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The GOP debate – reactions

February 23rd, 2012

The veteran US political strategist, Joe Trippi, got this most right in the tweet from him above. The question marks about Romney remain. Although he won the exchanges with Rick Santorum he nearly blew it by refusing to answer the final question about the “biggest misconceptions” about him. His over-bearing response was poor and made him look like a mean-spirited bully.

The betting has moved away from Santorum and tightened up on Romney. Money also seems to be going on Gingrich. I have taken some of my profits on Santorum.

@MikeSmithsonOGH
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  • Jonathan

    You’re a bit harsh on John Major there BenM.  Unlike Cameron & Brown he did manage to win a majority.

  • Anonymous

    140 what could be a good bet on olympics is laying team GB  to get more silver medals than any other colour. (yes there is a market for this!)

    Home teams sometimes get the favour of a decision in determining first and second and also there are more bronze medals awarded than other ones due to no 3rd /4th play off in boxing and martial arts (?)

  • Plato

    I have no time for Labour moralising.

    - They lost the right to point the finger on foreign affairs over the Dodgy Dossier

    - They lost the high ground to moan about cuts and welfare reform when saying they’d support it and then opposed every measure

    - They lost the argument to talk about law and order when they opposed Police Commissioners yet hoards of their own inc Prescott are standing to be one

    - They lost legitimacy on the NHS reforms when they presided over the unnecessary deaths of several hundred patients in Stafford alone and had a massive cut in NHS resources in their own manifesto

    - They’ve added nothing to the national debate in the last 2yrs. That isn’t Official Opposition, its pathetic.

  • tim

    There was a massive cut to NHS resources in the Labour Manifesto.

    Let’s file that one under “too thick to read”

  • Anonymous

    How dare anyone criticise the Tories, eh? It is absolutely outrageous.

  • Anonymous

    You have no right to say that.

  • Anonymous

    Also a betting point on the London job –I know Boris and Ken do not equate exactly to tory and labour in peoples minds but there is obviously still a lot of correlation.

    A lot of people are getting letters now saying thier child tax credits are stopping (anyone with a joint income above £26,000 it seems) . ie marginal voters usually. The credits will actually stop in April this year just before the London vote .

    I would back Ken at  bit at the odds available now as he wil be lower i feel in April

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    Has Ed Miliband got any hair left this afternoon? 

    Anyway, best of luck to the SNP in a possible Falkirk by-election.

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    Social workers clearly aren’t going to budge on interracial adoption unless threatened with specific laws. A shame it has to come to that of course but it’s their own fault.

  • Plato

    tee-hee

    DowningStCat
    *Hisses* Oh, my head…that’s the last time I let Eric Joyce talk me into going for a quick half.

  • Anonymous

    Would be an interesting one, but my money would be on labour unless the odds made it interesting.

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    The Labour vote wouldn’t have to decline much in Falkirk for the SNP to take the seat; the Nats could get very close to winning just by receiving tactical votes from LD and Tory voters:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falkirk_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    In a by-election, the Tories and LDs would almost certainly poll around 10% between them compared to 21.5% in 2010. Most of that 11.5% would go to the SNP I think.

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    Clicking on Syria on this map doesn’t seem to do anything. A bit odd:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2011/feb/11/guardian-twitter-arab-protests-interactive

  • Anonymous

    Reminds me of when I built my first pond I was desperate to get wildlife into it and asked a workmate who had a pond could he get me a frog tenant. After dropping it in I waited a few days to see if it was still there.Initially I could not find it but after a few minutes I did,along with 4 four squatters, sitting under the rockery base of the waterfall. I suspect frogs regularly migrate and innately sense water areas new or old.  

  • Anonymous

    173 all very true but maybe the rules for voting SNP have changed a bit now. when the prospect of Scotland leaving the Uk was a bit of a pipe dream (ie at last election) then many pro union people probably voted for the SNP just cos they hated labour and out of principle could not vote tory.

    Now i think people are now aware that a vote for the SNP is primarily a vote for scrapping the union. 

  • Plato

    IME  frogs and toads are great spotters of new homes. I built a garden puddle a few yrs ago and within 5 days it was full of frogs spawn and lawn was covered in them – I had no other ponds within hundreds of yards to my knowledge.

    When I dug my big pond [40x60ft] it was full of wildlife within a month inc water rats. My cellar is a big home for newts as its quiet, damp and dark – ditto the muck heaps are loved by slow worms.

  • Anonymous

    I agree. China US and Russia will be ahead of GB for sure. oz poor this time and may be around 8th. less swimming golds than usual.

  • Anonymous

    188 not sure how you can be ‘sure’ (and you have to be betting at 4/9) that Russia will be ahead of team GB.

    Home advantage is big in olympics

  • Anonymous

    The most pro patriotic Aussie people are in Earls court and not Oz, It happens when you leave the “hameland”". Absence makes the heart grow stronger.
    The Ashes tour for the English shows a level of pride in Englishness that is hard to beat as well. Doing it in Clapham or Coventry is not quite the same.

  • tim

    With the Lib Dems in Govt, don’t China and Russia get to veto any medals thay don’t like?

  • Anonymous

    When I was there making a profit did not seem to be a requirement. Accurate measurement pouring was deeply frowned upon.

  • Anonymous

    The days of Britain being in the top 3 are long gone, I can remember years where they were lucky to win more than a handful. So 4/9 for 4th or worse looks pretty safe to me.

  • Socrates

    Clips from the GOP debate:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/02/22/best-moments-from-the-cnn-republican-debate-in-arizona-video.html

    I didn’t watch it last night, but seeing clips I’d give it to Santorum. Romney scored some punches, and Santorum shot himself in the foot (to mix metaphors) at least once, but there were other times when Romney just took a hammering.

  • Anonymous

    No China and Russia get to veto any refereering decisions that go against Syria’s competitors.

  • Anonymous

    197 thats a good point Tim. But i dont think the poncy sports team GB do well in like rowing interests them enough to veto . they are not going to let the yanks win the basketball though!!

  • RodCrosby

    Be careful…

    Falkirk was Labour’s worst Scottish result in 2010 – by some considerable margin.

    In a by-election, with the Joyce factor removed, the Labour vote could actually rebound…

  • Anonymous

    203 well the days may be coming back (especially at home) -i am sure you are aware they finished 4th in China (of all places this must rank as being one of the most difficult venues for a good GB perfromance) now its on home turf I would say you need to factor in the home advantage which is usually 20% plus increase in golds. If you do this we are level with Russia ( a declining sports nation) . I would not take 4/9 (russia or germany)  will beat us

  • dr spyn

    Cynthia Bower on her way out.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/feb/23/nhs-watchdog-cynthia-bower-resigns?CMP=twt_fd 

    Not one of the more astute appointments to a quango – but I’m sure that Parkinson’s Law would have explained her promotion. 

  • Anonymous

    LE Standard – “MP Eric Joyce goes berserk in bar brawl at Commons”

    “A Labour MP was dragged away in handcuffs after going berserk in a House of Commons bar and headbutting a fellow MP.

    Ex-Army major Eric Joyce hit at least three MPs, including a Labour whip, in a rage last night when they tried to calm him, it was claimed.

    “There was blood spilled – it was like the Wild West in there,” said one stunned MP. Police were called but it apparently took five Commons security officers to restrain Mr Joyce, 51.

    A glass door was smashed as they dragged him away, still struggling. The MP for Falkirk was taken to Belgravia police station, where he spent the night and was still being held today.”

    Toast…!

    http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-24037762-mp-arrested-over-commons-bar-brawl.do#.T0Y95vdTYBg.twitter

  • dr spyn

    Maj Eric Joyce MP punch drunk.

  • Anonymous

    224 perhaps he was helping get the crime figures up in London in time for Ken versus Boris

  • tim

    PB Tory Poll.

    Which of David Camerons pledges was more stupid?

    A. “We will reduce net migration to the tens of thousands”

    The government’s hopes of reducing net migration to Britain to below 100,000 have suffered a fresh blow with the latest figures showing that it remained at the record level of 250,000 in the year to June 2011.
    The Office of National Statistics said that figures published on Thursdayshowed long-term immigration remained steady at 593,000 coming to live in Britain in the year to June 2011.
    Long-term emigration over the same period was also stable at 343,000 people going to live abroad, giving a net migration figure of 250,000.
    The figures for the first year of the coalition government showed that net migration actually rose from 235,000 to 250,000 in their first 12 months in office.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/feb/23/net-migration-britain-record-levels

    B. “I promise a bare-knuckle fight to save all District General Hospitals”

    Ministers fear the National Health Service could need a cash bailout to cope with the increasing demand for its services from an ageing population.

    A minister told the Independent that re-opening the Government’s spending plans would present a “huge problem” but added it was “hard to see how it can be avoided”.

    Labour have devised new plans to close hospital wards for the elderly so that they can be treated in their own homes, aiming to both improve the service and save significant sums of money.

    PolHome

    C. “No more pointless and disruptive reorganisations of the NHS”

    The Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health has joined called for the Government to drop the Health and Social Care Bill.A survey of the College’s membership found 79% wanted an “outright withdrawal” of the legislation. RCPCH president Professor Terence Stephenson said: “The RCPCH has never at any stage supported the Bill, but we have consistently engaged with Government to try and push for amendments to ensure the best outcomes for children. Although we have secured some changes – such as the Children’s Forum – it’s our membership’s views that these do not go far enough.”

    PolHome

  • Socrates

    The Tories are going to own up to breaking this net migration pledge at some point, so they may as well get it over with as soon as possible so they can recover from it before the next election.

    The sensible approach would be to put their hands up and say there are difficulties with the net migration approach, and propose an alternative, reachable target. That should be they will keep permanent gross immigration down below a certain number. Students coming for a few years and British people leaving shouldn’t matter.

    Or they could just stay indecisive and wait for the issue to really hurt them, like they did with Lisbon. Cameron seems to entirely lack the most basic sense of strategy sometimes.

  • antifrank

    As a non-Tory, that one is easy: C.

    A and B are the sort of rubbish that every leader of the Opposition comes out with and none ever gets held to account for.  C is in a different category altogether.

  • Anonymous

    No, Ohio is more conservative than Michigan with no Romney ties and Washington is a caucus unlike Arizona!

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/VGEDM47IXSDSJV2G7CNMMV2HTE Iain

    Obama gets a second term by default as the Republicans cant get thier brown stuff together, none of them that I saw and heard are credible so they need someone coming out of the blue yonder and it is probably too late for that. A moribund Obama Presidency is not good for any of us.  

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