Is Salmond’s referendum question biased & unfair?

January 27th, 2012

Does the boss of ICM have a point?

Alex Salmond announced on Wednesday that his “straightforward” question for the Scottish referendum was: “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?

This has now been scrutinized by academic and polling experts who are saying that it is leading and suggest that it is designed to get a particular outcome.

According to the Telegraph the boss of ICM, Martin Boon, said the question was simple but added that his company would “refuse” to ask it as it stands.

“This is cheeky really – it suggests that ‘we all agree, don’t you?’ In short, if this were asked in the context of an opinion poll, I would expect to receive some condemnation for it being deemed as imbalanced, loaded and unfair”

It’s suggested Salmond’s wording had obviously been the subject of extensive SNP polling to register the most favourable possible result.

Also quoted is Prof John Curtice, who said: “It would have been fairer to ask ‘should Scotland become independent’ rather than ‘do you agree’. In everyday conversation people are inclined to say they agree than don’t agree.”

This one will run.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Plato

IIRC Mormons believe that the afterlife is where all your family comes together – so they have to convert dead family members so they can be reunited.

As Mr Crosby notes – that’s why they’re the world’s genealogy experts.
Kristin

And here’s the man himself defending Hester’s £10m bonus in shares July 2008
http://news.sky.com/home/video/15332815
Anonymous

Has he ever scored highly on those things? Not that there isn’t a chance a decline will hurt him, particular when it comes to fairness, but surely it’s like calling him posh – everyone knows it and surely has a mostly settled opinion on it by now. He is known to be an out of touch toff, and either people still think he is able to handle the economy (those Osbourne/Cameron vs Balls/Miliband figures people love much) or they were never able to let it go in the first place

Maybe this could resonate enough to bring his rating on those values to a point where it begins to really bite again, but I’m not convinced yet.
Kristin

sorry for typo that was of course July 2009,
Anonymous

Listening to that it seems to me Darling knew all about it and was talking about Hester getting a bog windfall in 2013 (whivch this bonus looks like it will do ) back in 2008.
Anonymous

Sky news saying that the entire deal was down to Brown & Darling.
Ishmael_X

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16752358

“But the Chancellor, George Osborne, said the previous Labour government
was responsible as it had forged the contract that included a bonus
clause.”

Not rebutted afaik.

Ball in your court, tim.

And if you are saying the *amount* of the bonus was not contractual, well duh. What do you think a bonus is?
tim

It said he was entitled to be considered for a bonus, no more than that.

Now why is he getting one?
Ishmael_X

tim is a blairite who hates phoney public school boys with a weakness for sucking up to the very rich. It can’t be easy for him.
Anonymous

You do know that any delay in replying is down to Tim waiting for his answers to be emailed over from Labour HQ right? They probably have a contract (oops, not worth the paper it’s written on), with a Chinese robot factory churning out a ‘Tim mark 2′ army as we speak.
Anonymous

ask the remuneration committee. You don’t really understand how this works do you?
Kristin

That’s share options for you. It was defensible then, but indefensible now. A lot of opportunistic rhetoric going around then, just as now as it is now.

I’m no big fan of Hester as he was at one time my boss and I saw a lot of redundancies happen during his tenure. However, he is good at his job.
Anonymous

See Darling’s interview at 597. It sounds to me like the bonuses were well known and agreed by your Government back then. Darling even talks about Hester being rewarded in 2013. When do these shares become valid?

Same old Labour ~ lies, hypocrisy and self serving malevolence.
Anonymous

Indeed, I find it perverse that such high bonuses are doing the rounds but this is a hangover from the noughties and the rancid hypocrisy of Labour is beyond despicable….
tim

They weren’t as Cameron,Osborne and Fallon have been saying today.

But here’s the posturing chancellor a fortnight ago.

”

Published on Thursday 12 January 2012 00:09

Chancellor George Osborne issued a sharp warning yesterday to the banks against making big bonus payouts.

On the eve of the City bonus season, Mr Osborne said industry had not had “a particularly successful year” which should be reflected in the level of the awards.

Giving evidence to the Commons Treasury Select Committee, he said he would be taking a “keen interest” in the bonuses paid by the part state-owned Royal Bank of Scotland.

“I am clear that – given the fact that this has not been a particularly successful year for banking – you would expect to see bonuses lower this year,” he told the committee.

Mr Osborne said he expected the banks to follow the advice given by the Bank of England to use any surplus cash to build up their capital reserves rather than distribute it in bonus payments.

“That advice should be heeded,” he said. “The Financial Services Authority is currently going bank by bank to see whether they are compliant with that warning.”

He made clear that he would be following the bonus awards made by RBS particularly closely He said the taxpayer was still sitting on large losses as a result of the 2008 bail-out of the bank, adding “I would certainly expect to have many conversations with the RBS management about the bonuses which they may or may not wish to pay. We are many tens of billions of pounds underwater on our investment.”
Anonymous

By most accounts, Mr Hester is doing well. Not perfectly – that’s why he wasn’t given the maximum possible bonus for which he was eligible. But he’s done pretty well nonetheless. All RBS assets are now profitable – with the exception of Ulster Bank – and he has successfully reduced the balance sheet by hundreds of billions.

The shares he’s been given can’t be cashed in until 2014, so the actual value of his bonus is attached to the performance of the bank over the medium term. He may end up cashing in his shares for considerably more than today’s market value or for considerably less – that will depend on RBS’s future performance.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2092802/Stephen-Hesters-bonus-A-defence-RBS-chief.html#ixzz1kgqJd5Hs

If you’re making a wider point that the bank is effectively in the public sector, are you advocating lower salaries for those that work in the public sector? Didn’t the boss of Barclays get more than £6million in bonuses in 2010?This whole affair is as likely to impact on a GE as Andy Coulson or which which political groups the tories choose to sit with in the European Parliament.
tim

Didn’t Barclays pay out more while their share price declined in bonuses than it did in dividends?

On that measure Adam Werritty was due a big bonus
Ishmael_X

I imagine because he was considered as per the contract using the yardstick applied by the banking industry generally. But that’s between him and the remuneration committee and no one else. if you think cameron has been an arsehat for trying to suggest he has influenced things i don’t disagree but that isn’t the point. This is like goodwin’s pension but ought to be 98% less toxic because goodwin was in disgrace, it was negotiated by a minister and no one’s hands had been tied by a previous government. and goodwin’s pension wasn’t that toxic.

it may of course get more toxic because it plays in to other things but it doesn’t inherently deserve to. More likely to enable rEd to make a major prat of himself again after the delicious treat of Terrysgate.
RodCrosby

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temple_%28LDS_Church%29#Temple_ordinances

The Jews and Catholics have objected, and refuse to allow the LDS access to their parish records…

so you won’t find them in the world’s greatest genalogical database…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Genealogical_Index

for English non-Catholics/Jews with reasonably uncommon names it should be possible, using the IGI, to trace your ancestry back to around 1580 – possibly in an afternoon!
Plato

AQ David Blunkett, The Fink, Sunny Katwala, Anne Soubry
Anonymous

There are always valid criticisms of any government. Thats why we have governments, there is no way any nof us can blame ourselves is there/

No doubt the media, labour and politicians in election year will moan, but the reality is its no big deal compared to the billions we are in hock for (get that – ‘compared’ to the billions?).
If Heston is being rewarded for failure that would be different, if his bonus is a genuine one then its good news for us.

I despise the bankers that got us in this mess – there is no suggestion that Heston was one of them. From a political point of view the govt have made efforts to keep the bonus to a minimum, sensible enough. Politically I am sure they would like there to be no bonus at all. It was 2 million last year.

The argument that no one seems to be making is that as shareholders no one seems to be explaining what is happening to the bank we own, how it is progressing and what its prospects are.
We are of course stuck with it, ‘ordinary’ shareholder have an option to sell (even if it is at a loss).

In the true spirit of camaraderie that we all share with the lefty crowd, I can only question why Labour let Goodwin off with his pension pot – indeed with his liberty.
Anonymous

So the million quid worth of shares (with the relevant targets met), would be better off on the banks balance sheet or? How does that work then? One million quid maybe….to keep a bloke happy who is apparently doing a decent job in trying to get back 40 billion. 40 BILLION. He walks and that job probably gets harder.

So right, the principle is more important than the reality? Well now it is since Labour are no longer in power…..thank God.

This is just Labour bollox x infinity. As usual.
Kristin

The fact is, when the last Lab gov had the banks by the short and curlies they let go. It’s not just bonuses, we’ve also had the farce of lending to SME’s etc.

Basically they fecked up and, as per, want to rewrite history.
Ishmael_X

Yeah well Barclays is independent isn’t it?

I am very happy to deride those who defend the banks on “free market” grounds and have apparently never encountered the concepts of cartel and kleptocracy, but Barclays torpedoes your immediate point.
Anonymous

RBS is acting with admirable restraint then, at least by comparison? Barclays is the world’s 5th largest bank…on the face of it they seem rather better managed in recent years than the UK.
Anonymous

Tim, when your in a hole stop digging.
Richard Tyndall

A fatuous argument from you. Dyson and Sugar were entrepreneurs and a million miles from most of the men running big companies. Even Richard N didn’t try to defend most of the idiots sitting in the boardrooms of the big listed companies.
Anonymous

The organiser is a lefty inee? Its all set to the music of ‘Underworld’; I am sure someone will enlighten us about them.

Apparently, apart from the performing nurses, its going to be a Shakespearean ‘Tempest’ theme, which promises a good start. Brave new world …

PS
It may be that its just the performers will be recruited from the NHS (and schools etc) – in the manner of the Halifax adds - not actually celebrating the NHS. I rather like the idea of a giant bell, I hope its made here.
Plato

Newt’s chutzpah jumps the honesty shark – Mitt tells big fibs and can’t be trusted…

http://youtu.be/pSkLw6UvpaM
Anonymous

Amstrad went bust eventually. Sugar is a property developer.
tim

You appear not to have read the Sun report you linked to.
Osborne criticised the review of bonuses put in plavpce by the last Govt as being too slow to impact on the 2009 payments.
But it’s reported now hasn’t it.

And your spinning for the Tories ( whether Fallons story, Osbornes, or Camerons is not clear) ignores the factmthat Boris is strongly,against and the Tory member of the Treasury Select committee says a bonus shouldn’t have been paid as the share price fell and the bank failed to meet it’s SME lending targets.

I don’t know whether you bet, but I’m happy to put up some money saying this bonus was discretionary, not contractual.
The Screaming Eagles

Amstrad went bust?

I’m fairly certain they were bought out by BSkyB.
The Screaming Eagles

Looks like Cameron is about to upset the Euro-sceptics.

David Cameron in U-turn over fiscal policing of eurozone

Government signals it will not challenge fiscal enforcement role for European commission and European court of justice

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/jan/27/david-cameron-eu-institutions-eurozone
Anonymous

So Tim’s hero Darling thought an £10 million bonus in 2008 was just fine.

Tim’s now officially taken over from Roger as the PB clown.
Anonymous

How do you know most people who sit in boardrooms are idiots? What measure are you using, or is it just a prejudice?
Kristin

And you’re spinning for ? lol My point actually is there has been rhetoric on both sides but, when it comes to the contracts, only one side is to blame. Darling defended the bonus in 2009 end of.

Maybe Ed will get a boost in the polls for a while, Lord knows he needs it.
ps – Yes I do bet occasionally but not with people on blogs, no offence etc.
Anonymous

Following the crash the banks were told to recapitalise, which does make it more difficult to lend.

Even the Guardian points out
‘The UK banks argue they have been required to bolster their capital
and liquidity faster than eurozone rivals and taken more realistic
mark-downs on their holdings of sovereign bonds.RBS, for instance, has taken a 50% hit on its Greek holdings compared with 21% of many eurozone banks’

So one thing that Heston has done is to be realistic and that in the long term may be a good thing.
Anonymous

Time to revert to Coulson & the NHS,your making a complete prat of yourself.

When your in a hole stop digging.
Kristin

Germany is pushing for Greece to relinquish control over its budget policy to European institutions as part of discussions over a second rescue package, a European source told Reuters on Friday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/27/us-eurozone-greece-germany-idUSTRE80Q1ZF20120127?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=56943

Democracy, what democracy?
tim

So you think the bonus is contractual?
tim

Oh dear, we’ve got another ringer.
Ishmael_X

“I don’t know whether you bet, but I’m happy to put up some money saying this bonus was discretionary, not contractual.”

False dichotomy, they don’t exclude each other.

There was no contractual right to a sum specified (e.g. £1 m) or ascertainable (e.g. rise in share price times number of angels on pinhead). There was a contractual right to be considered for a bonus and a contractual duty for the committee to consider the bonus properly, and once it had made an award a contractual right to the bonus. So he had a contractual claim if the discretion was not exercised or was exercised improperly (e.g. influenced by third parties like the government) and a contractual claim (or it might be a debt claim) if it was awarded and not paid. In addition he would have a claim in the tort of interference with a contract against anyone trying to exert improper influence on the committee.

Clear now? That is just how (some) bonuses work.
Ishmael_X

I rather like the idea of a giant bell, I hope its made here.

Yup, at the Whitechapel Bell Foundry selon world at one. I think it’s about the only one in the world anyway.
Anonymous

Syria: Anything between 70 and 100 deaths today., not including any of Assad’s forces.

Event in a civil conflict thats a fair number and its happening day after day with factory line regularity. The focus of both fighting is again in the western line cutting off the coast but its stretching further south as well through northern Damascus suburb.

Its also no co-incidence that the focus of street protests is along that south-north line.
Kristin

Was in the middle of a reply. But @Ishamel_X:disqus has explained it already. See post below yours.
tim

I saw it, but as Fallon has spent the day saying the Govt intervened,it’s not really valid is it?
malcolmG

Ha Ha Ha , what a load of sour grapes
Ishmael_X

Well that’s politics innit? All governments at all times are trying to put out messages that a. they are 100% in control of the situation but b. 0% of anything is their fault. This gives rise to dissonances, but doesn’t alter the underlying law. Fallon can safely say in general terms to the committee “come on chaps and play the game” but they don’t have to/are not permitted to pay him much attention.
Anonymous

Yes – I knew it had been bought out – you must allow me my little bit of hyperbole.
But the stereo business went bump the WP business went bump the computer business went bump the telephone business went bump the games business went bump and the TV box business was bought out.
It was worth 1.2 billion once and it was bought out at a premium for 125 million. I have to say some commentators called it a ‘retirement present’ from SKY.

To be honest this is not a real criticism of siralan, as was, he moved around with the times, ‘duckinandivinrodney, y’know worramean?’; but his businesses were eventually out-performed by his competitors. But he put his profits wisely into property.
malcolmG

Yes we would really prefer a rigged unionist bollocks question, get a life
Anonymous

test
tim

dissonances

Asked if he would act to stop the bosses of state-owned banks receiving £1million bonuses, Mr Cameron replied: ‘The short answer is yes.’
Anonymous

another test
Devo Max

Right. A rigged separatist bollocks question is so much better.
Moniker of Monza

Salmond will lose his rigged referendum. A squalid waste of time and money.
tim

Meanwhile, here’s a more likely story of what happened.

The question of Mr Hester’s bonus placed Mr Cameron and his chancellor in a near-impossible position, after it became clear that the bank’s chief executive and its board might walk out if the government tried to block the payment.

FT.

Nothing contractual,the posh lads caved in.

Now PB Tories, deflect your anger – chaaaarge!!!

To the irritation of senior Conservatives, the Lib Dems have distanced themselves from the issue. Vince Cable, business secretary, said Mr Hester’s bonus was an issue for the prime minister and chancellor and was “above his pay grade”.
Ishmael_X

Precisely. As i said below

” if you think cameron has been an arsehat for trying to suggest he has influenced things i don’t disagree”
Ishmael_X

You’re cheerful. Too much electric soup at Mcgonagall Night?
Anonymous

I have had growing worries about the intellectual capacity of the “Scottish” Tory party for some time-thankfully though I have no need to worry about what they might do in power in Holyrood.
Anonymous

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2089296/David-Cameron-vows-stop-1-5m-bonus-RBS-boss-Stephen-Hester.html

‘Cameron vow: I’ll block £1.5m bonus to RBS boss Hester’
‘Mr Hester, 51, is said to be in line to enjoy a £1.5million windfall …Asked
if he would act to stop the bosses of state-owned banks receiving
£1million bonuses, Mr Cameron replied: ‘The short answer is yes.’ The
Prime Minister announced that the Government would cap cash bonuses in the two state-owned banks – RBS and Lloyds TSB – at £2,000 for all
employees and would use its clout as major shareholder to limit the
amount in shares paid to senior executives’

This is precisely what the govt have done.

‘the Prime Minister is ‘determined to act’ and would assure that there was no repeat of the ‘absurd’ bonus paid to Mr Hester last year, which topped £2million.

‘DAVID Cameron last night piled pressure on Royal Bank of
Scotland chiefs, signalling that he wanted the annual bonus of chief
executive Stephen Hester to be halved to below £1 million.
The Prime Minister’s call came as he set out his vision of a “socially responsible and genuinely popular capitalism”.
Last year, Mr Hester was awarded a bonus of £2 million in deferred shares, which he is not due to cash in until 2014.
It was suggested RBS chiefs were about to enrage politicians and the
public alike by offering him a bonus of up to £1.5 million for 2011 on
top of his £1.2m salary.’
‘While he too made clear no decisions had been taken on bonus payments at the 82% state-owned bank, he stressed Mr Hester would get significantly less than the £2m he received last year. “I can tell you something,” the PM said, “if there is a bonus, it will be a lot less than it was last year.”‘

http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/political-news/cameron-pressure-on-rbs-to-cut-chiefs-bonus-in-half.1327028837?_=86cf294a07a8aa25f6a2d82a8938f707a2d80ac3

Is 800k a lot less than 2 mil?
Anonymous

Long time lurker delurking.

Anecdote alert.

Lady at work. Young and v educated. Genuine central casting liberal/lefty europhile free range organic Guardianista. Flicking through the paper scanning referendum/Devo stuff, snapped out of the blue… “bloody Scots ..why dont they just piss off then”.

Well it interested me.
Anonymous

Where to beigin with that ramble of yours?????

“We’ve all been assuming that Salmond really wants DevoMax rather than independence”

I assure you that SNP members don’t believe that. Salmond has worked out that if Devo Max amounts to something like control of everything except Defence and Foreign affairs, the small further step to independence will come about over Trident or another bloody silly war.
Anonymous

Genuine central casting liberal/lefty europhile free range organic Guardianista.

Nice!!
Anonymous

What a totally and utterly crappy day.
Ishmael_X

But that is exactly consistent with what I have been saying. The posh lads have to cave in because they know that their goolies are held in a vice tightened by the mighty arm of the law. They are posturing and bluffing and their bluff has been called because hester has a contractual right which is immune to their interference.
Ishmael_X

I enjoyed the tennis; cracking match, Murray has risen inestimably in my estimation.
Anonymous

Remember when Labour voted against the welfare cap?

@benedictbrogan: Labour tries to outflank Tories by calling for lower welfare caps in the regions. Liam Byrne writes for @Telegraph
Anonymous

O/T discussion on 5 Live ref Faslane Naval Base largest employer in Scotland unsure of numbers. MOD advising difficulty in moving specialist jetties/fuelling/arming would take years. Seem to remember Chatham Naval Base as it was in the 70′s/80′s had a special jetty and crane for the refit of Nuclear Subs, alas now long gone. Point is no-one interviewed for Independence but all for the so called Devo max
dr spyn

If some bloody fools – Brown and Darling, felt that nationalisation was the answer to the balls up at RBS, then more thought over terms and conditions over pay and conditions was in order was required two years ago.

But then again, Cable seems to think that non playing Argentinian forwards are still worth £200,000 per week. If Cameron wants to act like some third rate populist, let him.
Mike Smithson

Time for PB NightHawks.
dr spyn

new thread.
Anonymous

Hester bonus of £10 million in 2009 defended by Darling = Good.

Hester bonus cut by 90% to £ 950,000 in 2012 = Bad
Kristin

  alanbeattie Alan Beattie

This is a truly striking invasion of sovereignty:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/33ab91f0-4913-11e1-88f0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1khHvSVJe

Deutschland uber alles? This is one of the worst things I’ve seen from the EU to date.
Kristin

I bet it isn’t lower than £26k, just higher in more expensive areas.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/jan/27/labour-back-welfare-benefit-cap
Anonymous

I’ve enjoyed the sport. Monty was quite sensational. But my wife is ill and my niece is in hospital.

politicalbetting.com

Is Salmond’s referendum question biased & unfair?

Does the boss of ICM have a point?

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH