The referendum: How changing the question affects response

February 2nd, 2012

Ashcroft poll on Scottish Referendum	For independence	Against independence
“Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?”	41	59
“Do you agree or disagree that Scotland should be an independent country?”	39	61
“Should Scotland become an independent country, or should it remain part of the United Kingdom?“	33	67

Which of the above is the fairest?

Michael Ashcroft has funded some polling (I assume by Populus) on the way that changing the words in the Scottish referendum can change the response.

The overall sample size of 3,090 was split randomly into three and one of the options for the different wording was put to each. Fieldwork was carried out between 26 and 31 January 2012. Results were weighted to be representative of all adults in Scotland.

Clearly suggesting that the change would involve leaving the UK has a big impact and no doubt London would like that to feature in some form.

The Electoral Commission will play a big part in this and I’m hoping to have an article written by a former senior official there in the next day or so.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Socrates

Hang on. I never claimed the murder rate was higher. You talking about the overall murder rate, and I mentioned gun-related deaths was higher to add extra context.
Peter the Punter

LOL!

You can put your duelling pistols where you like, SeanT.

Self-proclaimed victories don’t count.
dr spyn

Must be worth quite a bit of publicity for the brewery.

What is odd is the speed at which it was picked up by the BBC politics site, has she got some friends in high places?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16856309

Thsi is the gracious lady who ‘forgot’ to declare an interest in a recent bill, as she was sponsored by the GMB.
tim

Sacking someone for not having a growth strategy, in this government?

About as likely as Dave sacking a minister for not being across the detail.
Anonymous

No doubt the guardian CiFers are penning an article about how these beers are all out of date, xenophobic and should be changed.

Oh wait, they already have with the dodgy names: http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/wordofmouth/2011/aug/01/worst-beer-pumpclips
malcolmG

unlike you I have to work for a living.
Peter the Punter

Tut, tut, Malcolm….only fools and horses.
Anonymous

I wonder if the figures from the IFS take account of the higher yield ( IE Interest burden) that we would have had to pay on UK Gilts, This clearly would add further £10 Billion to the figure. As the rating agencies would have undoubtly trimmed the UK’s AAA credit rating and the yield on UK debt would be higher.
http://edmundintokyo.wordpress.com/ Edmund in Tokyo

They got asked whether it was OK to sell water as a dehydration drink, and said no. (Dehydration drinks have stuff to help your body absorb water, rather than just being water.). They were being trolled and they knew they were being trolled, but government bodies have to rule on things they’re asked to rule on, rather than just saying “troll”.
dr spyn

Has the very forgetful Kate Green remembered to look for Tennant’s Lager cans in the Stranger’s Bar to see if they pass the undrapped ladies’ test.
Anonymous

‘The popularity of Alex Salmond has plummeted 13% since December, as the
storm over a referendum on Scottish independence dominates the front
page
(still 22% though)’

When you consider that its been wall to wall Alex Salmond on the Scottish news over the last few weeks, no surprise to see this drop in his personal ratings. He has been over heavy on the nationalist rhetoric and bluster while very light on any credible details.
Plato

Crikey Edmund – have you been spending time with Kate Green MP?

:^O
Richard Nabavi

Perhaps some enterprising brewery should offer a special Parliament brew, with the taps adorned with a picture of the Speaker’s wife.
Max

Lansley still available at 20/1 with Ladbrokes. Even with dead heat rules it looks like a decent bet. I’m already on for a fair bit because I think that Lansley’s plans do too much damage to the government and they will need to get rid of him to make a clean break and rebrand the reforms.
Anonymous

is tim part of the reassurance or surrender tendancy ?

Is he behind Kinnock or David ?
Anonymous

You mean ‘rehydration drink’ there, rather than ‘dehydration’ unless your aim is to get rid of water….
Anonymous

I see tim is twisting himself inside out to justify his idiot economics. What an arse.
Plato

Jeez – what a po-faced lot. Imagine trying to organise a stag party for them…
Floater

I think Fred the Shred used to actually turn up now and again to do his day job.

Unlike Mr Brown
Plato

“with the taps adorned with a picture of the Speaker’s wife.”

