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A new phone poll & Florida for PB NightHawks

January 31st, 2012

LDs up 3 while LAB regain the lead

There’s a new ComRes telephone poll out for the Independent and the figures, with changes on the last phone poll from the firm are in the chart above.

Not much change except the Lib Dem share moving up 3 to 14%.

The non-VI questions all follow ComRes’s standard pattern of making a statement and then asking whether respondents agree or not. I loathe this approach but it is all we’ve got

The pollsters finds that Most people still blame Labour for Britain’s economic woes. Asked whether the Coalition is more to blame than the previous Labour Government for the current state of the economy 26% agree while 62% disagree. Amongst LAB voters 48% think the Coalition is more to blame but a surprisingly high proportion 42% disagrees.

Asked whether they trust Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne to make the right decisions on the economy, the response was 35% to 55% disagreeing – a net “economic trust” rating of minus 20 points.

LAB’s position is much worse. Only 24% trust Mr Miliband and Mr Balls to make the right decisions on the economy, while 65% don’t – a net rating of minus 41. Amongst LAB supporters 42% do not trust the party leader and Shadow Chancellor to make the right decisions, while 51% do.

And so to Florida

Voting has been taking place all day in the four state in the 2012 primary season. The polls close at 8pm 0100 UK time when we should get exit poll projections. The big question is the size of Romney’s victory.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH
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  • Kristin

    Looks like it, doesn’t it?  lol. 

  • Kristin

    where’s newt ? did he scuttle off.. oh apparently not

  • Anonymous

    Gingrich looks deflated.  Complains about the elite media…again. 

  • MickP0rk

    LOL Newt’s hardly about to give up. Not even a bit.

    Straight into attacking Mitt.

    Romney and the GOP establishment better get ready to repeat their massive Florida spend everywhere else.

  • Tim B

    Callista’s hair do is even more unmovable than Indiana Jones’ hat

  • Kristin

    46 states to go, but he isn’t on the ballot in one of them lol

  • old_labour

    ‘People against money’

    Newt, the outsider.

  • RodCrosby
  • Anonymous

    Gingrich: We won’t have a Republican campaign, we won’t have a Wall St funded campaign…

    Reality at last.  In the meantime he’ll make do with Las Vegas money.

  • MickP0rk

    Newt still hasn’t learned not to ramble. He rambles in victory he rambles in defeat.

  • Kristin

    she’ll need to wash that before she can get a comb through it, that’s for sure.

  • Tim B

    Remember – Obama is running as a Washington outsider.

  • Tim B

    She takes it off every night, and parks it over Jeremy Clarkson’s crash helmet

  • Anonymous

    Gingrich writing up a New Contract with America he claims.

    The deficit went up $1 trillion after the last contract was implemented as the social security pot was raided.

  • MickP0rk

    The “outsider” with less money. ;^)

    Let’s face it though George Bush managed to fool people into somehow being an ‘outsider’. This would be the son of a President Yale educated Bush the outsider.

  • old_labour

    There must be drag bars somewhere that have ‘Callista lookalike’ contests.

  • Kristin

    tbh, Mitt’s wife at least seems quite natural, does Callista speak ?

  • Anonymous

    “Strange” : David Gergen summing up Gingrich’s speech.

  • Anonymous

    ‘Have you read Romney’s budget plan?’

    Yes, that is why I had a flashback to the Bush administration which set the wheels of the current economic crisis in the US in motion.

  • MickP0rk

    Newt and Mitt are still running hard against their imaginary Obama.
    Imaginary Obama has declared war on the catholic church and religion apparently.

    I doubt real one is very worried by this circus.

  • old_labour

    Ru Paul looks natural in comparison.

  • Anonymous

    “Graceless” : Gloria Borger summing up Gingrich’s speech

  • Tim B

    Gingrich talks of getting control of the US Senate.

    A stat to remember – of the 33 seats up for grabs in November, including the 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats, the Democrats have 23 seats up for reelection, the Republicans only 10.

    It will be interesting.

  • Tim B

    Chris, CNN is liberal through and through – what do you expect them to say?

  • Kristin

     I thought that was weird, especially the end.  Maybe it appeals to US conservatives. 

  • old_labour

    I wonder what Newt would do if he walked into a fast food joint and was told they had stopped serving breakfast.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eREiQhBDIk

  • Anonymous

    9/11 & a President who didn’t veto a spending bill in his first term, including huge expenditures on prescription drugs and education might have something to do with the deficit increasing. 

    Whether Iraq & Afghanistan were right or wrong the costs of those campaigns are in excess of $1 trillion. 

    If you think raising taxes at this time will help America, then even Pres. Obama would disagree with you, Obama wants to retain the Bush tax cuts for most Americans.

  • Anonymous

    davidfrumdavidfrum
    Remember when Obama got into trouble in NH for saying Hillary Clinton was likeable enough? That was Walter Raleigh compared to Newt 2nite

    stuartmillar159 Stuart Millar
    This Newt speech is starting to make his moon base promises sound realistic by comparison #FLprimary

    jamestaranto James Taranto
    Newt: “I’m not running for entertainer in chief.” There goes his best argument.

  • Tim B

    Remember - only 5% of the Republican delegates have been awarded so far – this could easily run and run until Super Tuesday.

    It’s about perception and momentum. At some point if either Romney or Gingrich wins consistently, the money will start to dry up.

    Also, there are still some caucus states, and they are utterly unpredictable.

  • old_labour

    From Matthew Norman in the Independent

    So fellow fans of unabridged US political merriment will join me in rejoicing that Gingrich is as vengeful as he is megalomaniacal. The former Speaker is hell-bent on taking his losing battle all the way to the Republican convention in the autumn.

    Although the messiah of lunar colonisation evidently regards himself as Jesus (as well as Reagan, Thatcher, Lincoln, Uncle Tom Jefferson and all), the biblical character he has chosen to play for the rest of this campaign is Samson. If he cannot survive, he means to bring the temple roof down on his enemy as well as himself. Having already done the Democrats’ spadework by savaging Romney as the vulture capitalist who made his huge fortune by asset-stripping away countless jobs, he alleges that Romney stole kosher food from the mouths of elderly Jews.

    Meanwhile, Mittens is content to counterstrike, through surrogates such as Bob Dole, by highlighting the obscure fact that Gingrich is cuckoo bananas….

    http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/matthew-norman/matthew-norman-obama-has-nothing-to-fear-from-this-freakshow-6297583.html

  • Kristin

    Paul supporters take me back to Cleggasm.  Lots of young support, not enough to make much difference. 

  • Tim B

    I still maintain Ron Paul looks like Mister Magoo

  • old_labour

    I think you can only try that once.

  • Anonymous

    Fact: As is customary, Gingrich did not congratulate the winner of the Primary, even through gritted teeth.

    Gergen is not a liberal.

  • Tim B

    Well, he’s trying – his campaign HQ will be in Chicago.

  • old_labour

    Does Callista eat? She looks like what you would imagine the never-seen Maris on Frasier was like.

  • RodCrosby

    Newt MUST win the next WTA state, Arizona, on 28th Feb…

    Polls show him with a narrow lead…

  • Kristin

    Just think she could do with being less stiff, hair and all.  

  • Kristin

    Shame, I wanted someone to drop out after tonight. 

  • Anonymous

    ‘tbh, Mitt’s wife at least seems quite natural, does Callista speak ‘

    Kristin, a very good point. None of the prospective wives of the current crop of Republican candidates have made any real impact. And like their spouses, this matters. They all appear too like Stepford wives to be honest.

    Just as I have been very underwhelmend by Obama’s Presidency, and I was backing him to win. I knew that Obama would struggle to live up to the expectations after all the hype, but even with lowering the bar to a more achievable level, I have been disappointed. On the other hand, none of the Republican candidates come close to even touching Obama.

    On the other hand, I have become increasingly impressed by Michelle Obama as First Lady. And looking back, she really was an impressive asset to the Obama Presidential campaign last time. But with the sheer momentum of the Obama campaign in 2008, that was almost forgotten. But this time around, I suspect that Michelle  will play a far bigger role, and she will wow the US media and the voters.

  • Tim B

    He’s senior political analyst for CNN. He has served both Democrat and Republican administrations. 

    He’s hardly a right winger, and to be fair he’s hardly a leftie, unlike most of the CNN talking heads. Look at CNN’s viewing figures – their liberal bias is a major reason they are in desperate ratings trouble.I have to say I like to hear what he has to say. He’s interesting and reasonably unbiased. He used to be on the News Hour every Friday night, and I enjoyed listening to his views.But expecting CNN to back a Republican – not going to happen.

  • old_labour

    I wonder if some UK eurosceptics might prefer an Hollande win.

  • Kristin

    Yes, Michelle is definitely an asset. Natural, very bright and knows how to empathise.   Obama still seems to be fav to win, though there is some less than favourable data coming out more recently. PMI data and consumer confidence both down today and the debt figures keep going up. Let’s see how the jobless figures do over the next few months.  

    However, he does run a very good campaign.   

  • Anonymous

    Superb map on CNN, you can make your own prediction in the GOP race.
    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/calculator/

  • old_labour

    I think she looks like the “other woman” from central casting.

  • Kristin

    I’d say that’s a given.

  • Anonymous

    They’ve got Bush’s press secretary and my favourite Republican strategist on a panel of 4.  Gergen served Richard Nixon & was a right wing talking head on one of the tv networks for years.  It’s true that he’s not a tea partier, but then most people aren’t.

    CNN as a network is liberal, but the two individuals I quoted shouldn’t be dismissed just because they appear on CNN.

  • Tim B


    was a right wing talking head on one of the tv networks for years

    No, he’s never been a right winger. He’s fairly middle of the road.

    No, I would not dismiss him out of hand. But Gloria Borger, Wolf Blitzer, John King? Come on.

  • RodCrosby

    crap.

    the in-house PB spreadsheet does it far better, based on vote-share…

  • old_labour

    If Merkel tries to help Sarkozy’s re-election, Hollande will not owe her any favours if he wins, plus she has her own election is next year.

  • Anonymous

    ‘If you think raising taxes at this time will help America, then even
    Pres. Obama would disagree with you, Obama wants to retain the Bush tax
    cuts for most Americans.’

    I don’t for a minute suggest that Obama has the answers to the US economic woes. I am just pointing out that following the same simplistic economic policies that got us to this point isn’t the solution. Quite simple, the US economy is past such luxuries.

    And when any politician in American currently talks about ‘cutting taxes’ and ‘cutting public expenditure’.  I hope they realise the sheer amount of the population that are already struggling to survive without the benefits system we have here in the UK. If I was the President of the USA right now, I would struggle to sleep with the weight of those figures.

  • Kristin

    Her party spokesman has told the press she will. Apparently she’s bricking it that her fiskalpakt won’t pass lol

    I find it incredible that a leader of another country would actively go on the campaign trail. Hiding to nothing that one.

  • Tim B


    If you think raising taxes at this time will help America, then even Pres. Obama would disagree with you, Obama wants to retain the Bush tax cuts for most Americans.

    Well, no. It is only 8 months since Obama submitted a budget which increased the debt and the deficit, and was voted down 93-0 in the US Senate. The Democrats have not allowed a budget bill to come to the floor in the US Senate since they gained control in 2006.

    Obama is embracing the Bush tax cuts because he knows he has to get substantial Republican support to get any legislation through, and he feels that doing so might help. 

  • Anonymous

    Hollande win would be awful for France and I can’t see awful for France being good for Britain.

  • Kristin

    Who is the dark haired woman that was just on. Cathy something or other. Watched a program of hers the other day.

  • Anonymous

    ‘I wonder if some UK eurosceptics might prefer an Hollande win’

    old_Labour, and you would be right. :D

  • Kristin

    Guess it depends on how you look at it. He may well chase employers over the channel. But yes, he’s be more difficult to work with.  Fact is, he is well ahead in the polls.

  • Tim B

    I’ve lived here for over 30 years, and I have never seen anything like the amount of time that Obama is on TV. He is on – literally – every day.

    He is overexposed. What effect that may have is yet to be seen. But there is definitely a fatigue factor with his odd speaking style, his leaden delivery, and the fact that he just keeps saying the same things, over and over again. On the other hand, some say that repetition is good.

    Add to that that after the last debt limit battle, which was meant to last until after the election, he quietly wrote to the leaders of both houses of Congress a couple of weeks back, asking for another increase.

  • Anonymous

    Ari Fleischer, Alex Castellano vs Paul Begala & Donna Brazile are on the panel tonight looks balanced to me.  You’ve then got Borger who is slightly to the left and Gergen who is slightly to the right.Once again, I’m not saying CNN as a network isn’t more liberal than conservative, but you just lazily dismissed two people’s opinions simply because they work for CNN.  In fact what they said was spot on.  Would you describe the Gingrich speech as anything other than graceless?  If you did, I suspect you’d be in the minority.

  • RodCrosby

    He’s also going rather grey….

  • Kristin

    Mr B, he’s over exposed here.  Seems they show his every move, Sky is worst they cut away from something more pressing to show him flipping burgers. :S 

  • Anonymous

    It’s clear you are not a Republic though.  The American right does not fundamentally believe in a federal welfare state.  Individual states should look after their citizens as the people of the state see fit.

    Romney’s budget will still have to pass Congress, there’s no need to worry unduly, even if it was as bad as you say, which it isn’t.

  • Anonymous

    Well yes.  There’s nothing particularly radical about Romney’s budget proposals, and I’m suggesting the criticism from posters over here is misplaced.

  • Tim B

    Former Congressman JC Watts is on Fox right now. J.C. stands for one of two – either the Messiah or the Roman invader of Britain: which do you think?

  • old_labour

    ‘Fiskalpakt’ sounds and looks like a procedure that is performed with latex gloves.

  • Tim B

    OK – I have to ask: what is that shirt you have as an avatar? ;-)

  • Kristin

    Candy Crowley is the name I was looking for. i watched most of her SOTU program.  Wouldn’t minD seeing it again all the way though tbh.

  • Kristin

    Merkel looks like she’d be prepared for that.

  • Tim B


    The American right does not fundamentally believe in a federal welfare state.  Individual states should look after their citizens as the people of the state see fit.

    That’s the fundamental difference between the US and Europe.

    In the US you are responsible for you, not the government. Yes, there is social security, Medicare, Medicaid, but fundamentally why should the tax payer bail you out?

    That is the big struggle right now – Obama wants to make the US like a European welfare state, the Republicans don’t.

    It’s very simplistic, but reasonably accurate.

  • Anonymous

    She’s also very good.  I don’t know her politics, that’s how good she is.

  • Anonymous

    One of the big four Premier League clubs…

  • Tim B

    That doesn’t help – I have no idea who the ‘big four’ are, except that I assume Man U is one of them.

  • Tim B

    Yes, she’s good. I wish she had more onscreen time on CNN.

  • http://edmundintokyo.wordpress.com/ Edmund in Tokyo

    Add to that that after the last debt limit battle, which was meant to last until after the election, he quietly wrote to the leaders of both houses of Congress a couple of weeks back, asking for another increase.

    Maybe I’m missing something here, but my understanding was that the whole point of the deal was that the Administration would ask Congress to increase the debt ceiling in several steps. Having agreed to a process where Obama would definitely be able to get his increase, the Republicans wanted to have several chances to vote against it.

  • Kristin

    Her program is every Sunday I think.

    http://sotu.blogs.cnn.com/ clips here

  • old_labour

    The Telegraph claims there is an audio recording of Bosmarck taken in 1889 at the link. He speaks English in the excerpt

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/9052332/Listen-to-Thomas-Edisons-recording-of-Otto-von-Bismarck-in-1889.html

  • Kristin

    crowleyCNN Candy Crowley 
    Paul &Santorum called Mitt 2 congratulate. Gingrich did not. ( says romney source) I think newt might be upset.hehe

  • Kristin

    Did you see the Air Force one tapes I posted yesterday? Taken the day Kennedy was assassinated. fascinating.  I listened to the whole 2 hours.

  • http://edmundintokyo.wordpress.com/ Edmund in Tokyo

    Gingrich down to between 5% and 5.5% on Intrade.

    Looking at Rod’s spreadsheet his chances look a bit better than that, especially if we think Ron Paul’s delegates would pick him over Romney if neither hit 50%.

    He just has to hold on until the Red States start voting…

  • old_labour

    Listening to it in the background as trouble sleeping due to heavy cold. It almost feels like listening in as it happened.

  • moses

    Quite

    In fact two things have become apparent now that would not normally have happened in the past.  An opposition leader attacking his own country while at a foreign conference (Davos) and leaders of other countries not becoming involved in other countries domestic elections. 

    Of course both can and probably did happen either discreetly or off the record but the political etiquette was accepted. Not any more it appears.

    Merkels open campaigning for Sarkozy is a worrying development in many ways if not completely understandable as the alternative for Merkel must fill her with horror and a few sleepless nights.

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