Here’s the 2006 poll.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1535193/Britain-wants-UK-break-up-poll-shows.html

Out of kilter with most findings on independence isn’t it?

apparently not..

Today’s poll provides a series of setbacks for Mr Salmond, who favours a “three question” referendum in which Scots are offered the choice of full independence, the status quo, or a “devolution max” option in which all powers other than foreign policy and defence are handed to the parliament in Edinburgh.Offered this precise choice by ICM, more Scots go for the status quo (37 per cent) than the other two options, both of which win 26 per cent support.

if that poll is done on a like for like basis then Scottish support for independence has actually fallen from 52% in 2006 down to 40%. Would find that hard to believe in the current circumstances.

A very revealing clue as to why Osborne dreamed up the amusing Cameron intervention for the unionist cause when he did – to the surprise and consternation of his lib dem coalition partners and labour – are in the dates in that article.

The committee on the WLQ/EV4EL was set under way just before the new year and just after the new year Cameron appears demanding that the scottish referendum be as soon as possible and this year if he could get his way. (which he can’t)

So when the report comes back in 2013 Cameron will face a huge backlash from his own conservatives if it is not seen as taking a hard enough stance on the WLQ and drastically cuts the number of scottish MPs or implements vote denial for those scottish MPs.

He will also face a backlash from his lib dem coalition partners if they think he is too harsh. Because despite supporting a drastic cull of scottish MPs in the past as a solution to the WLQ/EV4EL they probably don’t feel the same way now that they are facing annihilation from scottish voters and set of a boundary changes which is going to cripple them as well.

This committee would also report and recommend solutions to the WLQ even if the status quo was maintained so the lib dems and labour would be in the run up to a scottish referendum and facing a curtailing of their scottish contingent even if they don’t back Devomax.

Croyde is lovely, but South Hams is idyllic

And of course the complete lack of a credible Conservative offering north of the border or how that has come about has absolutely nothing to do with it either.

You can argue what you like . It won’t change the fact that only one Prime Minister will actually sign the papers and as I posted I don’t think Cameron wants that honour, particularly as he has nailed his colours to the Unionist cause (and therefore implied that the Unionist cause is not lost).

Whatever went before Cameron has made it clear he believes he could fix it for the foreseeable future and indeed his actions suggest he’s trying to. Now having taken on the responsibility of trying to save the union he will be cast as a failure if he ends up signing the indpendence documentation.

Now whether he will end up signing the documentation or not is another matter.

Similarly would he deserve the share of the blame he received if he did sign the papers. I doubt jit but that wouldn’t change the reality that he would be blamed and he would be seen as the man who lost the Union (Labour’s media spin machine would see to that).

Perhaps the Scottish currency could be called the Midge (100 bites to the midge).  Those with a deep sense of irony could call it the Blair or the Brown. 100 lies to the Blair or 100 nokias to the Brown (although I would prefer 100 stealths to the Brown).

Or the McBride – 100 smears to the McBride.

But seriously (and with some historical justification) Scotland could use the Scottish Dollar.

Today’s poll provides a series of setbacks for Mr Salmond, who favours a “three
question” referendum in which Scots are offered the choice of full
independence, the status quo, or a “devolution max” option in
which all powers other than foreign policy and defence are handed to the
parliament in Edinburgh.

Offered this precise choice by ICM, more Scots go for the status quo (37 per
cent) than the other two options, both of which win 26 per cent support.

Mr Salmond’s choice of a referendum in 2014 is also less popular (41 per cent)
among Scots than a vote “as soon as possible (43 per cent). More than
half English voters (52 per cent) also want a quick referendum.

Most Scots admit their nation would be worse off after independence (41 per
cent) than better off (38 per cent), while 51 per cent of English think the
Scots would be worse off.

It was always intended as two separate questions, not a FPTP biggest loser wins question.

Are the US getting very nervy at Israel?

Now Time magazine reports ‘Western intelligence sources’ as confirming that Israeli funded teams behind the assassination campaign against Iranian nuclear scientists just a few days after administration officials said the US wasnt involved.  

This hasnt just come out, its an administration sanctioned claim. The aim, if it is as it seems, is to try to isolate Israel, who the US are now genuinely scared is going to go for it against Iran. In short, the US doesnt want the blowback so by doing some choreographed grassing in the media its trying to separate itself.

Bad news in the event of an Israeli strike, it can’t and it won’t. 

Still. something doesn’t quite add up. Its a plausible course of action for the Obama administration do consider actions such as this but if they are as good as their public word, they’ll be the ones doing the hits on Iran, not Israel. 

Meanwhile in Syria, I mentioned to TimT the other day that with going public of one disgusted member of the Arab League mission wasnt a single isolated act of an individual, someone higher up was well aware of his course of action and guided it.  It was, potentially, part of a co-ordinated campaign by some urging a stronger hand.

Lo and behold today the Emir of Qatar suggests sending in Arab troops.  It remains to be seen if it gets traction but the concept has now been floated. The Free Syrian Army (FSA) has been largely in its cross border camps despite on the ground ambush and sabotage operations and occasional combat of defecting troops, so it still has its own dice to role. The inspiration is the Benghazi style situation of have a stronghold, build up strength then go forward. The FSA haven’t yet fully engaged and assuming they do so, things will get worse. Speculation on their numbers and strength varies wildly and Western types sent to have a look felt they were not at the time fully capable both in numbers and ability. Basic Training of TNC forces in Libya was around 6 weeks and it is believed a similar model is being built.  

Then rUK and Ireland must veto Scotland joining the EU since there must surely be illegal immigratio0n problems in allowing people into Scotland and then sneaking into England.

But the dreaded midge makes it difficult to portray Scotland as a holiday dreamland

Free Schools could not be more local.

‘you realise you have associated our product with suicide?’

I agree about letting the Scottish people have a choice, but the choice is a false one IMO – one about what is best for the SNP and not what is best for Scotland.

–

PS I missed you while you were away.

Thank you! It is always nice to be missed and congrats on your POTY award. I am glad you won it although it does seem to have been very close. I would have been a poor winner as I do not bet here. My betting is on shares via my CFD trading account so this place is useful for insights and trends. At least you are more involved in politics than more. The most I do is harangue MPs at business events and the Chamber of Commerce lunches.

Did you have a good time?

Oh yes!

I was in Paris for most of it. The weather was mixed, a bit like here, but the hotel was nice enough and we were fairly central between Saint Lambert and Montparnesse. It was a mixture of work and pleasure so I managed to get part of it paid for even though the kids had to go back and go to school/college.

We spent New Year’s Eve there and after our little break I had to change hotels (work!!) and go out to Choisy-le-Roi and stay in the Holiday Inn next to Orly. That was a bit dull because these chain hotels… well if you have been in one you have been in them all and Orly to Manchester is a pain because you have to connect at Heathrow whereas from Charles DeGaulle you can fly direct, but  my work was on the south side of Paris, not the north….

Anyway, I had fun and even the time after work was fun and I brushed up my traveller’s french and ate out as often as I could. Fortunately Choissy had some chinese restaurants and I was able to indulge once or twice when I wanted a change from French.

Now it is back to the usual stuff and trying to sweat off the extra pounds I put on. I hope you had a good time over the holidays and that everything went as planned.

Bev.

We need a referendum in England to have independence from Scotland.

No more Gordon Browns.

The punt for most of its time was tied to the pound…it was only in later years that it was broken away from that tie and it fell and fell !!  Nuff said!!!  Scottish Groats….hmmmmm

I like this in general but disagree with devo max as it is a case of having your cake and eating it!!
If Scotland gets the vote on devo max and wants it..then the Barnett formula needs to be sorted to equal everyone in the UK not just for the benefit of Scotland!