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A new phone poll & Florida for PB NightHawks

January 31st, 2012

LDs up 3 while LAB regain the lead

There’s a new ComRes telephone poll out for the Independent and the figures, with changes on the last phone poll from the firm are in the chart above.

Not much change except the Lib Dem share moving up 3 to 14%.

The non-VI questions all follow ComRes’s standard pattern of making a statement and then asking whether respondents agree or not. I loathe this approach but it is all we’ve got

The pollsters finds that Most people still blame Labour for Britain’s economic woes. Asked whether the Coalition is more to blame than the previous Labour Government for the current state of the economy 26% agree while 62% disagree. Amongst LAB voters 48% think the Coalition is more to blame but a surprisingly high proportion 42% disagrees.

Asked whether they trust Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne to make the right decisions on the economy, the response was 35% to 55% disagreeing – a net “economic trust” rating of minus 20 points.

LAB’s position is much worse. Only 24% trust Mr Miliband and Mr Balls to make the right decisions on the economy, while 65% don’t – a net rating of minus 41. Amongst LAB supporters 42% do not trust the party leader and Shadow Chancellor to make the right decisions, while 51% do.

And so to Florida

Voting has been taking place all day in the four state in the 2012 primary season. The polls close at 8pm 0100 UK time when we should get exit poll projections. The big question is the size of Romney’s victory.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH
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  • Anonymous

    Some people do but it seems a funny time to change your mind.

  • http://twitter.com/mrnonnymouse NonnyMouse

    Wall St journal live blog here: http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/01/31/live-blogging-the-florida-primary/?mod=e2tw

    Polls close 8PM EST which I think is 1AM GMT. Too late for me…

    Romney will win anyway.

  • MickP0rk

    Just before the May council elections? What makes you think that? ;^)

  • Anonymous

    Or it may just mean that this particular councillor is a bit of a plonker. 

  • Tim B

    The hell with exit polls – Heidi, the prognosticating canine, is calling this one for Romney.

    Her Super Bowl prediction will be coming up on Friday – we still have to work out a few details of the scientifically accurate, unbiased experiment to determine the winner.

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    I’m guessing that a 50-30 win for Romney would pretty much seal the nomination for him. Would others agree with that?

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    The Drudge exit poll is unofficial I thought?

  • MickP0rk

    It must be true then. ;)

  • Tim B

    Most polls close at 7pm EST, just those in the western part of the state, which is in the central time zone, close at 8pm EST, 7pm CST.

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    In most past elections I think they used to release the Florida exit poll at 7pm eastern time while the Panhandle was still voting.

  • Neil

    ‘Or it may just mean that this particular councillor is a bit of a plonker.”

    At this time of the electoral cycle 99% of defections are down to deselections.

  • Kristin

    Guess so.. there’s some stuff on CNN as well 
    http://edition.cnn.com/2012/01/31/politics/florida-primary/index.html?on.cnn=2  but not had time to read it, trying to  do 3 things at once with one arm out of service.  Sorry. :)

  • Anonymous

    I asked about the SNP. 

  • Neil

    “trying to  do 3 things at once with one arm out of service”

    Just not good enough, Kristin!!

  • Kristin

    Not the first time I heard that today!

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    That’s okay. Any information is welcome.

  • http://twitter.com/mrnonnymouse NonnyMouse

    I don’t think they can publish exit polls until 8pm. They are publishing some stuff, just not the candidate %’s.

  • Tim B

    Remember that after the Florida primary, approximately 5% of the total Republican delegates will have been allocated, 95% to go.

    February is light on primaries and caucuses – NV on the 4th, MN, CO and  MO on the 7th, ME on the 11th, and AZ and MI on the 28th.

    March brings us Super Tuesday on the 6th, with 10 states voting, including my home state of Georgia, plus a busy month of primaries.

    But this race is about perception. That affects the money. And, as Tip O’Neill used to say, money is the mother’s milk of politics.

  • Kristin

    Damaged my Deltoid muscle, so right arm bit useless at the moment, and painful :(  Dogs! 

    sorry wrong reply … lol thought it was Tim B asking ..

  • Anonymous

    Ah, excellent. Australia v India in a T20 is on tomorrow morning. Fun.

  • Anonymous

    Polls bubbling back to Labour after a little bubble to the Tories. No change, basically.

    But lots of fascinating domestic politics going on. Yet few threads on it for a long time.

    Has Mike lost interest?

  • Anonymous

    What a dipstick you are.  You really have trouble with the English language and basic logic.
    Everyone welcomed the removal of the knighthood.  Thats ‘everyone’. YOU said it was your friend ‘cammies’ doing when it was made by an independent committee.

    That’s you,  MickP0rk, saying it was Cameron opening a can of worms, when even by this your latest appology for an excuse of a post you admit the decision was made by the Forfeiture Committee. Heaven knows they had good reason.

    Are they all like you in the SNP?

  • Anonymous

    True. True. But he’s seen the light. Rejoice.

  • MickP0rk

    There’s plenty of money still to be made in the GOP circus.

    Will Santorum keep going after tonight I wonder.

    Newt’s said he’s not about to drop out and intends to go all the way.

  • MickP0rk

    Calm down dear.

    I know your puce faced ranting is because banker bashing is very popular and Cammie has jumped on the bandwagon saying this was right but you had better get used to it because this won’t be the last time their pay gets a massive spotlight shone on them.

  • Tim B

    In federal elections, they publish exit polls immediately the polls close. This has several times discouraged west coast voters from going to the polls, (80% of the US population lives in eastern or central time zones), as they know before they go that their candidate has lost.

    In Canada they don’t allow the networks to broadcast elections programs until polls close in the province, but that’s not the case in the US.

    Exit polls being released now on Fox

  • Anonymous

    What’s fascinated you in domestic politics that hasn’t had a thread so far this year & which relates to political betting?

  • Anonymous

    %
    52 Romney
    28 Gingrich
    11 Santorum
    7 Paul

    1% of precincts reported

  • Tim B

    Florida is of course a ‘winner take all’ state for delegates – 50 at stake.

  • Anonymous

    Clearly greater care need to be made in awarding honours.  Isaac Newton had to wait ’til about 80 before he got knighted and only then as a blatant political expedient.
    A return to less frenzied times might be more appropriate.  But I doubt it will happen.

    Tonight is a huge embarrassment for Labour.  Perhaps an investigation into the relationship between Gordon Brown and Sir (currently) Victor Blank is now due?
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1146069/PETER-OBORNE-Lloyds-TSB-boss-Victor-Blank–crony-gift-disaster.html#ixzz0Pi0G7ZFu

  • Neil

    “But lots of fascinating domestic politics going on. Yet few threads on it for a long time.

    Has Mike lost interest?”

    Yes! I think it’s a disgrace that there has not been a thread on the Plaid leadership election (my 5/1 tip in now odds-on favourite, did I mention that before?!). Is this what we pay the TV licence for?!

  • Tim B

    Florida exit poll – who understands the problems of average Americans?

    Romney 34%
    Newt 27%
    Santorum 18%
    Paul 14%

    Most unfair campaign?

    Romney 37%
    Newt 34%

  • Anonymous

    52% Romney after 9% precincts reported.  He’s blowing away the competition.

  • Neil

    Wont Newt do better in the panhandle which is still voting? Not enough to overturn this but .. you know .. better!

  • Tim B


    Is this what we pay the TV licence for?!

    No – keep paying it so I can continue to enjoy Top Gear!!!

    Isn’t it about time you had a drink? ;-)

  • Anonymous

    Yeah you know loads of interesting domestic politics compared to everywhere else:

    Lets compare:

    Major international issues:

    Eurozone and extending out the global economy, Iran, a country that looks increasingly like a basket case is full of internal tensions, is developing nuclear weapons, can damage the trade of oil through the Persian Gulf..elections soon.

    Syria: The politics of the street protest and rebellion and a long stable regime in danger of being overthrown in a rebellion thats is essentially fuelled by the Syrians themselves in a region of the world that can send shockwaves through the rest of the world.

    USA: voting for the man who will take on the man who has the title ‘most powerful man in the world’ and theres good money in it.

    UK: some arguments over people bonuses and knighthoods.

  • Tim B


    He’s blowing away the competition.
     Yes, looks like Romney is the Elton John of politics ;-)

  • Anonymous

    Yep, he should do better than being beaten by 26% lol

    My word, he’s going to be rather angry tonight, hopefully.  The Romney campaign have played an absolute blinder, great debate performances and a deliberate strategy to make Gingrich angry.  Some would say the Goldilocks comment was a little unfair, but hey-ho.

  • Tim B

    the I-4 corridor is the key place

  • Sunil Prasannan

    I always thought of you as pretty ‘armless!

    Get well soon :)

  • Anonymous

    Keep it up, you are very inventive. And sad.

  • Anonymous

    Not when the margin is this big in the rest of the state.

  • Sunil Prasannan

    Darn it! Why did I play SC in the Election Game? Could have predicted FL so much better!

  • Kristin

    Thanks Sunil, hoping it’ll just be a few days as there’s not a lot I can do about it. :)

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    25% reporting:

    Romney: 258,989 (51%)
    Gingrich: 143,027 (28%)
    Santorum: 59,886 (12%)
    Paul: 34,020 (7%)

    http://us.cnn.com/?hpt=ed_US

  • Neil

    The margin is *coming* from the I-4 corridor!

  • Anonymous

    Yokel, well said!! And many thanks for your regular updates on the situation in Syria.

  • Anonymous

    %
    51 Romney
    28 Gingrich
    12 Santorum
    7 Paul

    25% precincts reported

    Gingrich the clear Conservative choice.  Santorum got no bounce from the debates (I didn’t think he would).  Ron Paul way back at the moment, easily his worst performance.

  • Anonymous

    When a candidate is winning by over 20% there is no ‘key’ to the state.

  • Kristin
  • Tim B

    Romney has 3 major questions to answer:

    1 – is he tough enough to take on Obama and win?- time will tell, but it looks good.
    2 – can he withstand the attacks on his wealth and business career?- so far so good
    3 – can he attract the conservative vote?
    - according to exit polls in FL, 70% of conservatives voted for someone else. But the 30% he got is increasing each primary. It was 20% in SC.

  • Tim B

    The I-4 corridor is where the people are – it’s the two biggest media markets in the state.

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    The Panhandle is probably going to vote heavily for Gingrich.

  • Anonymous

    Romney vs ‘the Conservatives’  323,866 v 267,915.  Even if one conservative got out the race, Romney would still win Florida.

  • Anonymous

    I watched the whole of the Cameron statement and questions on the Parliament Channel this afternoon. Impressions? OK, I am a Tory, but I do recognise that Millipede’s response was effective, indeed I was becoming unsettled at some of the points he was making, and the Veto for Christmas was a good jibe, even Dave laughed at that one.
    But, Cameron dealt with him very effectively, and he made much of Labour’s lack of clarity as to what their own policy would be.

    Backbench questions from Labour were llargely ineffective, and easily dealt with. The Usual Suspects on the Tory backbenches were really quite supportive, even Bill Cash seems to have got the point that the treaty agreed to by the 25 is NOT a European Union treaty.

    I was struck at one facet of the session. After 30 minutes, the Speaker ran out of Labour questions, and for 35 minutes, he had only Tory members to call on. What does this show? Lack of interest by Labour members, a lasagne party to attend, the realisation that Labour hasn’t got a policy on Europe and that Cameron had already beaten off every Labour attack earlier in the session?

    Ed M. performed better today than on previous occasions, but he really is no match for Cameron. Even when he has what he sees as a good case, he fluffs it, because his “good case” turns out not to stand up to scrutiny.

  • Neil

    “When a candidate is winning by over 20% there is no ‘key’ to the state.”

    The area that boasts 50% of registered Republicans is pretty key in a republican primary.

  • Anonymous

    Sorry to hear that Kristin, hope you recover quickly. How are the pups?

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    Washington Post – top 5 counties to watch:

    Brevard, Duval, Miami-Dade, Orange, Pinellas:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/five-counties-to-watch-in-the-florida-primary/2012/01/31/gIQAyuMIfQ_blog.html

  • Anonymous

    Romney is winning everywhere…

  • Kristin

    Just one pup, very lively. :D  

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    40% in and it’s 50-30:

    http://us.cnn.com/?hpt=ed_US

  • Anonymous

    Im surprised the don’t have a county called Walt.

  • Anonymous

    Only 5% of the electorate was younger than 29.  Helps explain Ron Paul’s numbers.

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    One thing I’ve noticed is that there’s usually a discrepancy with the percentage reporting, because some of the networks give the percentage of precincts reporting without accounting for how populous the precincts in question are, whereas other channels give a percentage which does take this into account.

  • Tim B

    Disney World is in Orange County and Osceola County

  • Anonymous

    Been there plenty.

  • MickP0rk

    At least 1114 delegates to win the nomination.

    Far more betting opportunites and debates to come in the GOP circus.

  • Tim B

    Most of those are I-4

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    Brevard County – one of the Washington Post counties to watch – is where Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral are located.

  • Kristin

    Germany is continuing its push for controls over Athens’ budget, despite rebuffs from Greece and other euro-zone countries at Monday’s European summit. 
    Behind Chancellor Angela Merkel’s quest for strict supervision of Greek spending lies growing frustration in Berlin that Greece has failed to meet its deficit-cutting targets or overhaul its economy, which were the conditions of its EUR110 billion ($145 billion) bailout in 2010.   
    http://www.dowjones.com/products/djfxtrader/articles/BerlinAthensTensions.asp 

  • Anonymous

    Milliband on form in the commons today,we agree on that…It is also interesting the time Cameron spends attacking Milliband both today and in the interview in Brussels yesterday…Contrast this with Blair who never mentioned his opponents and barely recognised their existence…Milliband is slowly making an impact and the PM knows it…Remember,no one kicks a dead dog

  • Anonymous

    You are doing a valiant job of defending EdM – but at the end of the day, he is failing.  Not badly enough for his ‘colleagues’ to push for his rapid removal – but still failing to an extent that the whispers will continue to grow in volume and frequency.

    Britain needs a strong opposition party with a leader who offers clarity and direction.  Labour is not that party at the moment and Miliband certainly isn’t that leader.

  • Tim B

    Fox News announcing – they have been at the top for 10 years today, holding more than 140% advantages over MSNBC and CNN.

    Like them or hate them, they have truly crushed all opposition.

    Florida polls now closed, and the prediction is (no surprise) Romney by 17%, 48 to 31.

  • old_labour

    Fox News calls it for Mitt.

  • Kristin

    CNN  likewise, not really a hard call lol.

  • Anonymous

    CNN calls it for Mitt. 

    Now how to get Gingrich angrier?  Perhaps Romney should come out early, declare victory and in his speech call for an end to negative campaigning amongst Republicans. 

  • Anonymous

    Exit Poll
    %
    46 Romney
    32 Gingrich
    12 Santorum
    8 Paul

  • Anonymous

    Failing at what?Labour still leading in both polls today…I think he is on course to prevent a Tory majority and the NHS issue hasn`t even started playing out yet

  • Anonymous

    Can beat Obama Rom 58 Gin 33 San 6 Pau 2
    Tea Party Rom 40 Gin 38 San 14 Pau 6 Romney wins tea party!
    Evangelicals Gingrich 39 Rom 36 San 19 Pau 5

    The Mormon wins the tea party and was within 3% of winning evangelical Christians..

  • Anonymous

    Killer Stat
    Exit polls show HUGE gender gap.

    Romney wins men 41-36.
    Romney wins women 51-29

  • Anonymous

    ‘Germany is continuing its push for controls over Athens’ budget, despite
    rebuffs from Greece and other euro-zone countries at Monday’s European
    summit.’

    Kristin, I am getting increasingly frustrated at the lack of real forensic focus on these issues from the British media when it comes to the Eurozone crisis. Watching the BBC this morning, the whole focus was on Cameron and the usual suspects within his party. I think that we are being very let down by this. Yes, we need to scrutinise our Government’s position in all of this, and of course provide Ed Miliband with a response. But like the situation in Syria right now, we are being very poorly served all round.

  • Anonymous

    Failing to articulate any substantial policies.  Failing to secure an enduring polling lead.  Failing to register as a PM in waiting.  Failing to win the economic argument.

    Look at the figures beneath the headline numbers.

    Miliband is not seen as a leader – not even half of those willing to support Labour see him as a leader.  His approval ratings are awful.
    Miliband is not seen as a potential PM.
    Labour has massive negatives in terms of the key economic polling data.

    Given the economic situation, Labour should be 5 to 10 points in the lead – but they are behind with ICM – which everyone accepts as the leading pollster in terms of accuracy.

    If you call that success – you are welcome to it.

    But I suspect you know all of this – which is why you cling on to specific polls rather than looking at the overall picture and the underlying trends.

    Hey ho.

  • Kristin
  • Kristin

    jimantle Jim Antle 
    Romney won voters who want to grant illegals citizenship, let them stay as temporary workers, or deport them by similar margins.

  • Anonymous

    ‘Contrast this with Blair who never mentioned his opponents and barely recognised their existence…’

    That is simple untrue. Blair/Brown and New Labour spent nearly 13 years in Office blaming the last Conservative Government for everything bar the weather. Oddly enough, the one thing they didn’t credit the last Conservative government with was the golden economic legacy they inherited. Yet the current Opposition would have you airbrush the legacy of 13 years of Labour Government and that debt and deficit they bequeathed to the nation and the current Coalition.

    Gordon Brown’s response on being informed of the healthy state of the Treasury books in 1997 was not very gracious. Liam Byrne on the other hand informed his successor that there was no money left.

  • old_labour

    Mitt met a voter who has only one home.

  • MickP0rk

    Mitt trying desperately to emulate human emotion. It’s not pretty.

  • Kristin

    No Newt bashing… so far

  • old_labour

    He is going to cut taxes, cut spending and increase the military. I will be interested to hear the specifics.

  • Anonymous

    Romney attacking….Obama.  The only things he’s said about Gingrich were complimentary, Gingrich will be tearing his hair out.

  • Anonymous

    You can read his budget plan on his website.

  • old_labour

    A hurricane would not disturb one hair on Callista’s head.

  • MickP0rk

    His SuperPAC will pay for it. It’s just won him Florida.

    Or he’ll have a Swiss bank account set up for that kind of troublesome accounting. ;^)

  • MickP0rk

    That was a quick flip-flop even for Romney.
    He says the election won’t be a bidding war for goodies now.

  • Anonymous

    Paul Begala, extremely partisan Democratic Strategist: It was a good speech, he did what he needed to do.

    Now for would be President Newt…

  • old_labour

    I scanned through it, but you need to be on Facebook to download it properly. Lots of words in it.

  • Anonymous

    ‘He is going to cut taxes, cut spending and increase the military. I will be interested to hear the specifics’

    For a moment there I had a flashback……..to George W Bush/Greenspan/Brown and New Labour before the global economic tsunami! Seriously, its a bit scary that the Republicans in the US and the Socialists in France are living on a different planet from the rest of us and economic reality.

  • Anonymous

    Have you read Romney’s budget plan?

  • Kristin

    timothy_stanley Tim Stanley 
    Palin says she’ll back Newt in Nevada. #FLPrimary

  • Anonymous

    Is she renting her endorsements out state to state?  She’ll soon get the reputation of being the kiss of death for a candidate that wants to win.

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