Perhaps they could call it Bercow’s BedSheet or Bing Bong ;^)
http://edmundintokyo.wordpress.com/ Edmund in Tokyo

Yeah, that.
Anonymous

Regarding the 6N, here’s my verdict (and from a position of enormous strength given that I predicted an NZ win and a strong show from the French at the RWC ):

England – virtually impossible to predict – it’s a brand new side. They will be younger, fitter and more mobile but will be lightweight behind. Playing Farrell at inside centre will mean a lot of tackling for him and Hodgson certainly won’t be making any big hits himself. It’ll be tough. I don’t think England can win the 6N but they will be more exciting than they were at the RWC. Will rely heavily on the front five.

Wales – will be desperate for momentum and playing Ireland away to start is a very tricky start. Gethin Jenkins will be a big miss as will Charteris and AW Jones. Lineouts could be a problem, and without little Shane, who will provide the magic? Henson? The backrow – if all are fit – will be electric though.

Ireland – are they over the hill? O’Driscoll is a massive, massive loss and Earls is no tackler. Great runner, but not a tackler. I think O’Connell and O’Callaghan are over-rated and the scrum won’t be dominating anyone. Also – the halfbacks are young and inexperienced. The backrow will be awesome and watch out for Sean O’Brien at 7 - he is some player.

Italy – will come last and may get a few hidings. Decent pack but not enough power in the backs. Parisse will get best looking player again though!

France – have to be favourites. Saint-Andre will bring harmony to the squad and if they get it right they will be dificult to beat. Great defence, great discipline, great tacticians (Yachvili is back) and genuine class in Bonnaire, Dusatoir and Clerc. Going to France won’t be fun for anyone.

Scotland – are getting there. Kelly Brown will be a big loss but if they can keep the front line players fit they could surprise a few. Richie Gray is one to watch and the young lad Hogg (20 yr old Glasgow back) will be a star of the future. Scotland will rely on Parks to kick goals rather than by beating anyone out wide, but they are improving and will be a handful in bad weather.

1. France
2. Ireland
3. Wales
4. England
5. Scotland
6. Italy

And I don’t think anyone will win the slam.
Tissue Price

Good idea – I’ll have a pint of “3 Sheets To The Wind” please, barman.
RodCrosby

Another Georgia plaintiff’s proposed findings of fact, etc..
http://www.scribd.com/doc/80167062/2012-02-01-WELDEN-Proposed-Findings-of-Fact-and-Conclusions-of-Law-Tfb
Anonymous

tim

proven crap predictor Darlings numbers = good
IFS = bad

I suspect we will here no more about how much extra GO will borrow over “Darlings plan”.
Plato

Or perhaps ales named after MPs discovered tired and emotional?

Reckless Reckless

Mines A Charlie

Who was the Tory found dead drunk in the gutter after a conference? He deserves one for sure.
Anonymous

Nevada -LV Review

Romney 45
Gingrich 25
Santorum 11
Paul 9
Anonymous

Rasmussen General

Obama 47
Romney 43

Obama 50
Gingrich 38
Anonymous

PPP Ohio

Obama 49
Romney 42
MrsB

I just think it’s sad that men have to be lured to drink beer by pictures of naked or semi-naked women. It’s enough to make you think their brains are somewhere other than in their heads.
Anonymous

JoeMurphyLondon
Joe Murphy
#TopTotty beer ban — amusing new revelations abotu fiasco on our ESP blog bit.ly/xu8NTr
Socrates

Because women’s magazines never have photos of topless men?
Tissue Price

We actually had a barrel of Top Totty at our wedding (and one of Howzat! too). It seemed appropriate.
Plato

And you think women aren’t the tiniest bit influenced by David Beckham’s chiselled torso when shopping for their partner’s undies?

http://www.missxpose.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/david-beckham-underwear-ad.jpg
Anonymous

As a CAMRA member I find beers with amusing titles and fonts are usually rubbish.
http://awkwardedmilibandmoments.tumblr.com/ Anoraknophobia

Beer is just the start of it. We* can be lured to do pretty much anything by an attractive semi-naked woman. Well, the straight ones, anyway.

*I
tim

Lets not forget the David Cameron beer promotion

http://images.mirror.co.uk/upl/m4/oct2010/5/6/david-cameron-drinks-guinness-while-samantha-holds-florence-pic-conservative-party-545377696.jpg

Not sure about the beer, but he certainly loves the head.

And each MP could come up with their own promotional catchphrase.

“There’s nothing I like more than finding myself tied up in the Strangers Bar with a foaming pint of Masterstratter”

Said one.

“I’d do anything for a pint of Duckhouse” said another.
Anonymous

Good read on Greece

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/john-taylors-open-letter-greece-get-out-greece-get-out-right-now
Sweeney

As a real ale drinker, I can tell you that the picture on the tap is completely irrelevant to the decision on which drink is purchased. There is a long tradition of stupid/funny/offensive names and tap covers, sad that anybody should see this as an issue..
Tissue Price

Actually, we* find the non-straight women quite alluring too.

*I
Plato

UKIP have out done themselves – I couldn’t agree more.

“It suggests that to be in favour of equality you must be a dour-faced, insult-searching misery.”
Sweeney

I find the worst examples are the special edition “Christmas” ales…
tim

Speaking during a visit to the microbrewery based in Navestock Mr Pickles said: “The Brentwood Brewing Company launched its first brew in June 2006, ‘Summer Virgin’ which as marketed as ‘a taste of things to come!’

I need a drink.
Plato

From Twitter

BREAKING: Kate Green MP to call for a ban on displaying images of Jessica Rabbit and Betty Boo in the Commons
Anonymous

amberelliott
Amber Elliott
Top Totty has been served in Strangers’ before… in 2007 bit.ly/xXWmSZ

It’s OK when Labour are in office…
dr spyn

Ha, Ha.
Plato

Ms Green wasn’t an MP then so no wonder her crusading zeal didn’t address this shocking issue.

I’m so glad that Labour’s Shadow Equalities Minister is focussing on the Big Stuff.
Anonymous

amberelliott
Amber Elliott
Former Labour MP David Kidney endorsed Top Totty last time it was in Strangers’ in 2007 bit.ly/x6sAnj bit.ly/wYERWn
Kristin

TimesCrime Sean O’Neill
CPS will announce Chris Huhne charging decision tomorrow morning

Keir Starmer, the DPP, will announce his decision on Chris Huhne case “live to camera” around 10am tomorrow
Anonymous

Timonomics taking a beating today I see. Something to do with his all seeing high priest of financial genius Darling being called out as basically crap. I’m surprised at that since I’ve always considered Darling as ultra crap, not just normal run of the mill crap.

I’m just checking inside my clothing in case bits of my anatomy have fallen off. Waiting at a Stockholm bus stop for 20 mins in minus 15 degrees temperature, (and extra wind chill as a bonus), can lead to loss of important manly bits.
malcolmG

Now we have the full house of dreamers thoughts on teh subject, MoM , Doddy and FitaTory …. brightens a grey day
Anonymous

CPS Huhne update tomorrow @ 10am
http://awkwardedmilibandmoments.tumblr.com/ Anoraknophobia

There’s definitely a joke in there about your penchant for non-straight women and your user name.

Obviously I’m not vulgar enough to make it though

*cough* moving on…
tim

Huhne eased to evens with Ladbrokes, Lansley cut to 14/1 and PP cut Gillan to 7/2, which I don’t understand in the slightest.
dr spyn

gun sight over huhne over on guido.
Anonymous

That surely can’t be good for Huhne. I would have though that any ‘no evidence to continue’ would have gone out as quiet as possible.
Anonymous

Cable to Energy.

Laws to business.

Rest unchanged.
http://awkwardedmilibandmoments.tumblr.com/ Anoraknophobia

I see Vicky Pryce has a new car…
Plato

It’ll be a total anti-climax if the DPP stands up in front of 200 cameras and says – Meh, we’re not going ahead. Move along now, nothing to see…
http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

“You don’t have much confidence in the intellectual abilities of your electorate, do you?”

