« Will tomorrow wound Santorum but not confirm Mitt?
LAB moves to three point lead in ComRes phone poll »
h1

Are punters’ reading the London Mayoral race right?

February 27th, 2012

Should Ken be better than a 36% chance?

All the polling in the past couple of months has had May’s London mayoral election as what US pollsters term – “a statistical tie”.

Ken’s been up by 2 and so has Boris but the lead is toggling between the two. The latest has the Tory in the lead.

In the national polls Labour is in a vastly difference position than four years ago when their share was mostly in the 20s. Also in local council by-elections up and down the country we are seeing the red team chalk up gain after gain.

Which all doesn’t make sense of the betting. Is Ken the value bet? I got him at 14/1 before he’d even been selected so I’ve got margins to play with but the current price does seem good.

@MikeSmithsonOGH
← Older Comments
  • Anonymous

    Surely the former has to be a contender for the funniest thing that it’s possible to say inadvertently as a commentator. Particularly in the way that it was delivered.

    If I had to bet that something now would be the best of those somethings in 1000 years time the Holding/Willey commentary would be right up there.

  • Anonymous

    Are there any signs Russian and China are amenable to being coaxed? Any movement from them at all?

  • Anonymous

     ”it isn’t Nick Cleggs NHS bill”

    Didn’t Clegg write  the foreword to it? And didn’t Clegg praise it in the media?

    How odd.

  • Anonymous

    I don’t think people associate the NHS disaster with the Lib Dems. It very much belongs to David Cameron, Lansley and the Tories.

    The public think the Lib Dems have been reluctant hangers-on to it, grumbling as the Tories press ahead regardless.

    Killing the Health Bill could revive the Lib Dems as a serious political Party.

  • Anonymous

    >>>>>>>>>>>betting post<<<<<<<<<<<<<

    Wow, interesting one this with Stan James

    Will Bashar Assad still be Syria President on Jan 1 2013?

    Yes 2.1
    No 1.67

    I'd fancy yes on that. Wouldn't bet on it though for moral reasons :)

  • MickP0rk

     I’d reply but apparently it’s also a forbidden subject now to add to the ever increasing pile.

  • Anonymous

     True, Summers when Brown was PM were simply more miserable that any other.

  • Stark Dawning

    Gordon Brown must surely publish the guest list of his pyjama parties. Sorry, but the Met seems to have been completely dysfunctional around that time. One can easily imagine some more-keen-than-capable flatfoot authorizing look-the-other-way ‘favours’ for someone who he felt was one of his own: i.e. a leading figure in the Labour establishment. This is no slight on Gordon, of course, but we need to know whom Rebekah hobnobbed with at these pyjama parties and were any compromising relationships struck up with other guests.

  • Marquee Mark

    Don’t forget the classic leg over commentary….

    http://www.nimisis.com/posts/brian_johnstons_legover_commentary 

  • MickP0rk

     That’s the sort of thing I would say if I could. :-)

  • old_labour
  • http://twitter.com/MorrisF1 Morris Dancer

    Aye, that looks like a winner to me.

    I also won’t be betting for moral reasons (and because I don’t have a Stan James account, but mostly because of morality).

  • http://twitter.com/MorrisF1 Morris Dancer

    They were certainly memorable in Yorkshire.

  • Anonymous

    Actually it seems from doing an internet search that the Holding/Willey episode may be an invention – I’d swear to have heard it, but it seems unlikely.

    Perhaps we still await the definitive sniggerer.

    Daily Mail link

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-566864/The-moment-BBC-cricket-commentator-stop-laughing-player-rod-down.html

  • Anonymous

    It is of course the case that whatever the Lib Dems do about it, to people who support other parties it will be wrong.

    Of course. It’s politics.

    But the Lib Dems should do what the right thing, the thing they believe in, and reap the long-term benefits.

    Kill the Health Bill.

  • Anonymous

    I would be interested in a party that championed a genuinely national NHS dentistry.

  • DavidL

    I predict the Comres has a labour lead of 3

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=757298205 Mike Quigley

    Big move for Santo to win Michigan with Paddy Power today. Cut from 100/30 to 6/5. Interesting.

  • dr spyn

    Katz Pilsner.

  • Anonymous

    The insurgency is built to last but you would be right that without outside assistance this thing could go on for years.

    Give it a week and we’ll see whether the world wishes to do something.

← Older Comments