Did weathercock ever pay up in the end? In cash form rather than his equally valuable absence.

No.

Most of the discussions about how 2015 will pan out are based on this parliament.  But when we get there it’ll be about leaders and manifestos, and plans for the next 5 years.  Mood music from the past will matter, which is why labour will want to talk about the NHS (and avoid the economy – fat chance of that working) but it’s silly to declare any party doomed based on this parliament; it’s plans for the next that will matter come 2015.

I wish you’d told me that when you were obviously getting things wrong before the election.

I get the big calls right.  Like who will be Prime Minister.

And I could tell you how much I made on Friday alone, but your head would explode…  Suffice it to say the Chancellor will be happy with his windfall…

Anyone think Julia Gillard will be out of office by Monday evening? The bookies don’t seem to think so.

Thank you.

“the most volatile, unpredictable, and just plain wackadoodle Republican-nomination contest ever”

Hard to argue with that. 

I feel that the Tea Party for the Republicans is much like Militant was to Labour.  They needed to be ejected and wither under the gaze of independent whack-job status.  They were clearly a Party-within-a-Party.

 I believe you.

This suggests Gillard still has the upper hand despite the headline

Australia’s Gillard Suffers Setback

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203960804577244121509669182.html

They are bound to get something of a bump if the economy picks up enough that people actually feel it, surely? Simply as being proved partly ‘right’ will secure some votes. Not enough to save them, too many jumped the second they worked with the Tories long before they got hit by Tuition fees or the like, which indicates they are unlikely to come back, but even if the Tories, as now, appear to be hit less hard by negativity from being in government, they will get some improvement I think.

If it happens – I don’t think the economy will pick up as he said. Next year we’ll get revised predictions and a new deficit reduction target in 10 years as opposed to 7 (formerly 5).

That’s awesome, Mark!

I’m curious : what do you do to earn so much cash?

One of my favourite Harry Enfield clips – Les the forgetful barman:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxg60c2CRjM&amp

Charles Clarke says labour leadership is failing.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/9106513/Labours-leadership-is-failing-warns-Charles-Clarke.html

o/t – Sinn Fein up to 25% in the polls in the Republic. I think it’s mostly a temporary blip now that every other party in the country is directly associated with the austerity measures being imposed. Next GE might see more SF seats but I doubt they’ll be the 2nd biggest party!

Wish I’d asked for odds on Martin McGuinness attending Ian Paisleys funeral twenty years ago.

There’s thick, then there’s Toby Young.

“Toby Young, The Sun on Sunday’s political columnist, risked alienating potential readers before the newspaper’s launch today, referring to the killing of schoolgirl Milly Dowler as “that murdered girl thing” on Twitter.

Young’s comment has offended those associated with the family, and provoked a Twitter storm. Solicitor Mark Lewis, representing the Dowler family, said: “I do not intend to dignify his comment by saying why it was wrong. If that is the standard of journalism at The Sun on Sunday then it seems that they have learnt nothing from the past.”

Young had written to the comic writer Graham Linehan on Twitter: “That murdered schoolgirl thing? Check The Guardian story. Turned out to be balls. Get off your high horse.”

Young told The Independent on Sunday that his comments were in the context of a Twitter spat with Linehan. “He referred to Milly Dowler as the ‘murdered girl’ and asked me how I could work for Murdoch. I was pointing out that The Guardian’s original story, in which Nick Davies accused Glenn Mulcaire of having deleted Milly Dowler’s voicemail messages, turned out to be wrong. Quite a serious error, given that it led to the closure of a national newspaper,” he said.

News International chose not to comment, nor respond to whether Rupert Murdoch would be taking any action against Young.

Young wrote of his own appointment: “When I open the new paper on Sunday and see my picture byline I’ll feel a warm glow of happiness.” He may now be hoping that his comments do nothing to take away from that glow.”

Euw!

He probably stormed off to a pub. Or to a meeting with a journalist to brief against his colleagues. Or to brief against his colleagues in a pub.

Romney hired a stadium in Michigan with capacity for 70,000 and only 1200 showed up.

Mr Romney, a local boy whose campaign once portrayed him as the “inevitable”
candidate to challenge Barack Obama, had intended to shore up his standing
on Friday with what was flagged as showpiece address on the economy.

Instead, he produced a clunker in Motown. His delivery was lacklustre, his ideas rehashed from earlier speeches and his venue was a campaign presentation team’s nightmare – an audience of 1,200 in a cavernous sports stadium with room for 70,000.

Asked about his prospects of beating President Obama in November, he managed to play down his own hopes. “I don’t think I have the best chance, I have the only chance – that may be overstating it a bit,” he
said, chuckling awkwardly afterwards.

Even his attempts to curry favour with the car industry – whose bail-out under Mr Obama he pointedly opposed – fell flat. The multi-millionaire served up fresh ammunition for critics who portray him as an out-of-touch elitist by listing the many American-made cars in his garages – including his wife Ann’s two Cadillacs…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/republicans/9106056/US-election-2012-will-the-wastelands-of-Motor-City-be-the-end-of-the-road-for-Mitt-Romney.html

Free wifi on the main Glasgow and Edinburgh rail line. It could be extended across the country.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/on_board_wi_fi_boost_for_rail_commuters_1_2139355

 ’the Beatles toured all over before they made it and they honed their
skills on touring stages. That option isn’t available today.’

We have all the Beatles back catalogue because Fitaloon is a fan, but is it okay to admit that I was never a fan? Seriously, only ever liked Norwegian Wood. Go figure….

“Wish I’d asked for odds on Martin McGuinness attending Ian Paisleys funeral twenty years ago.”

Your restraint in resisting the temptation to make a cheap jibe comparing the odds to those of David Cameron attending Nelson Mandela’s is noted and welcomed!

“is it okay to admit that I was never a fan?”

No! You’ll be demanding the right to be allowed a view on Scottish politics next!

 ’Lets see.

Deletiing emails and children with special needs may have consequences’

Not really, we all remember how Blair wanted to abolish all specialist schools so we could intergrate. And I definitely saw the resentment of many parents like yourself Tim, especially those who witnessed and resented what extra support going to specific children more challenged than their own.

‘Well he’s got mates running Ofsted and handing out ‘advice’ and waiting
on the sidelines to pick at the carcass so… hey ho. Fancy a long bet
he’ll be on all the private co boards of directors within a year of
leaving Govt?

I actually agreed with some of his initial rhetoric
– redressing the power balance in the classroom, more subject rigour
etc. But all he’s done since he’s gone all burning martyr is slag us
off.’

Got to ask, do you or Tim have a child with any special needs going though the current education system? Glad you feel free to make light political jokes about families in these circumstances.

The Sun On Sunday was not “developed at breakneck speed”. It’s a new name for the News of the World, after a bit of a business reorganization. It was obvious Murdoch was going to do this when he “closed” the News of the World, and he was probably planning the move well before that.

Thanks, Sunil. What a relief. I ate half a pound of chocolate raisins half an hour ago. Now I can feel virtuous about my healthy eating habits. 

BBC 4 to have it’s £54 million budget by 30%. I think they could good value for the money if that is all the station costs. Perhaps the BBC should tell some of their overpaid “stars” to sling their hooks.

I wonder if David Cameron is regretting his association with a company that employs David Blunkett as a lackey. Ironic that this company was given it’s first big contracts by Labour and the Government is copping the blame.

• Supermarket group Sainsbury’s claimed that A4e had “persistently
approached” its stores asking it to take on job seekers on unpaid work
experience, “against our wishes”.
• Fast-food chain Burger King became the latest firm to pull out of the Work Programme, citing “public concerns”.
•
New figures show that the rate at which the long-term unemployed have
come off benefits has halved since the launch of the Work Programme.
•
Eighty-five charities working with large private firms to help people
back into work have dropped out of the Work Programme since it was first
launched in 2010, citing growing concerns that they were being muscled
out of earnings.
• The Department of Work and Pensions, it
emerged, has exempted private companies in the Work Programme from
inspections by Ofsted, the standards body that previously inspected
companies involved in welfare and training.
• Labour claimed that
the government was aware of the suspected fraud at the offices of A4e
just weeks before Harrison was made an adviser to Downing Street on
family issues.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/feb/25/a4e-welfare-emma-harrison-properties?newsfeed=true

(Previous Thread) Surely you’re suffereing from the reverse of “Post Hoc ergo Propter Hoc” fallacy? It all went belly-up just after Tony Blair resigned, because Tony Blair had resigned, and because Gordon Brown had taken over.

Is this man a descendent of Charles Darwin?

He might improve with age. I will get back to you in 20 or 30 years time. Good that he is studying and taking it seriously.

I will read the link more closely later. Those who contribute to Wikipedia are admirable if they do not have a specific agenda and, instead, are more intersted in sharing their knowledge with the wider public.

 Not for me. More of a “Kings Arms” type guy here.

 You’ve obviously not seen it.
It’s precisely the same (inc price) as the Saturday Sun (50p: 11p to the newsagent).
It has only the page count (92) in common with the NotW.

It’s precisely what it says on the cover – the Sun on Sunday.

Tim and Fitalass, Re runrig, The Cape Breton guy is rather good, an inspired choice after Donnie M was no more. I like the Stamping Ground as there is a fair bit in english and my gaelic is limited to about 100 words.

I enjoy getting older. Would rather be older than dead.

Have tried not to post links to the Scottish press as it annoys some folk, but this is an interesting article.

KPMG last week took charge of three firms that are part of Edinburgh tycoon Malcolm Scott’s business empire.
A
spokesman for the Tory leader declined to comment, but party sources
said the financial blows would mean Davidson’s wish to create new
internal posts would have to be funded by London.

Scott, whose fortune was made in the property and grain sectors, has donated around £1.6 million to the party in recent years.

After the exit of Lord Laidlaw amid a “sex addiction” scandal,
Scott’s mix of corporate and personal contributions made him the biggest
donor to the Tories north of the Border.

He also hosted intimate dinners for high-profile Conservatives and is
a close friend of Foreign Secretary William Hague. But his generosity
has dried up amid the deteriorating health of his firms. The Sunday
Herald revealed in November that five of the large firms he owns or
controls were late filing their accounts.

On Thursday, administrators were appointed to take control of three
property and investment firms in Scott’s Dunalastair group. One of the
firms, BS 1001 Limited, was Scott’s holding company and lynchpin of his
empire. It used to be called Dunalastair Philip Wilson Ltd and had a
turnover of £34m in 2009. But the same year’s accounts noted a “material
uncertainty” which “cast doubt on the group’s ability to continue as a
going concern”. The firm lists Scott as its majority shareholder and
trades from a leased property in Edinburgh’s Old Town.

The second firm is Prestonpans (Trading) Limited, which owns the West
Port Hostel in Edinburgh’s Grassmarket and a vacant property in the
city’s North Street.

BS 1003 Ltd, formerly known as Dunalastair Investments Limited, is
also ailing. This firm owns property in Edinburgh’s plush Rutland Square
and Rutland Street. Administrator Gary Fraser said: “These businesses
have suffered as a result of the very challenging conditions following
[the] downturn in the property sector. ” Other companies owned by Scott
are not in administration.

The move gives Davidson another financial headache as she tries to
transform her struggling party. She was stung last month when Sir Jack
Harvie announced he was quitting as party fundraiser. The construction
tycoon had raised almost £16m since the 1980s for the Conservatives.

Another donor, John McGlynn, has been critical of Davidson and has not signalled an intention to hand over any money.

He last week proposed 10 “budget ideas” to Chancellor George Osborne
to get the economy moving. These included giving small firms a tax
“holiday” if they invest the saving in their business, as well as
backing a 100% corporation tax on banks that fail to meet lending
targets.

He said: “What has Ruth Davidson suggested to the Chancellor? Does
she have any ideas for the prosperity and health of Scotland?”

SNP MSP John Wilson said: “It is clear [the Scottish Tories] will
have to rely on financial support from Conservative Central Office in
London. This brings into question the level of autonomy Ruth Davidson
will have in the future decision making on Scottish issues.”

Labour MSP John Park said: “This is pretty embarrassing stuff for the Scottish Tories.”Scott could not be reached.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/political-news/administrators-called-in-to-tory-donors-firms.1330225490

inShare

Sounds about right.  To within a few weeks, at least.

BS 1001 does sound a little too close to BS 1.01 to be comfortable…

 Precisely!  It’s clear to which side of the mast (eh?) Murdoch has nailed his colours, but whether he will have any influence is dubious, at best.

The SNPs ‘referendum, then negotiate’ way forward seems wrong to me, though (but I can the Unionist difficulties with this next proposal): the full terms of any settlement should be negotiated FIRST, then voters can decide on something fixed, not a pig in a poke.

I assume, therefore, that after a Yes vote, and several years of protracted negotiations, then would then need to be a SECOND vote  (UK-wide) as to whether those terms were acceptable to everyone concerned.

I cannot see anyone giving any Govt a mandate to agree to undefined terms for the break-up of our country: thus a Royal Commission would be used?  In which case, why not get it going now, with a view to reporting in time for the referendum and any consequential effects on the composition of the HoC in May 2015?

Problem is, no-one knows where that point is. Seems to be that with this race, you chuck out bat-shit-crazy stuff until you are leading in the polls, when people actually look at what you are saying and go “but they’re bat-shit-crazy!” at which point you slide down the greasy poll and have to start climbing again. Or run out of cash.

Kinda like an enormously complex and expensive version of “Mousetrap”…

Who do we consider will be the “winner” in the Michigan primary – the guywiththemost votes, or the guywiththemost delegates?

Also, big majorities in favour of a mansion tax, maintaining the 50 pence tax rate and scrapping the NHS reforms.

There is a common theme: the general public has decided that austerity is something for other people to pay for.

 Tax what others have – taxing aspirations, therefore.
Nuts.

Besides which, normal house prices have a long way to fall yet – say 30-50% (as a multiple of average incomes, so stagnating for 5+ years would do the same thing)

No tim, as others have repeatedly told you, those cuts were real and planned, quantified and in their manifesto.
But
1.  No-one in Labour expected to be in Govt in June 2010
2. The Soc Ser provision was due to rise by a similar sum, to cover a transfer of responsibilities and care for old folk – generally all agree that keeping and supporting them at home is better than in hospital.  The solution the Coalition is proposing (ID-S) is to give the person a sum of money and allow them to choose where to spend it, rather than have some minion in an office somewhere decide what’s needed, when, by whom, and how often.

In short, Labour wanted to employ people, at taxpayer’s expense, to do what people are perfectly capable of doing for themselves – namely deciding what care and support they need, and employing someone to do it for them.

Just like parenting – where Labour wants to employ people to do a mother’s job.  Badly.

Bonkers.

However, it IS disingenuous to only give the ‘NHS cuts’ part of the story – but that’s precisely what any politician, anywhere, would do.

Just logged on and on thread – Romney needs to sack his campaign manager.  That video is toxic. 

Perhaps too the conventional wisdom on the Arizona debate was wide of the mark.  This poll shows race tightening following the debate http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/25/gap-shrinking-between-romney-and-santorum-in-arizona/ 

More value in laying Romney there on Betfair than backing Santo.  Perhaps OGH will clear up again as he did in Colorado.