That’s rather my point when you claim they’re too cretinous to understand the meaning of the word ‘independence’. If you’re fully confident of their ability to understand a simple question, why are we even having this discussion? The proposed question will clearly do fine.
old_labour

SKY NEWS. Chris Huhne will learn tomorrow if he will face charges on speeding issue.
Tissue Price

“Live to camera” surely a strong indicator of charging? Dropping the case would be a press release job.

EDIT (as Slackbladder has already surmised)
http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

“Do you agree that Shetland and Orkney should be an independent country”

One day you’ll wake up to the fact that the Scottish government actually supports the right of Shetlanders and Orcadians to self-determination. It’s the usual suspects that have a problem with the idea – the Brit Nats.
Kristin

Would plod inform no10 first in the circumstances? And all the changes announced at once if it goes the against Huhne?
Anonymous

Whilst the Westminster village gets themselves into a lather about a Guest Ale, the message from this week is that Britain is no longer where you want to do business…

http://www.cityam.com/latest-news/allister-heath/britain-now-anti-business-nation

and

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2095334/Who-campaign-capitalism.html
Anonymous

Who does Huhne’s job ?
Anonymous

I reckon Clegg might prefer Ed Davey to Cabinet than an immediate return of Laws
Plato

It’s all rather odd – the CPS have made their decision and are waiting 20 hrs to announce it?

Either Mr Starmer loves being a tease or he’s *too busy* doing something else right now.
Anonymous

How about Lansley out, Cable to health and Laws to business.
tim

If Huhne is off over a legal matter, Laws can’t return, his expenses were way too dodgy.

Dave may as well cull some deadwood and have a total reshuffle.
The problem he has is he hasn’t got any women to promote in the next tier down.
http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

“But you need Westminster’s say-so to have a proper referendum.”

You mean a ‘binding’ one? As we’ve discussed a number of times, it’s highly questionable whether that term has any meaning in the UK constitutional framework – but consider this. The 1975 referendum on the Common Market was not in any sense of the term legally binding. Did that mean it was not ‘proper’?
http://twitter.com/tracklyweb eek

One day the Scottish Nits will look at a maritime map and discover the consequences of Shetland becoming self-determinating. At which point they will change their mind via rapidly.
Anonymous

”
I reckon Clegg might prefer Ed Davey to Cabinet than an immediate return of Laws”

Ed Davey at Business ? Give me strength.
dr spyn

If Kate Green goes to Settle, will she call for the closure of Ye Olde Naked Man Cafe?
Anonymous

But won’t a live announcement that he’s going to be charged make selecting a jury more difficult?
Anonymous

Gives time for the loaded pistol and glass of whisky option.
Plato

I really can’t see one disgraced minister being replaced with another one – Laws will come back in a wider reshuffle so it gets lost in the noise.
dr spyn

Kristin – Hope your arm mends quickly. I think I have done something similar recently.
Kristin

Well, that was my first thought as well. (checks slip)
Anonymous

Well we;re assuming a lot. But IF the DPP goes ahead with the criminal prosecution of a sitting cabinet minister, he’s surely got a pretty strong case. An orange booker lib dem would be my guess.
http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

“One day the Scottish Nits will look at a maritime map and discover the consequences of Shetland becoming self-determinating. At which point they will change their mind via rapidly.”

For a party that is frequently accused of being obsessed with oil, you can safely assume the thought has occurred to them at some point over the last 35 years.

The penny will drop eventually. Self-determination : we actually believe in this stuff. Why don’t others?
tim

Lamb for Lansley
Clark for Huhne

Would make sense, as they both know the fields, and would put maximum distance between Cameron and the NHS chaos, although it’s too late for that now.
Anonymous

If you mean Minister of State level, then yes I would broadly agree….but at PUSS, then Maria Miller or Anne Milton might be worth a punt in a wider reshuffle.
Socrates

That would upset the agreed Tory-Lib Dem balance in the cabinet.
Kristin

Thanks Dr Spyn.
Plato

“Would plod inform no10 first in the circumstances?”

I’d be very surprised if they didn’t – Number 10 will know by now – very small group to sort fall out either way.

If Huhne isn’t charged – lots of why not questions/is it one rule for HMG etc, if he is then …

The fact that HMG/Clegg have said earlier this week that if charged Huhne was a gonner, they clearly have an idea which way the wind in blowing.
tim

shadsy might like to confirm the rules of this market, from what I remember it pays out under dead heat rules if people leave on the same day.
old_labour

I am astounded that such a benefit ever existed

PAYMENTS for children making their holy communion and confirmation are being reviewed by Minister Joan Burton at the Department of Social Protection.

The financial support system for families has not been reviewed since 1995 and have to be changed to reflect the current economic environment.

€3.4m was spent last year on 14,000 “exceptional” payments for parents on social welfare at an average of €242.

The figure is being cut to €110, he said….

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/holy-communion-and-confirmation-payments-being-cut-by-government-3008789.html
DavidL

My guess would be insufficient evidence but a desire to justify that decision and deal with the allegation of one rule for them…

I really can’t see the DPP explaining why someone is being charged at a press conference. This is not America and we just don’t do things that way.

Mind you I used to think we didn’t take years to determine fairly straightforward allegations like this either. Huhne stays would be my bet.
Anonymous

And, of course, Huhne himself will surely already know.

Probably nothing, but this odd sentence appeared in today’s sketch of yesterday’s PMQs by Quentin Letts in the Mail:

“Behind the Speaker’s Chair, Chris Huhne stood, a figure of exhaustion. He rubbed his eyes for about a minute. His head hung low….”
antifrank

If we have a decision on Chris Huhne tomorrow, the position of Andrew Lansley looks altogether more vulnerable in the light of that earlier tweet.
Anonymous

Good points – I can’t see why if he was being charged they wouldn’t just post a release.

Possibly not confident of securing a conviction.
Plato

Kevin Scholfield on Twitter has told Pat Hennessey at the DT one MP charged with expense fiddling didn’t know until the DPP announced it on the telly.

Perhaps it is more like the US after all…

KeirSimmonsITV: I’m told Chris Huhne will not be informed of Crown Prosecution Service decision until tomorrow morning
http://awkwardedmilibandmoments.tumblr.com/ Anoraknophobia

Reading that CityAM article, my irony meter would turn to molten slag if Fred Goodwin becomes the catalyst for the country becoming business-friendly again.
Anonymous

and would put maximum distance between Cameron and the NHS chaos, although it’s too late for that now.

Far too late. A reshuffle would do nothing.

Drop the bill, or go into the next election toxic on the NHS. That’s Cameron’s choice.
Anonymous

MrHarryCole
Harry Cole
RT @RobDotHutton: On #Huhne, I recall that CPS decision NOT to prosecute on cash-for-honours was also announced live on the telly. <-exactly
Tissue Price

Yes, that’s on Ladbrokes’ site “Dead heat rules apply if more than one leave on the same day.” Now 4/6

Paddy Power (10/11) have the slightly bizarre “Does not include cabinet reshuffles” which is an IBAS case-in-waiting if ever I saw one.

Stan James (4/5) appear straightforward: “Who will be the next member of the Coalition Cabinet to leave their post?” but then add “Dead Heat Rules Apply”.

WH (4/6) don’t seem to have a specific rule.

Anyone but Ladbrokes would be my advice for anyone trying to get on late.
Anonymous

Any evidence the voters are remotely concerned about the NHS at the moment ?

Seems like things are on the up for some hospitals.

http://news.sky.com/home/uk-news/article/16161062

“A private company has unveiled ambitious plans to turn around a “basket case” NHS hospital.”
DavidL

If a decision is finally made about Huhne this might finally allow a reshuffle to take place. I am sure the government has been reluctant to have a reshuffle and then almost immediately have to reshuffle again on the departure of a senior cabinet member.

I still very much hope Vince is removed from business and the job is given to someone who has an understanding of the subject. There is so much to do there on the supply side and it is ever more urgent, especially after the poor PR (from a business perspective) in recent days. I find what Laws did troubling to put it mildly but I think they need him back. I would like to see Lansley moved too but I think that is very unlikely.
Kristin

IsabelOakeshott Isabel Oakeshott
Carina Trimingham certainly seemed very cheerful over lunch with friends in PCH. Not with me, I hasten to add.

politicalbetting.com

The referendum: How changing the question affects response

Which of the above is the fairest?

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH