politicalbetting.com

Kristin

(Reuters) – White House hopeful Mitt Romney widened his lead over rival Newt Gingrich to 11 percentage points in Florida, according to Reuters/Ipsos online poll results on Saturday, up from 8 points a day earlier, as he cemented his front-runner status in the Republican nomination race.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/28/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSTRE80R0QD20120128

Kristin

anthonyjwells Anthony Wells
New post: YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 39%, LAB 40%, LDEM 8%bit.ly/yg4dca

tim

Tory lead down 6% since last Saturday’s hysteria?

I like the nights with the Tories in the lead, a way of harnessing the energy fro the Tweet Tsunami needs to be found.

http://twitter.com/mrnonnymouse NonnyMouse

Archbishop of York, Dr John Sentamu doesn’t like gay marriage and says that marriage should be defined by ‘tradition and history’ and not the state. I did a little research about the history of marriage:

- The responsibility for registering marriages was actually moved from the church to the state in the Protestant Reformation – i.e. when the Church of England was created.

- In fact, from the 5th to the 14th centuries, the Roman Catholic Church conducted special ceremonies to bless same-sex unions of marriage.

So if we are to respect ‘tradition and history’ then the Archbishop should leave marriage to the government and he should be supporting gay marriages.

More here: http://bit.ly/A7AK0S

Anybody seen any recent polling on the subject?

http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

The YouGov poll ratings seem to have been stuck on these numbers for ages.

http://www.facebook.com/people/Andrea-Parma/578831001 Andrea Parma

The “LD Yorkshire Euro seat” low rated saga.

Recap of previous episodes:
Diana
Wallis MEP is stepping down mid-term. Her husband (who is also her
assistant IIRC) was second on the Yorkshire LD Euro list last time. Some
complained that she can stand down when she prefers knowing her husband
will take over.

Episode 5:
The husband said he is not
available to take over. So the party has asked someone called Rebecca
Taylor (third in LD 2009 list) asking if she wants the job. She’s
honoured and will let know her decision in the coming days

Coming next on Episode 6: Rebecca’s decision

There’ll be soon a cross over with Roger Helmer’s resignation

Philiph

Who is most pleased at this point in the cycle?

Tory at -1 or
Labour at +1

Not that I would expect YouGov figures to translate into vote shares at an election.

http://twitter.com/mrnonnymouse NonnyMouse

http://voteukoutofeu.co.uk/ have a (probably push) poll with YouGov.

They state some headline conclusions but don’t give any details or even the actual questions.

I can’t find the full data but presumably it will be on YouGov at some point.

tim

Polling the over 18s on priests?
Shouldn’t YouGov have a panel of Matthew 8, Luke 10 and Mark 12

http://twitter.com/mrnonnymouse NonnyMouse

The government figures always go up 3-5% as the election approaches. The Tories got a nice bounce before the local elections (and AV referendum) last year as they start campaigning instead of acting like a government. If I was Osborne I would be very happy with -1 at this point in the electoral cycle.

The real question is how much the LibDems can recover. I’m starting to think that they won’t because they are acting as an opposition within the government. The Tories will get all the credit and Labour will get all of the not-Tory vote.

The other one to watch is SNP. If the SNP pick up support (especially if helped by a referendum, no matter what the result) then they could take seats from Labour.

Traditional electoral maths won’t apply in 2015. That will make betting trickier.

Anonymous

“The real question is how much the LibDems can recover. I’m starting to
think that they won’t because they are acting as an opposition within
the government. The Tories will get all the credit and Labour will get
all of the not-Tory vote.”

I agree. It’s a pretty crappy scenario for them either way, and after trying to not rock the boat and get credit for that, without seeming success, the differentiation idea is tried, but though a little more successful, I cannot see it leading to a recovery to near their 2010 figreus either.

tim

“This will probably end the row which has caused problems for both government and opposition.”

Outside of PB I suspect that the problem is “The Governments”, hence the Lib Dems desire to differentiate themselves from the Government.

http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1720673898 Alan Baylis

You both might be right but I suspect a differentiation strategy might be the best for the LibDems as things start to get tough. Especially one that favours the lower paid rather that bankers as the Conservatives appear to support.

Anonymous

The questions might be leading, but that isn’t “push polling”.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll

Anonymous

‘The big news today, of course, has been that the chairman of RBS, Sir
Philip Hampton has given up a £1.4m shares bonus due next month.’

Well done that man! Bottom line, if the bosses of RBS can turn the bank around they can name their price in the work place. And lets face it, the whole sector needs some positive PR asap.

tim

Hence Iron Daves claim that he didnt interfere, but he did interfere to halve the bonus, but not the whole bonus

http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

Quiet night tonight in the cafe it seems. Maybe that means exciting things will happen in the next week or so.

tim

Unfortunately that is a product of the site relying on thick Tories to provide it’s ballast, when they can’t handle a story or a poll they disappear, and as yet there aren’t enough intelligent Tories to replace them

Chris A

Why on earth will it end the row? Just goes to show up even more that Hester has his nose in the trough. I mean it must be hard existing on just £1.2m per year, I don’t know how he manages it.

tim

The Sunday Times covering bankers bonuses and arrests at NI.

http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/44932/the_times_sunday_29th_january_2012.html

Chris A

Yes the iditiotic Sentamu probably thinks the australopithecines went to the cave of the local clergyprimate when they wanted to get hitched.

Perhaps he would better off thinking that it used to be “tradition” that people like him couldn’t be bishops.

Anonymous

Why has it been so quiet, problems with Disques? Popped back in and surprised at lack of comments?

Neil

Hmm, a pollster in Ireland finds a majority *in favour* of the proposed EU treaty. However with ‘yes’ leading by 40% to 36% I think we can still be confident that ‘no’ would win because dont knows historically break to ‘no’. Wasnt the text meant to be agreed this month?

tim

It’s not a moderating issue that all of the people arrested today worked for the Sun whilst Rebekah Brooks was editor, Mr Camerons dinner guest, as was Andy Coulson, as was James Murdoch.

tim

I think we’re expected to accept that Bishops who preached against interracial marriage should command respect

tim

If the daily poll that the PB Tories don’t believe in shows a Tory lead, it’s busy, capiche?

Sunil Prasannan

Moreover, the Lord God was not married to the mother of His only begotten son…

antifrank

It seems as though there are fewer healthy pandas in Scotland than Conservative MPs:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-16776561

Anonymous

Syria: There is now foreign journalists reporting sections of Damascus suburbs that are in effect under Free Syrian Army control.

MA greater sign though of the level this conflict has reached can be seen from the town of Rankous where much of its population has fled and a comparative handful remain. Whats left are FSA forces and the rest of place surrounded by mechanised forces of Assad’s army who have been progressively shelling the place.

How Assad is quite going to put this thing down I’m not sure. Its not the numbers of the Free Syrian Army itself, its the extent of the protests and spread of them and armed actions.

Neil

Noone is expecting you to respect anyone, tim. Though trying to associate John Sentamu with racial bigotry to try to undermine his views on marriage is, I dunno, novel?

tim

The spokeswoman said: “Tian Tian, our female giant panda, has been under the weather this morning.

As the economy goes, so goes the panda, whether it was to warm or too cold, who knows?

Chris A

His views on marriage are plain wrong. Just that. Just like the BNP’s views on black people are wrong. It surprises me that a supposedly intelligent man like Sentamu cannot see it.

Anonymous

The reality is, all Tories are ecstatic about the current state in the polls. Despite Tim’s claims of a Tory herd last week, the mood was of an outlier but a good piece of fun at the expense of Ed miliband. Yougov is up and down on a regular basis. The change is that the government are sitting at 39/40 on a consistent basis.

tim

The Church has used biblical cover to persecute gay people and black people, I don’t think Sentamus skin colour is relevant.

Anonymous

Slick comparison there between racists and people who don’t like homosexuals.

Anonymous

The Hester story is completely nuts and just goes to show how most of the population and especially the media know sod all about business.

RBS was an over leveraged basket case when we all bought it. It needed somebody bloody good to give us taxpayers any chance of getting our money back. Hester was persuaded to do it for a much lower base salary that anyone at his level would expect, but with a wacking big upside share wise if he got us most of our money back.

So he starts to fix it. His contracted terms are met or nearly met. if we actually get our money back on RBS and Hester walks out with £100m who cares?

if he walks away after all the media crap, why would anybody any good want to replace him? It’s probably the toughest job in commercial banking and you know that every penny you earn will be sneered at by the thick stupid herd.

Anonymous

Some of the most bigoted nasty racist people I have ever met have been black, one was a black minister (not cofe of course).

Neil

“It surprises me that a supposedly intelligent man like Sentamu cannot see it.”

You cant seriously be surprised that a bishop holds the church’s view on marriage?

Chris A

Well they’re one and the same to me.

Anonymous

Looks like the Greeks are not going to bend over as required:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16777322

Anonymous

You make the same point each time, and it is largely untrue.

Chris A

But it’s not. It’s a section of the church’s views on marriage.

tim

If the cap fits, and in your case it does.

Neil

Sentamu isnt trying to persecute anybody. Trying to undermine his views by associating him with persecution is just silly, tim.

Anonymous

If the cap doesn’t fit, you just make it up, as usual. You have been caught out do many times now it becomes tedious.

http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

David Lammy is apparently calling for the return of Victorian values in terms of disciplining children according to the Mail:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2093223/Labour-MP-Smacking-ban-led-riots-parents-fear-children-taken-away-discipline-them.html

Anonymous

Well you are a moronic idiot.

tim

His contracted terms are met or nearly met.

really?

George Osbourne ”for the first time the pay of the chief executives of each bank, as well as the relevant business area leaders, will be linked to their performance …

“To help ensure today’s agreement is honoured, for the first time the pay of the Chief Executives of each bank, as well as the relevant business area leaders, will be linked to performance against the SME lending targets.

Neil

“Some of the most bigoted nasty racist people I have ever met have been black”

Of course black people can be racist, notme3. I wasnt making a point about black people. I was making a point about John Sentamu.

tim

John Sentamu is primarily a Bishop, why should his skin colour prevent him from spouting biblical bigotry?

http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

I’m not aware of any problems with Disqus.

Anonymous

I always find it fascinating when people present the settled status quo on an issue as somehow bigoted, wrong and outdated. If you want to change something, surely it is up to you to present the case for doing so.

tim

That one is up there with the richard dodd school of mountainous insults.

You never really got over Breivik not being a Muslamic did you?

Anonymous

‘the church’ which church? All churches?

tim

I’ll pay the donate button a quid for each church you find that has treated gay people equally.
You pay a quid for those that haven’t, deal?

Neil

“why should his skin colour prevent him from spouting biblical bigotry?”

I’m struggling to understand why on earth you think anyone would hold the view that it does. All I said was that trying to associate John Sentamu with racial bigotry to undermine his views on marriage is not a clever way of arguing your position.

http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1720673898 Alan Baylis

What planet are you on mate? All bankers are overpaid for what good they deliver and any competent manager could turn that company around without the need for bonuses that reward a reduction in share price and therefore company value. I’d give him zilch for current performance and he can have some ‘long term incentives’ if he can get the share price way above when he took over otherwise why is he worth anything more than you or I in that post?

Anonymous

Just keep faking it up.

Chris A

Nothing is ever settled. My secretary at work is mixed race. Her parents would not have been allowed to get married in many parts of the US in the last century. Was that a settled status quo? Was it right? It had certainly been in existence for centuries. And yes there are many reason why marriage is good for society.

It’s up to you to reason why the world will come to an end – as you obviously think it will – if you allow some as innocuous as letting gay people marry each other.

tim

Sentamus view of gay people is no different from the Dutch reform church of black people,why should the fact that he is black remove him from that linkage?

Neil

” letting gay people marry each other”

And in the rewal world gay people can marry each other in the UK. Labour legislated for that.

http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

When I was 10 years old I wanted to be a banker because I had the impression you could get filthy rich by sitting in front of a computer and shouting into a phone all day.

tim

Not they can’t and no they didnt.

Chris A

Did it? No, Labour took the coward’s way and legislated for an inferior, second class status of civil partnerships for gay people.

Neil

“why should the fact that he is black remove him from that linkage”

I’ll go slowly for you, tim. Because you have probably had a bit of wine or something. You dont advance your argument by trying to tar John Sentamu by association with racial bigotry …. because he’s not a racist bigot. Nothing to do with his skin colour, tim.

Chris A

Did it? No, Labour took the coward’s way and legislated for an inferior, second class status of civil partnerships for gay people.

Neil

” legislated for an inferior, second class status of civil partnerships for gay people.”

Wow, I wouldnt invite you to my civil partnership if you really think it’s inferior in status.

Chris A

tim is not saying that he is a racist bigot. However, he quite clearly does have the same mindset as a racist bigot. He discriminates against certain people because of an innate feature of them.

Neil

“tim is not saying that he is a racist bigot”

I never said he did.

I just pointed out that tim was trying to undermine his views on marriage by associating him with racial bigotry.

A form of playing the man not the ball that we are, unfortunately, all to used to from tim on this site.

And something that doesnt advance tim’s argument one jot. Because it’s plainly ridiculous.

tim

I’m not claiming he’s a racial bigot, I’m saying he is using the same biblical logic that racial bigots used to justify his discrimination against gay people.

tim

I was playing the Bishop, not the man.

http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1720673898 Alan Baylis

When I was 10 years old I’d have agree with you but now I appreciate what a bunch of muppets they are.

Anonymous

Fair point, he seems a decent guy, and is chancellor of a university I have some involvement with.

Chris A

I don’t think it is. I know it is both in law and in pension rights.

Anonymous

‘innate’
Getting married to other men is ‘innate’? Is this the ‘gay marriage gene’?

Neil

” I know it is both in law and in pension rights.”

Can you explain to me how a civil partner’s pension rights are different under the law to those of a husband?

Chilon

Labour made great strides in equality. But we need to continue. Hopefully, this government will bring in Gay marraige and heterosexual civil partnerships.

I will raise a glass to the government if they do.

Anonymous

Well it is very clear that civil partnership is inferior. If it wasn’t it would just be called marriage.

tim

This is going to be fun.

you think marriage between men and women is “innate”

Clue.

fucking may be innate, stag parties probably aren’t.

Neil

“Well it is very clear that civil partnership is inferior. If it wasn’t it would just be called marriage.”

Interesting. Can you explain your logic? To me different names suggest .. difference. Not inferiority / superiority. Why does the name marriage indicate that it is superior to something called civil partnership?

tim

I believe Dave on this, primarily because Osborne and Boris were way ahead of him.

I also believed Dave on the NHS when he used his dead son’s memory and I got stung on that one, but on this it seems he’s genuine and is deserving of support.

Anonymous

Foolish boy. I have favoured allowing gays to marry for sometime.Something that has lasted for a long period of time is settled. Of course it doesn’t mean its right, but it does mean yu have to give a good reason.

Chilon

Why can’t I as a heterosexual man have a civil partnership? I want no association with the bigoted concept of marriage.

Anonymous

I was referring to treatment of black people. I don’t know what biblical Cover there is for your claims.

Neil

“Why can’t I as a heterosexual man have a civil partnership.”

You can, chilon. You can have a civil partnership with any man you like subject to the exceptions in the legislation.

Chris A

http://www.alternativefamilylaw.co.uk/en/gay-lesbian/civil-partnership.htm
you might learn something

tim

sexist

Anonymous

I wouldn’t bet on that. Michael Moore discovered that he has chicken pox – after he had met with Mundell.

Anonymous

Which is precisely the opposite point I was making. There is nothing ‘innate’ about it, to equate it to a concept of race is complete poppycock.

Neil

You’re not prepared to explain, Chris? I’m unsurprised. Your link doesnt show how the law treats the pension rights of civil partners differently from husbands. As far as I am aware, it doesnt.

old_labour

Cameron rules out more fiscal powers for Scotland

SCOTS have been warned a substantial increase in financial powers for Holyrood is not an option if Scotland wants to remain within the United Kingdom.

In a blunt message to Scottish politicians and voters, sources close to Prime Minister David Cameron say an increase in powers – such as devo-max – is “inconsistent” with staying in the UK and that they must back independence if they want full financial separation from Westminster.

The sources said a unified tax and benefits system across the UK, was at the “heart” of a single country, and could not be devolved to Scotland.
The warning – which appears to rule out both devo-max and other forms of fiscal autonomy – represents a high-stakes gamble for Cameron, with polls suggesting voters in Scotland support an option to give Holyrood more powers….

http://www.scotsman.com/scotland-on-sunday/politics/no_further_tax_powers_for_scotland_says_david_cameron_1_2084365

Neil

“sexist ”

Chilon’s posting on a policital website after midnight on a Saturday … his chances of finding a woman are extremely low anyway.

tim

I don’t think it’s more or less “innate” for a black woman and a white man to wish to marry than it is for a black man and a white man to wish to marry.

Chilon

LOL!

I want to commit to my partner but don’t want a quasi religious ceremony with sexist concepts of ownership floating around.

This is a pointless debate. I believe this government will deal with both. And if not the next one will.

tim

You could find a man at this time of night, call a cab.

Neil

I love your naivety, tim. After midnight on a Saturday the internet *is* the place to find a man

Chilon

Ha Neil. Thank you very much but I have a girlfriend of over 10 years now. And back in my bachelor days I had no trouble attracting the opposite sex either.

Nice of you to avoid playing the ball though

Anonymous

I think you are being obtuse. Comparing a social cultural construct such as marriage with something that is biological and determined by ones genes, such as race is what is bonkers.

http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

This is an interesting blog – it’s an American woman who reviews books. She gets through a hell of a lot of books each year, something like 350:

http://www.skrishnasbooks.com/

tim

Hi blue eyes.

The Submarine sunk our defence.

In an interview with The Sunday Telegraph, the former head of the army, General Sir Michael Jackson, says defence cuts have made it “impossible” to win the islands back after a successful invasion, in the way the British task force did in 1982.
“What if an Argentinian force was able to secure the Mount Pleasant airfield? Then our ability to recover the islands now would be just about impossible,” says General Jackson, who was Chief of the General Staff until five years ago and led the army into Iraq.
“We are not in a position to take air power by sea since the demise of the Harrier force.”
Britain no longer has an aircraft carrier and the Harrier fleet which performed with such distinction during the Falklands War has been sold to the US Marine Corps.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9046826/Britain-could-not-reclaim-the-Falklands-if-Argentina-invades-warns-General-Sir-Michael-Jackson.html

PB NightHawks on the day on the day of RBS bonuses

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH