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The referendum: How changing the question affects response

February 2nd, 2012

Ashcroft poll on Scottish Referendum For independence Against independence
“Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?” 41 59
“Do you agree or disagree that Scotland should be an independent country?” 39 61
“Should Scotland become an independent country, or should it remain part of the United Kingdom?“ 33 67

Which of the above is the fairest?

Michael Ashcroft has funded some polling (I assume by Populus) on the way that changing the words in the Scottish referendum can change the response.

The overall sample size of 3,090 was split randomly into three and one of the options for the different wording was put to each. Fieldwork was carried out between 26 and 31 January 2012. Results were weighted to be representative of all adults in Scotland.

Clearly suggesting that the change would involve leaving the UK has a big impact and no doubt London would like that to feature in some form.

The Electoral Commission will play a big part in this and I’m hoping to have an article written by a former senior official there in the next day or so.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH
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  • Tissue Price

    Hmm, yes:

    Patrick O’Flynn
    @oflynnexpress
    My instinct says Huhne will get off. Odd 2 do “show trial” announcement if charges are 2 follow given current sensitivities over due process

    I’m starting to rethink my initial view, now wouldn’t really want to lean one way or the other.

  • Anonymous

    Have you looked at a maritime map re. Orkney yet? You were blathering on about their vast offshore resources a few weeks ago.

    ‘via rapidly’

    Is that a stopping-off point on the way back to the withered bosom of the UK?

  • old_labour

    A gloomy assessment of the proposed EU fiscal pact from an Irish commentator

    The fiscal compact is a bad joke. It is clearly drawn up by people who have no understanding of the rudiments of economics. It will drive Europe further into recession. If history is anything to go by, the political beast that will arise from the ashes of the economies of the debtor countries could be much more radical than anything we have seen in years.

    This is ‘Angela’s Ashes’ — 21st century style.

    Angela is driving a bulldozer through the EU and its institutions and in the process of trying to save the euro, she — together with Sarkozy — is destroying the EU.

    Italy has just signed up to halving its debt-to-GDP ratio in 20 years. Do you have any idea what that means? Italian debt-to-GDP ratio is 120pc. It means that the Italians — who largely self-finance their own debts — are going to take 60pc of GDP out of the economy over the next two decades — a 20th every year. This is ludicrous, even if it were possible.
    But it’s not possible because consider what is happening in Europe right now. Think about the world as it is, not as the politicians who met on Monday night would like it to be.

    Here in Italy, youth unemployment is running at 30pc. In Greece, it is 51pc. In Spain it is 48pc and in Portugal it is 31pc. In Ireland, unemployment amongst young men between 15 and 19 is 45pc and one in three young men between 20 and 24 are on the dole. (I have just read excellent research on Irish unemployment by economist at NUIM Aedin Doris. Sobering but realistic…..

    http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/david-mcwilliams-eu-has-hit-selfdestruct-button-as-world-moves-on-3005706.html

  • Kristin

    We’ll know tomorrow. At least it’ll be over :)

    @KeirSimmonsITV: I’m told Chris Huhne will only be informed of CPS decision ‘shortly before’ it is announced: ht.ly/8PDPG

  • Anonymous

    Absolutely-Why don’t the westminster Government pose the question right away?-oh, just a minute, they need the oil, be it Scottish, Orkney or Shetland.

  • http://twitter.com/tracklyweb eek

    Which you corrected me on.

    I note that your memory is better than your ability to read as this time around I ensured that I didn’t mention Orkney.

  • Tissue Price

    Oh no it won’t, there’ll be months of recriminations on here either way.

  • Anonymous

    ‘If’ Huhne is forced to resign it would be a mini LD reshuffle.

    It was reported a while back that Cameron would not be having a wide ranging reshuffle until later this year at the earliest.

  • Anonymous

    People are rushing to speculate and there is just insufficient evidence or precedent on which to form a considered judgement.

    There have been public announcements on a decision to prosecute and public announcements when a decision not to prosecute has been made.

    These have been in high profile cases – and where a decision to prosecute was made, it didn’t seem to be a factor in the final court case as to the fairness of the trial.

    Indeed, given the widespread publicity over the Huhne case over many, many months, one more bit of TV coverage is neither here nor there IMHO.

    As there has been a very long delay between the events which may, or may not, have involved criminal actions, there is a case that it is not in the public interest to proceed – but given how much effort the Police and DPP have gone to in order to acquire all the evidence, that might not be a consideration.

    My hope is that Huhne is prosecuted – simply because he is Huhne.  But that, unfortunately, is not enough to get him banged up for a long stretch.  It ought to be.  But it isn’t.

  • Anonymous

    No-the SNP will just campaign even more strongly there to improve on the best ever result on the list vote achieved for Holyrood 2011
    -finished just behind the fading LibDems but well ahead of the Tories, Labour and even UKIP.

  • Tissue Price

    Thanks Simon, we can try to read too much into things at times!  What would be spectacularly funny would be if the CPS don’t press charges but Cameron sacks him anyway, on the ‘balance of probabilities’ rather than ‘beyond reasonable doubt’.

  • Anonymous

    ‘If’ Huhne made an error it was in denying that his wife took the points.  ‘If’ she did and then exposed him he should have admitted it.
    That would not have been a resigning matter – even for a libdem who are traditionally a bunch of sanctimonious holier than thou pontificators.

    But did he …?

  • Anonymous

    If, say, Dumries and Galloway and the Borders voted to stay in the UK while the rest of Scotland voted to leave, what would be the situation then?  

  • DavidL

    I am not suggesting it would be immediate but I suspect that we have not been the only ones frustrated by the CPS’s disgraceful handling of this case.

    It has stymied the government’s hands for months and months. It might even have saved Vince his job when he last made a complete prat of himself.

    I repeat I do not think it will happen but moving Lansley would allow the parking of the Health bill while a “fresh pair of eyes” looked at it and we finally got a bill in something like a final form before it proceeded. 200 government amendments at this stage is an admission of failure. if this were to be done t’were well to be done quickly.

    This must be Cameron’s number 1 regret in his first 18 months.

  • Kristin
  • Anonymous

    This is Ireland …

    Anyway – its appalling the church itself does not help alleviate hardship caused by its own ceremonial.

  • Anonymous

    At least an admission that you don’t know much about the subject.

  • Anonymous
  • MrsB

    I am still planning to have cereal for my breakfast tomorrow.

  • Anonymous

    No referendum is ‘binding’.  Parliament is sovereign.  having called a referendum its unlikely that parliament would vote against the result.
    The Scottish parliament would still have to vote and agree an independence deal.

    However the SNP would be unwise to go for independence if the vote was 50.1 to 49.9 in favour.  But thats up to them.

  • Anonymous

    The Passport controls would have to be moved further North..

  • Socrates

    An article for SeanT:

    http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/fukuyama/2012/01/31/what-is-governance/

    “I have no doubt that more democratic accountability will improve
    governance in many poor countries in Africa, Latin America, and the
    Middle East. East Asia is different, however, insofar as it has a very
    long tradition of relatively high-quality centralized bureaucratic
    government.”

  • tim

    Just to correct one thing.

    Vines resigned, as reported on here, last December, Huhne was Toast, as reported on here, was in May.

    And the fresh pair of eyes following Lansley would see that he has been implementing the bill on the ground before it has passed through parliament.

  • Anonymous

    Aren’t they supposed to shrivel up and disappear inside your body?  Have another look (if it does not upset the little old lady at the bus stop) -  they may indeed have gone.

  • dr spyn

    Just seen this on Twitter. ”
    It costs $120K to sponsor your brand as a Top Trend on Twitter.Top Totty managed it today for $0. Good work MPs!”

    Kate Green must be so proud of her work promoting a SME today, with a bit of help from Stella Creasy, Bevanite Ellie, Kerry McCathy and the sisterhood.

  • Plato

    FHamilton
    Chris Huhne is listed as a guest speaker at The Guardian’s open weekend. There will be lots to talk about

    :^)

  • Plato

    OT  This is seriously clever mini-flying robots – the formation stuff is WOW

    http://youtu.be/YQIMGV5vtd4

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Geoffrey-Harrison/665801094 Geoffrey Harrison

    The truly poetic thing now would be for Huhne to imagine the game is up and resign tonight only to find the CPS announcing tomorrow that there’ll be no prosecution.

  • Mike Smithson

    New thread

  • Plato

    Stella Creasy thought Jessica Rabbit was a rabbit. Another MP corrected her… How out of touch can you get, tsk ;^)

  • Anonymous

    I take it all back – you are a sad git after all.

    But just to join the club I will add to the collection
    http://transform-drugs.blogspot.com/2008/10/transform-submission-to-doh-alcohol.html

    Two lovely people.

  • Philiph

    I think Huhne will escape the long arm of the Law.

    A combination of a shortage of incontrovertible evidence (ie He says vs She says) and difficulty in providing a fair trial as so much media time has left the public full of information that is dripping with varying degrees of veracity and malice.   

    I also think he should stand trial, as Jo Average would be prosecuted in the same circumstances.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    You make a good point.  We must hope that interest payments on debt might be lower as a result.

  • Anonymous

    Growth strategy

    Its a lie to say there is no growth strategy

    http://cdn.hm-treasury.gov.uk/2011budget_growth.pdf

    You are confusing growth with pre-election stimulus (known as bungs or bribes in some quarters).

  • Anonymous

    One thing is for sure if I see it on a bar I will buy a pint.  It won’t be at £2.70 though (except in wetherspoons)

  • Anonymous

    On the other hand somebody has been wasting a lot of police time.

  • Anonymous

    Among other things, if carried out, I assume a further chunk of Northern Ireland would disappear into the Irish Republic :-)

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