LDs up 3 while LAB regain the lead

There’s a new ComRes telephone poll out for the Independent and the figures, with changes on the last phone poll from the firm are in the chart above.

Not much change except the Lib Dem share moving up 3 to 14%.

The non-VI questions all follow ComRes’s standard pattern of making a statement and then asking whether respondents agree or not. I loathe this approach but it is all we’ve got

The pollsters finds that Most people still blame Labour for Britain’s economic woes. Asked whether the Coalition is more to blame than the previous Labour Government for the current state of the economy 26% agree while 62% disagree. Amongst LAB voters 48% think the Coalition is more to blame but a surprisingly high proportion 42% disagrees.

Asked whether they trust Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne to make the right decisions on the economy, the response was 35% to 55% disagreeing – a net “economic trust” rating of minus 20 points.

LAB’s position is much worse. Only 24% trust Mr Miliband and Mr Balls to make the right decisions on the economy, while 65% don’t – a net rating of minus 41. Amongst LAB supporters 42% do not trust the party leader and Shadow Chancellor to make the right decisions, while 51% do.

And so to Florida

Voting has been taking place all day in the four state in the 2012 primary season. The polls close at 8pm 0100 UK time when we should get exit poll projections. The big question is the size of Romney’s victory.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

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How big will Mitt win by tonight?

It is extraordinary that only nine days ago Newt had a big lead in Florida and looked all set to take a second successive state. As we all know it hasn’t actually happened like that and if some polls are right Mitt will win with a double digit lead

Well after facing probably the biggest onslaught of negative advertising ever in a primary and having two mediocre debate performances the outlook for the ex-house speaker does not look good. Mitt has outspent him by a factor of about seven and his numbers have slipped.

Expect to hear claims that Mitt is using the vast financial resources at his disposal to buy the presidency.

But how far will Newt be behind? That’s one of the more interesting betting markets. Betfair have three options and I’ve got a small bet on at about 6/4 that Mitt’s margin will be under 12.5%.

The bet might add a little excitement to what seems a pretty boring night.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

NO voters say they are less likely to change their mind

A new telephone poll of Scottish voters by Ipsos-MORI for the Times puts support for independence at 39% – which is just one point up on the firm’s last poll in December.

The question that was put was the one proposed last week by Alex Salmond – “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?” and which has caused some controversy.

In the December poll MORI asked those sampled if they “agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an independent country, which is no longer part of the UK”.

In the last poll MORI found 57% supporting the union while this latest survey has it at 50%. So it maybe that the new proposed wording does have an impact there.

Where Alex Salmond appears to have a challenge is in winning over pro-union voters. According to the poll they say they are less likely to change their mind.

A total of 82 per cent of of those opposed to independence said they were definite in their view compared to 69% for the other side.

The firm has a good recent record in Scotland. Last May its final Holyrood survey proved to be the most accurate of all the pollsters covering that election.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

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Welcome and join tonight’s big political conversation

Here are a couple of tweets from with the past half hour.

Speculation in Brussels that Cam is delayed because he is having to clear his lines with Clegg

— Tim Shipman (Mail) (@ShippersUnbound) January 30, 2012

Santorum and Gingrich both beat Romney 1 on 1 in Ohio and Missouri. One will have to drop out if Mitt’s going to be stopped

— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) January 30, 2012

Have a good evening.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH