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Ed drops to a negative rating amongst LAB voters

January 15th, 2012

Has Miliband now crossed a threshold?

More details of this morning’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times have started to emerge from behind the paywall. Although LAB is back into the lead on voting intention there’s gloomy news for Ed in the leader ratings when YouGov asks “Do you think Ed Miliband is doing well or badly as leader of the Labour party?”

For the first time ever more party supporters say he’s doing a “bad job” than say he’s doing a “good job”. Thus while on this measure Cameron has a net positive of 91%, Clegg 45%, the Miliband figure is -3%.

The field-work took place on Thursday and Friday after Ed’s big re-launch earlier in the week.

This is the first time, as far as I can recall, that a leader has had a negative rating amongst his own party supporters. Even in Nick Clegg’s worst moments, just after the AV referendum in May 2011, he still retained a small positive.

Being loyal to your leader, however bad it is, is one of the characteristics of party supporters. With this poll Ed seems to have crossed a threshold.

The political impact is that it will provide more ammunition for those in the movement who would like Ed to step aside and for a new leadership contest to be held.

Unlike the Tories and Lib Dems the red team is far less ruthless with leaders perceived as not doing well. The question is whether that will hold.

UPDATE: We now have the detail of the poll. One finding – 34% of LAB voters in YouGov poll said David Miliband would “make the best leader”. EdM was the choice of just 12%. Also – 59% of LAB voters say EdM ‘.. has the right policies, but does NOT look or sound like a possible PM’

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Recent Threads




  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “My recollection with 2005 was that Tories got more votes than labour in England, but no idea what that does to seats. could look tomorrow: gut feeling is that its a close run thing”

    It wasn’t close at all, actually – Labour were miles ahead.

  • Anonymous

    just saw this. makes sense.

  • Anonymous

    But-if the supposed anti-English driver of the SNP were actually true (which it isn’t), then Joan McAlpine would be a heroine. She isn’t, she is simply an inexperienced politician elected for the first time last May. Again, in Cameron style, the non-neutral referee Dimbleby allowed Nicola Sturgeon to be bullied about it on Question Time, thereby ironically neutralising it as an effective attack on the SNP in Scotland.

    In political terms by speaking without due care to how her words would be perverted by her opponents, she has allowed the SNP’s opponents a rare opportunity to pretend that she is anti-English when she simply believes (as I do) that the union and the unionist parties do not prioritise Scottish interests. 

  • Anonymous

    just checked wiki on 2005. ‘ [they] managed to win the popular vote in England while still ending up with 44 fewer MPs than Labour’

  • antifrank

    So you simply believe that your opponents are rogues or fools rather than people who hold different views from you?

  • Anonymous

    For those with Paywall access, Banquo has appeared in the comments

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/focus/article856897.ece

    “a practical guide issued by the SNP
    almost presents devo max as a feast where Scotland gets all the treats,
    leaving England with the leftovers. “

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “So you simply believe that your opponents are rogues or fools rather than people who hold different views from you?”

    Their actions rather speak for themselves.  They could have just respected the mandate delivered last year – as they said they would do.

  • Anonymous

    so Cameron doesn’t command a majority? 

    you keep saying stupid things and I will keep correcting you until you stop. I teach. I do this for a living.

  • antifrank

    If the SNP are going into battle on the basis that only they are true Scots, that’s a courageous strategy.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “you keep saying stupid things and I will keep correcting you until you stop. I teach. I do this for a living.”

    Ah, that explains your difficulty.  Teachers generally don’t like being answered back to – especially when they’re in the wrong.

    THERE IS NO TORY MAJORITY.  You can call that “stupid” if you like – I call it a fact.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “If the SNP are going into battle on the basis that only they are true Scots, that’s a courageous strategy.”

    That’s certainly a courageous interpretation of my words.

  • Socrates

    Stephen Colbert has released an ad in South Carolina, stating “If corporations are people, Mitt Romney is a serial killer”!

  • Plato

    Apols if posted already – this is rather amusing if you aren’t a Nit.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Va6r5Ez-VF8

  • Moniker of Monza

     James MacMillan disagrees with you.

     http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/culture/jmacmillan/100059628/alex-salmond-is-exploiting-scotlands-reservoir-of-anti-englishness-dont-be-surprised-if-it-overflows/

     The wretched McAlpine should go.

  • Anonymous

    The priority of the 3 major unionist parties is the establishment of a Westminster Government dominated by their particular party

    All else is understandably, but unacceptably to me and many others in Scotland, a secondary consideration.

    My unionist opponents are not fools (though some are indeed rogues like the “parcel of rogues in a nation” referred to by Burns) , but they have tried to fool the electorate that they could prioritise Scottish interests while pursing their principal goal-they can’t.

  • Anonymous

    But he is Tims Master..and he will be obeyed and his successors will also be obeyed..even if they spout twaddle..

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “James MacMillan disagrees with you.”

    Er, that’s fine.  It’s a free world.

  • Anonymous

    James MacMillan has always disagreed with me-and virtually everbody else :-)

  • Anonymous

    Apologies if already posted, there is a new downfall vid about the SNP
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Va6r5Ez-VF8

  • Anonymous

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jan/15/margaret-thatcher-iron-lady-ira

    The sympathetic figure of the ageing Maggie is played, by all accounts
    brilliantly, by the always excellent Glenn Close, her micro-managed
    Hollywood features magically transformed by hours of painstaking make-up
    into those of a normal-looking British woman.

    I thought Meryl Streep played the blessed St M?

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    He seems to think that the fact “he met this woman once” gives him some kind of special authority.  Well, I met her once as well, as have countless numbers of people, I suspect!  

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “Apologies if already posted”

    All right, we believe you, you’re not Plato’s alter ego.  Either that or this is an ingenious double bluff.

  • Anonymous

    There have been reports that Mossad is false-flagging anti-Iran operations as CIA initiatives, which is not calculated to impress the Americans.

  • Moniker of Monza

    It isn’t a free world. Unpleasant fanatics like McAlpine are in power in many places. Get rid of the lassie.

  • Anonymous

    You think that bothers the Israelis? Not nearly enough.

  • Anonymous

     ’McAlpine exposed by eminent, right-wing Conservative, neo Carlist, ultra Catholic Scottish composer MacMillan’ I think you meant to say.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “It isn’t a free world.”

    Only because we have the likes of Cameron telling us what we can and can’t do.  Joan McAlpine is a huge asset, for my money – when she’s not being quoted out of context.

  • Anonymous

    I posted it before hitting refresh and Plato had beaten me to it.
    No conspiracy, honest.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    I see that it was uploaded by Tom Harris – wonder if he wrote the script himself?  The bitterness about “lottery wins” would certainly tie in with what we’ve heard from him recently.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    I see that it was uploaded by Tom Harris – wonder if he wrote the script himself?  The bitterness about “lottery wins” would certainly tie in with what we’ve heard from him recently.

  • Anonymous

    Socrates

    Latest analysis is indeed that the US called the exercise off, not the Israelis. The US issue? Israel wont give them an assurance that they’ll attack Iran without telling the US first. They are in a wild sweat that the Israelis are going to go for it and clearly don’t know for sure. The major trigger is the plans to wind down Dimona which the US have interpreted, possibly correctly, as a precursor to an attack. Dimona will take time to close though. 

    As if the Israelis would be so stupid. They routinely do not tell the Americans about plenty (including their acquiring of their own nuclear capability) and no country is going to have its right to independent action stymied, whatever the consequences. 

    Still, lets see whether all those US troops who have parked up for a multi month stay go home or not.

  • Anonymous

    Socrates

    Latest analysis is indeed that the US called the exercise off, not the Israelis. The US issue? Israel wont give them an assurance that they’ll attack Iran without telling the US first. They are in a wild sweat that the Israelis are going to go for it and clearly don’t know for sure. The major trigger is the plans to wind down Dimona which the US have interpreted, possibly correctly, as a precursor to an attack. Dimona will take time to close though. 

    As if the Israelis would be so stupid. They routinely do not tell the Americans about plenty (including their acquiring of their own nuclear capability) and no country is going to have its right to independent action stymied, whatever the consequences. 

    Still, lets see whether all those US troops who have parked up for a multi month stay go home or not.

  • Anonymous

    It wouldn’t suprise me if it was written by Tom Harris

  • Anonymous

    No he should promote her.
    Just to see the reaction from yourself.

  • Anonymous

    I have just started watching Ed Miliband on the Andrew Marr Show. I am about three minutes in to the interview and can see immediately that there is scope for another Downfall spoof, if it not being made already.

  • Socrates

    Most countries don’t get ridiculous amounts of aid handed to them hand over fist from the US, despite the fact they’re a first world nation.

  • Moniker of Monza

    Joan of Arc of Prosperity. Burn Lassie Burn.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “Burn Lassie Burn.”

    CyberYoonYoonism reaches yet another low ebb.

  • Anonymous

    Labour are screwed. They made the critical mistake of letting their opponents define the position of the party.

    The Labour-hating PB.com herd and Telegraph-readers aren’t suddenly going to start supporting Labour.

    All Labour has done has single-handedly destroyed the narrative and undermined their own credibility. They’ve handed the Conservatives the next election on a plate.

  • Plato

    Crumbs – article on Balls’ speech yesterday is on 221 comments already

    http://labourlist.org/2012/01/yes-we-do-accept-cuts/

  • Anonymous

    I do not think he got an answer. The programme is likely to be delayed – given that we at least will now have a catapult on the second carrier then we would be able to use alternative planes.

  • Anonymous

    I can tell from your posts that your scared.
    Your more likely to combuste as the day gets closer.

  • Socrates

    Yes, she’s inexperienced enough to make the mistake of revealing what she really thinks. We all know its part of Salmond’s brilliance that he’s managed to put up a facade over the tartan jingoism.

    It was a similar thing in Ireland that made them poor as **** for a half century after independence: because once they left, it was the tub-thumpers in power. It took a couple of generations before they actually get objective, serious people in charge again. I’m sure the Scots would find the same thing with independence: it will suddenly become clear its not a panacea for all ills. But it would take decades before its realised by those with nationalism running through their veins that they’re poor and they’ve no longer got anyone else to blame.

  • Anonymous

    Its also 100% bullsh1te.

    The US has long term connections to and funded the same two local groups who are in the frame for launching these attacks and the Whitehouse is just doing some grassing to suggest to the Israelis that they are on their own. 

    It has had no issues at all with these attacks before but something upset them about this most recent hit (perhaps the timing) or they have just decided to try to show their displeasure and used this element.

    It makes no difference though. Its like Chamberlains coming off the plane from Munich, it means nothing. If the Israelis attack, US interests will be part of an Iranian response. The Whitehouse can either back up its words with action as the Israelis and Saudis have requested or they can try to wash their hands, and quite possibly fail. All they can hope for is to hold the Israelis off and pray sanctions bring Iran to the table or cause it to lash out, giving the excuse for a strike

    The biggest problem is that key Middle East ‘allies’ of the US, Israel, the UAE and most importantly the Saudis don’t trust the Whitehouse. The Iranian’s are basically in a state of confusion about what is next as they have too many scenarios to count but strategically believe that the Whitehouse wont pull the trigger and will let a nuclear Iran pass. They can also quite happily live with a few small scale shoot outs with the US in the Gulf, standing up to the imperialists and all that. 

    At this point they are calculating when to declare themselves as a nuclear weapons capable on the basis that the theoretical fait accompli will cause the US to step off, if they have any thoughts at all of a strike.

    The US military has a quite frightening plan that would bomb Iran back to the stone age but its a question of whether they’d use it.  

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “Yes, she’s inexperienced enough to make the mistake of revealing what she really thinks”

    Of course it’s what she really thinks.  The only criticism that could be reasonably made of her is that she was naive to use words that could be taken out of context and twisted.  But seen in its full context what she said was perfectly legitimate.

  • Socrates

    Out of the countries listed in that post, I would say the one most distrusted by their allies is Israel. It’s just recklessly risking the instability of the whole region to continue to colonise the West Bank. It’s reminiscient of the French in Algeria.

  • Anonymous

    Now if Joan McAlpine had said those sort of negative things about the likely state of England over the next few decades then that WOULD have been anti-English :-)

  • Charles

    Key points from the abstract you linked to:

    “The [intertemporal substitution]
    effect is likely to be much more important because the reduction in the
    price of goods bought in 2009 compared with 2010 gives an incentive to
    increase consumer spending this year .. we would expect the cut in VAT to
    boost consumer spending by about 1.2 per cent over what it would
    otherwise be.”

    Let’s do the math:

    - Consumer spending pre VAT cut of 100 ; VAT tax take of 17.5
    - Consumer spending post cut of 101.2; VAT tax take of 15.2
    - Most of the increase in spending is an intertemporal shift (i.e. bringing spending forward a year)
    - It encourages consumption rather than investment or production.

    No one is claiming that none of the tax cut is paid back.  I’m willing to accept your argument that the net cost is not £12.5bn but in fact £11.5bn.  It still doesn’t make it a good idea.

  • Socrates

    Well, “legitimate” is a pretty amorphous word. I don’t think there’s anything illegitimate about her jingoism, but let’s view it for what it is. Anyone who “interferes” with the SNP’s plans is “anti-Scottish”. You’re the first to react when some of the more right-wing posters on here start saying policies are “anti-English”.

    The mask has slipped, and it isn’t pretty. You’d do the cause more favours if you followed the example of people like Southam who call out bad behaviour from their own side.

  • Charles

    Rather than repeating this, can you suggest what proposal the Tories might (realistically) make that would be so unacceptable to the English people?

    Assuming that they keep the House of Commons, House of Lords, Monarchy, FPTP and the other basics, I don’t think anyone will care.  What they will care about is perceived equality between Scotland and Wales and England.

  • Anonymous

    I have seen a couple of sources that say Tories had more votes in England in 2005.

    here is one
    http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/2005_british_general_election.htm
    ‘More people voted for
    the Conservatives in England than for Labour – but the Conservatives won 92
    seats less than Labour within England (285 to 193). The Conservatives
    received 60,000 more votes than Labour in England.’Wiki says so as well if that counts.

  • Anonymous

    It’s actually quite impressive that after Miliband’s latest relaunch, Labour have engineered a worse position than before.

    Last week they simply opposed all the cuts.

    After Miliband and Reeves interviews today, the new position is that they oppose all the cuts but will keep all of them.

    It’s that kind of brilliant strategic thinking that must be worrying Osborne.

  • Anonymous

    But if you are bringing spending forward then it will be cut back the following year and so will tax revenues.

  • Charles

    I don’t think that voters will have much patience for another referendum on the electoral system

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “Anyone who “interferes” with the SNP’s plans is “anti-Scottish”.”

    Nope.  The interference is not with the SNP’s plans, but with the Scottish people’s sovereign authority – hence the anti-Scottish point.

    “You’d do the cause more favours if you followed the example of people like Southam who call out bad behaviour from their own side.”

    I do.  I know what it looks like and this ain’t it.  Sorry.

    On the subject of a lack of “prettiness”, I can only add my assent to JPJ2′s observation on your previous post – and in the circumstances, I’m not sure now is the ideal time to make references to “masks slipping”.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    The Tories did indeed get more votes in England in 2005.  Not sure what point you’re making – we were talking about seats earlier.

  • Anonymous

    Yes. I seem to recollect that the Tories are utterly committed to FPTP (although in is only PR that, relatively, saves them in Holyrood)-so it served them right, whereas I voted for AV and James Kelly advocated it strongly on PB.

    It all falls into the usual Tory pattern of wanting to pervert referendums so that no-one can vote on genuine PR or on Devo Max.

  • Anonymous

    ‘Scottish independence means a new constitution for England’ – indeed it it does not, and it is not England of course, it is the ‘rump’UK.  rUK will be 5 million people fewer than before.  Hardly the requirement for a new constitution.  The UK does not have a writen constitution anyway.

  • Anonymous

    What has that got to do with the distrust of the Whitehouse amongst regional allies over its stance on Iran?

  • Anonymous

    ‘your’ bretheren?

    I think Scotland has a massive interest in the affairs over the water.

  • Anonymous

    ‘Disqus won’t seem to let me post this reply’ – this means Disqus is exhibiting symptoms of artificial intelligence.  Computers may be taking over the world sooner than we think

  • Anonymous

    Its very worrying – you may be right.  Its a question of how unleadable the Labour party really are and how deeply they are split on their policies.

  • Kristin

    New thread 

  • http://tinyurl.com/Agreement-of-the-People John Lilburne

    But the Scottish people don’t have full sovereign authority, they are still in the UK.  So why is it anti-Scottish for UK politicians to have a view on Scotland when it relates to powers still held by the OK government over Scotland?

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    “this means Disqus is exhibiting symptoms of artificial intelligence.”

    Given that the sole problem with my comment was seemingly that I was trying to quote Kevin McKenna, you may well be right.

  • Charles

    I was being a little mischevious, I’ll admit.

    I suspect the LibDems will take a hammering at the next election.  It sucks for them, because they did the right thing by the nation and, some of them at least, have made pretty decent ministers.

    Noble sacrifice, but still sacrifice.

    Requiescat in pace

  • Socrates

    I think the actions of Israel in Palestine, showing complete disregard for her ally’s views, has been a key cause of the lack of trust between both sides on Iran. The US wouldn’t need the firm commitments its asking for if it could trust Israel to act prudently.

  • Charles

    And doesn’t the Welsh word for England mean “The Lost Lands” and the English are “the Aliens”

  • Socrates

    I’m not sure if you realise, but the Scottish are currently part of the United Kingdom, and their parliament is a devolved rather than a federal one. The idea that the UK can not comment on such matters is preposterous. The idea that such comment is actually “anti-Scottish” is narrow-minded jingoism.

  • Charles

    Why are you using dizzies?  If it’s insomnia, you should probably look at Ambien/Stilnox instead.  The other use for Roofies makes me shudder.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesKelly James Kelly

    Socrates : I’m not sure if you realise (OK, it’s blindingly obvious you don’t), but that doesn’t address the substance of my point at all.

    John Lilburne : The Scottish people do have full sovereign authority, both under this country’s tradition and under the principle of self-determination.  Therefore the question you ask me is based on a false premise.

  • Penddu

    England = Lloegr – dont know the etymology
    English(man) = Saeson – meaning Saxons