politicalbetting.com

nialldermotmichael

I don’t disagree Richard, but the post I replied to was merely the latest is a long series of unpleasant and mildly deranged rants from that particular poster. Obviously the subject is one which exercises him somewhat.

Anonymous

You should at least have added a caption.

New Labour’s Murdoch boot lickers?

Anonymous

Keep an eye out for a mass release of emails from the corporate intelligence firm Sratfor.

This outfit provides intelligence and analysis to many big firms and many government bodies and NGOs..and had an informant network to match.

Its unlikely to survive in its current form.

nialldermotmichael

By the way, I’m a most-of-the-time lurker and I was interested to read the discussion a few threads ago about why more lurkers don’t post more often. Yes, I think the tone of the comments is often off-putting, I think more so for left-wing posters as for whatever reason those inclined to the right seem to be so very dominant on here. But I think one of the big reasons I don’t post more is just the sheer scale of most comment threads. With several threads per day at hundreds of comments each, keeping up with all the conversations on here can be a full time job in itself, as well as following and clicking on all the links too.

old_labour

Test

old_labour

Mainland Lib Dem MSPs donated this to the Museum of Scotland as it was too big for them and they had no further use of it.

Richard Howell

They should have thought of a bike share with the Scottish Conservatives.

old_labour

For fans of F1, it has one of Jackie Stewart’s racing cars near the entrance of the museum.

MickP0rk

LOL

http://twitter.com/Kateshon Kateshon

Oscars ceremony begins.

I’m nervous!

MickP0rk

Oh yes. And the brown stuff is going to fly.

MickP0rk

Just been hearing that on the news. She is not the public’s favourite whereas Rudd is. But on the other hand Rudd sounds like a bad loser who nobody can stand to work with.

Sounds like the Blair Brown feud all over again.

http://twitter.com/Kateshon Kateshon

Dujardin has tightened to 1.4

Anonymous

The Academy gave make-up to ‘The Iron Lady’. it means they’ve watched it, start panicking!

http://twitter.com/Kateshon Kateshon

Sandra Bollock

old_labour

Not as nervous as Meryl!

Anonymous

Santorum says he ‘almost threw up’ after reading JFK speech on separation of church and state

Former senator Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) on Sunday defended
a statement he made last October in which he said that he “almost threw
up” when he read John F. Kennedy’s 1960 Houston address on the role of
religion in public life.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/santorum-says-he-almost-threw-up-after-reading-jfk-speech-on-separation-of-church-and-state/2012/02/26/gIQA91hubR_blog.html

Do the Republicans want to win in November, or not?

old_labour

I like this paragraph from the Independent on Clegg’s proposals for HoL reform.

“It’s one of the most unpopular causes of all time,” says a Tory
minister about Lords reform. A Cabinet minister professes himself
baffled that Clegg is prepared to expend so much time, energy and
political capital on it. Another claims to be delighted that the Liberal
Democrats will be indulging in displacement activity for the next
couple of years. “It means they can’t disrupt things elsewhere. From our
point of view, it keeps the children occupied while we can get on with
something else. They’ll talk about House of Lords reform, and we’ll talk
about things that matter to voters, like the economy and welfare.”….

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/mary-ann-sieghart/mary-ann-sieghart-lords-reform-is-a-fight-that-nick-clegg-will-never-win-7441320.html

Richard Howell

The ALP is 60-40 down to the LNP on the 2PPV in Queensland, and is trailing the coalition by about 53-47 in polling for the next federal election. The astonishing thing is that all things being equal Tony Abbott is set to be the next Prime Minister of Australia. The ALP deserve it for the incompetence of the their current administration, but it is an extraordinary spectacle.

http://www.croydonloony.co.uk JohnLoony

Yesterday someone said that the betting odds were Gillard 1/10 Rudd 8/1 (or thereabouts), which made me think that the voting figures would be much closer – e.g. 55% to 45%. If the voting was 71 to 31, the odds should have been more like 1/20 and 50/1.

Neil

“Tony Abbott is set to be the next Prime Minister of Australia.”

And we laugh at Santorum!!

MickP0rk

They have what, till December 2013 at the latest to the election?

That’s not an impossible turnaround and no doubt the Gillard faction will now feel more comfortable with the Rudds having been given a beating.

But it’s a terrible message to the electorate because the public never have much tolerance for a divided party.

If it gets to the state of the Brown Blair feud can we expect joint election appearances from Rudd and Gillard on PPB’s and on the campaign trail through gritted teeth?

I think he’s likely to be cast into outer darkness after this but you never know.

MickP0rk

If Clegg had any sense or balls (I know but stay with me) then instead of protracted whining for years about HoL reform he’d get Cameron and himself on the record in a joint press conference stating unequivocally that the coalition want it and what the voting position will be.

Because until then it just sounds like Clegg’s barking at the moon and absolutely nothing will come of it.

Clegg was quick enough to back up Cameron on the NHS bill recently. Yet Cameron’s silence on HoL reform speaks volumes.

Anonymous

Similar issue to Gillard, where Bligh in Queensland lied to public and changed policies when she got in. She did well as front person at the floods but her government is terrible.
healths ervice issues make lansley look brilliant. Did nt pay half the staff for weeks if not months. Thousands on payroll computer failed as not tried in parallel.
her whole cmapaign is keeping out one potential MP, the popular Newman, who if he did not get in would mean some nonentity would represent party. If he takes a safe seat if he loses then that argument is shot. Too early to even admit he might not win in what is currently an opposition seat.
saying he should be in jail as his brother is being investigated by FBI was silly, and not risked being stated outside parliament. Bligh is desperate.

Richard Howell

The election has to be held before 30th November 2013, but it is open to debate whether Gillard’s government will last that long as her majority in the House of Representatives is already on a knife edge. Although Rudd was trounced today, if the result in Queensland in March turns out to be the bloodbath that the polling suggests it will be, another leadership challenge isn’t impossible. Rudd probably got just about enough votes to stay in with a chance.

I doubt that we will see too many joint campaign appearances. The whole object of Rudd’s appointment as Foreign Minister was to get him on board and on side. Evidently, that has failed and after his resignation statement and subsequent attacks against him made by Swan et al., a reconciliation simply won’t be plausible, even if they are pictured eating ice creams together!

http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

It would be interesting to see the odds for Santorum and Abbott being president/prime minister by the end of 2013.

Anonymous

It was based on the facts, Gillard is a hopeless PM and if the ALP had any sense they would dump her for Rudd. I was hardly demanding her assassination or that she be boiled alive in boiling water (even though that may be a tempting prospect to certain Aussies at the present time!)

Anonymous

I said 1.03 was the correct odds, not 1.12 as on Betfair. I was out by a couple of people but not much. I thought 32 to Rudd I think, would need to check.

Richard Howell

An accumulator with SJ (coalition to win the next federal election @2/7 & Santorum to be next President @12/1) gives compound odds of 16.71

old_labour

Maybe the poor fool sees himself as a latter day Lloyd George. Boy George would be nearer the mark.

Anonymous

I mention Tony in an earlier comment.

Anonymous

Abbot is a Rhodes scholar, supporter of aboriginal rights, (spends a lot of time very year with aborigines, not just for photo ops), surf life saver and good bloke, albeit with big ears and the media questioning his stance against global warming. In America he would still be deemed a radical liberal……….

http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

I read somewhere that Gillard would have gone if she had won by only a small margin. Maybe that affected the odds somehow.

MickP0rk

Shades of the John Major “put up or shut up” if Gillard can’t hold her party together then and it didn’t end well for Major even though he did manage to limp on till 97.

Anonymous

Gillard brought the fight on by rabid comments from the whippets in the cabinet, who abused Rudd as being apsychopath in the media.
She is an attack dog who takes no prisoners, and will change policies for self preservation. In fact she may not have believed them in the first place and just lied to Wilkie to get his support as an independent to get in government knowing she would shaft him when the time was right. Which happened days after she had the numbers from buying an opposition MP into the speaker’s role and removing her own MP from the psoition.
The fact she lies and Forrest Gump Rudd is seen as honest explains her woeful satisfaction ratings in comparison to him.

http://edmundintokyo.wordpress.com/ Edmund in Tokyo

PublicPolicyPolling ‏ @ppppolls
Santorum’s net favorability in Michigan has declined 29 points in the last week

The big question in this race was whether what happened to Newt in Florida – a combination of negative advertising and people paying attention – would also happen to Santorum in the other competitive races. The voting intention numbers haven’t moved as much in Michigan as they did in Florida, but as far as favourability goes, the answer seems to be that it will.

Richard Howell

Please. The Deputy Prime Minister is a latter day Lord John Russell.

http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

Given Romney’s abysmal performance in that sports stadium yesterday, I think Santorum can still just about pull out a victory in Michigan. Of course he could win the most delegates even if he narrowly loses the popular vote since they’re being allocated on a congressional district basis.

Richard Howell

Abbott’s satisfaction ratings aren’t much better. They are currently at -26% compared to -38% for Gillard.

http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

Maybe they wanted to be rid of Gillard but feared being branded as sexists which is a serious charge in a centre-left party.

MickP0rk

“who abused Rudd as being a psychopath in the media.”

That sounds spookily familiar from the Blair Brown feud.

Wait a minute…

Wasn’t New Labour spinner and all round d*ckhead John “jonah” McTernan sent to be Gillard’s media team strategist?

I think he was.

I believe I have just found the source of all the ALP’s problems.

You must purge yourself of McTernan’s influence right quick.

He helped with the spinning of the SLAB 2011 election campaign.
I don’t have to tell you how amusingly badly that ended for them.

Anonymous

That is why it is 54-46 and not 60-40 as it should be.

Anonymous

It is an issue, Abbot has trouble not bullying her. Abbot has torn a strip off Gillard at Question Time here in last 30 mins. Truth, lies, and skullduggery of Labour party who are “unworthy people under an unworthy PM”.

Anonymous

Conroy the comms minister said he was a psychopath, and many other comments are similar.

Anonymous

Mick Pork, the comment about McTernan is relevant. Dogs of war releasing vitriol against a former PM is the key issue in questions today.

http://edmundintokyo.wordpress.com/ Edmund in Tokyo

Al Jazeera has the Scottish Criminal Case Review Commission report on Abdel Baset al-Megrahi, the alleged Lockerbie bomber and Libyan NHS advertisement who was apparently wrongly convicted then wrongly released.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/02/201222618624894299.html

(Maybe occasionally two wrongs do make a right after all?)

Anonymous

Edmund, that will be very interesting. Why did Gauci get 2 mill from the Yanks remains a key matter in Scots law as it simply cannot be justified or allowed and evidence accepted as untarnished.

Richard Howell

It’s not really news that al-Megrahi’s conviction would in probability have been quashed. The SCCRC only refer a conviction to the High Court of Justiciary when a miscarriage of justice may have occurred and it is in the interests of justice that a reference should be made. The question (among others) for the High Court is why it allowed al-Megrahi to withdraw his appeal against conviction notwithstanding that it was manifestly in the interests of justice that it should have been determined.

Anonymous

The male female support breakdown in Gillard support is astonishing.
Nobody likes a conceited liar, who breaks her word on a regular basis for PERSONAL gain, and whilst women tend to forgive as she is the first woman in charge, men are not so forgiving.

MickP0rk

McTernan was right in the thick of the Blair Brown feud and still has a few dogs in that hunt.

I’m serious. It would not surprise me in the slightest if he was behind a vicious votriolic media strategy against Gillard’s enemies. That’s McTernan to a tee.

MickP0rk

The appeal was dropped with concerns about the Prisoner Transfer Scheme I believe. But Blair didn’t get his way and the PTS did not apply. So it is a question and though Megrahi was the one who dropped it there is still the matter of why.

http://www.biologymad.com/ HD2

All credit to you for calling this so well.
I’d thought that turkeys did not vote for Chrstmas: it seems Aussie ones do.

Welcome to the PB NightHawks Cafe

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH