman and private detective Glenn Mulcaire.

    Scotland Yard assured Rebekah Brooks in 2006 that it was not planning to extend its phone-hacking inquiry to include News of the World staff other than Clive Goodman, the Leveson Inquiry heard.

    She was told detectives were confident Goodman and Mulcaire were “bang to rights” but would only widen the case to include other News of the World employees if they found “direct evidence” of wrongdoing.

    The press standards inquiry heard that police also told Ms Brooks they uncovered evidence of more than £1 million in payments by News of the World publisher News International during the phone-hacking investigation.

    Tom Crone, the News of the World’s head of legal, summarised Scotland Yard’s briefing in an email headed “strictly private and confidential” to the paper’s then-editor Andy Coulson on September 15 2006.

    He began his memo: “Here is what Rebekah told me about info relayed to her by the cops.”

    It went on: “They suggested that they were not widening the case to include other NoW people, but would do so if they got direct evidence, say NoW journos directly accessing the voicemails (this is what did for Clive).”

    The email also noted: “The only payment records they found were from News International, ie the NoW retainer and other invoices, they said that over the period they looked at (going way back) there seemed to be over £1 million of payments.”

    Mr Crone’s message concluded: “They’re going to contact RW (Rebekah Wade, Ms Brooks’s maiden name) today to see if she wishes to take it further.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/leveson-inquiry/9108480/Scotland-Yard-tipped-off-Rebekah-Brooks-about-phone-hacking-in-2006.html

  • JonC

    O/T but why are the top two stories on teh Beeb website BOTH about the Leveson inquiry? Does anyone care?

    And how on earth did Charlotte Church get £600K for having her voicemails hacked? I would gladly supply anyone who wnated it all my personal details i could think of in return for such a massive sum! Surely the “hurt” and “distress” can’t have been all that bad?!

    It really sticks in the craw when all these whining celebs want recompense and “privacy” when they spend half their lives desperately trying get in the papers in the first place.

  • Richard Tyndall

    Collapse in the popularity of cricket? I trust you are being ironic. There is more money and more grassroots involvement in cricket than ever before. More people are playing the game than ever before and more people going to watch matches. In one year alone – 2008 – there was a 24% increase in participation according to the ECB. 

    The popularity of the World Rally Championship collapsed because the manufacturers got unhappy about how tough the races were and so castrated the sport. WRC used to be the most popular live spectator sport in Britain – and with minimal TV coverage. Now it is ruined and that has everything to do with how it is run and nothing to do with who is showing it on TV. 

  • dr spyn

    Must be one of the 12 inches to the foot scale model railways.

    I think it is to do with the 150th anniversary of the first London Underground line.

  • Anonymous

    Do you seriously believe the BBC approached Sky over a deal covering 6 years of F1 rights without FOM being involved? If so, I have a bridge to sell you.

    The BBC cut their single biggest expense and got a payment plan for their remaining obligations.

    Not only are the BBC getting a freeze (3.6% inflation, folks), the Foreign Office are putting the cost of the £237m World Service onto the BBC’s budget from 2014, as well as added S4C costs. The BBC also has added expense of covering the 2012 Olympics.

    You’re right: the BBC chose to retain a years worth of content on a channel over a sporting event (although the choice was apparently BBC4 over F1), retained an event that’s considerably cheaper than F1, and is spending a fraction of the money creating its own version of the most popular show in the world.

  • JonC

    Simply not true.

  • http://www.biologymad.com/ HD2

     All ‘communicants’ in the Anglican faith (world-wide) must be confirmed.
    The same is true of many other Christian faiths.

  • Anonymous

    I should imagine young Charlotte will give some of this money to charity ? No ? No ?

  • Anonymous

    http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-24038852-ill-curb-power-of-tube-unions-says-boris.do
    “Boris Johnson today vowed to reduce the power of union bosses by introducing driverless trains – and revealed that key Tube lines will be fully automatic within two years.”

  • Anonymous

    On Daily Politics we have a “new” Lib Dem peer in the limelight Baroness Jolly.  Drowning live.  Only a couple of million voters will see it.

  • Anonymous

    Apologies for what may well be an inane question, but does Leveson have the ability to compel people to appear at his enquiry?

  • Anonymous

    I can imagine a few might just be able to name Haye and Chisora, now.

  • Anonymous


    Not only are the BBC getting a freeze (3.6% inflation, folks), the Foreign Office are putting the cost of the £237m World Service onto the BBC’s budget from 2014, as well as added S4C costs.’

    How sad is that.

  • Anonymous

    ‘obscene cuts on the BBC’ – ?

    ‘neolibralism’? 

    A classic insight into the blinkerd addled spittlefest that passes for the socialist mind.

  • Anonymous

     ”the BBC could’ve just let the deal lapse and it would’ve remained free-to-air.”

    Not sure that would have been the case. Channel4 can no more afford it than ITV. I suspect that pay to view will become universal – even in Germany it is mooted – because Bernie wants so much for the rights.

  • Anonymous

     ”The government forced obscene cuts on the BBC.”

    the cuts should have been contained easily but the spendthrift BBC just cannot stop itself.

    Just ask how many ‘jpurnalists’ the BBC felt were necessary in Greece or LIbya for the ‘crisis’ and how many from other broadcasters and which output was better.