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Can Cameron now expect a “veto-boost” in Feltham?

December 12th, 2011

Enter’s PB’s By-election prize prediction competition

As mentioned on the previous thread Ladbrokes have agreed to provide a prize of £200 of free bets to the winner our PB’s prediction competition on Thursday’s Feltham & Heston by-election.

The timing of the election, within a week of the PM’s dramatic night at the EU summit in Brussels, means that we’ll get an electoral reaction which might provide good pointers to the future.

Today’s Times reports a Populus poll taken from Friday until yesterday which has 57% saying they thought that Cameron was right to use the veto, and just 14% disagreeing. In other good news for the PM 53% agreed that this showed that Cameron is “willing to stand up for Britain”.

As Anthony Wells points out most of the fieldwork would have been carried out before Nick Clegg cricitised the veto. So far no voting intention data from the poll has been published – I guess that that might happen this evening.

What impact, if any, will these developments have on Thursday’s by-election. The table shows the result from last time for the three main parties and UKIP together with two opinion polls that have been carried out.

Feltham & Heston General Election Ashcroft poll Survation poll
Labour 43.6 52 53
Conservative 34 30 29
Liberal Democrat 13.7 10 7
UKIP 2 5 7

There are two things you have to predict for the competition which will be decided on which entry is least wrong taking account responses to both questions.

Q1. To two decimal points what will Labour’s margin be over the Tories? If you think that Cameron’s party will be ahead of Labour then express this as a minus number.

Q2. To two decimal points what will the Lib Dems margin be over UKIP? If you think that Farage’s party will be ahead of the LDs then express this as a minus number.

You’ll have until 11pm tomorrow (GMT) to get your prediction in by posting on this thread. AndyJS will be monitoring the entries as they come in.

Note that the prize can only be won by an entrant who is 18 or over. The winner will need to have a Ladbrokes account, or to set one up to redeem. No cash alternative is available.

On all matters relating to the competition my decision is final.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH
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  • Plato

    Sky are having a Kleenex moment over Guardian – lead news story and lots of Nick Davis footage.

  • Anonymous

    Its much easier for Cameron. All the PM has to do is ask Ed what he would have done in the same situation and then sit back and let ED do his talking jellyfish with a stammer impression….

  • tim

    I don’t think the EPP would accept any of the parties from the ECR (except the Tories) as the mainstream centre right in all the countries concerned are already represented in the EPP, and the ECR parties are generally a mix of cranks and extremists, or in the case of Poland, a party which keeps splitting with the faction in the ECR being the receptacle of the most right wing elements.

  • http://tomknoxbooks.com SeanT

    The irony is, I believe a lot of Brits could be persuaded of the virtues of a tightly knit northern European Federation, which restricted itself to economics, foreign policy and defence.

    Members would include Sweden, Finland, Britain, Ireland, Holland, Germany, Denmark. Maybe Belgium, maybe France. Try and get Norway on board. Call it a new Hanseatic League.

    In this new Hanseatic League, all the other EU bollocks from fisheries to human rights to agriculture to harmonized criminal law would be junked, the entire EU bureaucracy would be massively slimmed down, the accounts properly audited, Strasbourg closed, the Commission shrunk but elected, and the ECHR ceremonially razed to the ground.

    The European Parliament would meet a few times a year in the various capitals: Berlin, London, Copenhagen, etc. MEPs would be national MPs made to work harder.

    There. I could sign up for that, quite happily.

  • Anonymous

    @journodave: So it turns out that whole Euro pact was designed never to work because even Germany won’t meet the targets: http://t.co/CKlXqiKf

  • Anonymous

    Don;t tell me the French and Germans are coming cap in hand to Cameron…..is 2015 in the bag???

  • Richard Nabavi

    What a completely idiotic comment.

    It is a statement of simple fact that Cameron did exactly what he said he would do.

    As it happens, he usually does. Anyone who wants to know what he thinks and what he will do simply needs to listen to what he says. That’s not cheerleading; it’s a betting tip.

  • Anonymous

    Scotland?

  • Anonymous

    Probably a bit of both, both France and Germany realise they have let things go too far and at some point they will need UK support – in the IMF for instance.

    Time to cold shoulder them both for a while – economic fog, Continent isolated !

  • tim

    If Cameron had said he would run under a bus and then ran under a bus, I suspect you would still be cheer-leading.

    I doubt Richard believes Dave can be harmed by mere buses, even bendy ones.

  • Plato

    Oh dear – FT has spotted that Germany wouldn’t meet the proposed new treaty criteria http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/12/12/793241/fines-all-round/

    “Now, its been pointed out repeatedly that even Germany has struggled to stay below the Maastricht thresholds. But these two tables from Eurostat, reproduced by Macro Business (h/t Yves Smith) really hammer the point home.

    What was supposedly agreed in Europe on Friday just ain’t gonna happen.”

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    Please can Fangsy clarify his prediction: it’s not clear whether he’s using dashes or minus signs. I realise it’s pretty obvious which one he probably means but it’s best to be clear about it.

  • Mike Smithson

    New thread

    Could Dave win a general election on the 2010 boundaries? How seriously should we take election speculation? http://bit.ly/uGhfmM

  • Anonymous

    And there is no obligation for them to consistently vote against the EPP now they are seperate. The EPP is however a coalition and I assume although I may be wrong there was/is an expectation of a level of collective responsibility.

    Furthermore, if thats the basis of your point then there are a myriad of other considerations (not least being in coalition with a fairly solidly left of centre party and the constrainst of the financial situation) that come into play which I suggest makes it impossible to say that leaving the EPP has affected the way that other leaders treat them and even if it was a factor it would be a marginal one.

    Thats even if they remember (were any of the leaders in power in 1997?) what its like dealing with a Tory led UK Government (and a coalition at that?). Its been a very long time since the COnservatives were in power at all (it certainly felt it anyway) and the Conservative Party is a very different beast to what it was in 1997.

    It seems to me that your argument is a bit thin…….

  • Anonymous

    MrsB “What about Christopher Monckton? He’s in another party. (Thank God).”

    I agree with you. Monckton has shifted into his dotage.

  • Max

    Probably true, but it would give Dave a way of preserving his decision to take the Tories out of the EPP. The extremists can just be ejected from the EPP a few months/years down the line. By calling it a merger Dave retains his decisions and can play it up as giving Britain a better role within the EUP to change attitudes etc…

    If this poll in Germany is accurate then public opinion on the EU is changing, I’ve been picking this up for a few months and now it is being confirmed by polling evidence. Dave could change the dynamic of the EPP if he plays it right and draw the Scandinavians and Germans away from Federalism and move it down the agenda. That is not possible from within the ECR. It was not a good decision to leave the EPP, IMO, but at that can still be rectified.

  • Jonathan

    Q1: 15.707963
    Q2: 3.1415927

  • Max

    I would too. As long as it was written into the constitution of the HL that France can never be let in. They would inevitably ruin it.

  • Anonymous

    That’s probably the most advantageous outcome. It seems more acheivable now I think than when the policy to withdraw was originaly founded, when there is an obvious democratic deficit beginning to appear which the right of centre parties might find more agreement over.

  • Anonymous

    ‘So why didn’t the SNP government have the balls to call a referendum between 2007 and 2011?’

    The SNP proposed a referendum bill in the last parliament, all three Unionist parties united in blocking it making it impossible for it to be passed.

    Annabel Goldie: “The issue is now dead.”
    Jim Murphy: “The Scottish government should suspend their constitutional obsession”
    Mike Rumbles, Lib Dems’ chief whip: “They need to ditch the referendum and ditch it now.”

    All in direct contradiction to their current positions of course.
    And people wonder why they’re held in increasingly universal contempt.

  • MrsB

    Actually Mr Pork, Mr Senior is correct so far, in that the Lib Dems have not broken up the Coalition.

    Much more interesting is the stuff TSE linked to earlier, that shows just over 50% of people don’t know whether Cameron’s veto was a good thing or a bad thing for either us or Europe. And the other 50% are almost evenly divided between those who think it a good thing and those who think it a bad thing.

    Now tell me, what do the SNP think?

  • Anonymous

    ‘You mean like ex labour MP Oswald Mosley’

    The fact that you fail to mention that he was also a Conservative mp tells us all we need to know.

  • Socrates

    Canada to sign free trade deal with the EU:

    http://lavalnews.ca/article/Canada-poised-to-sign-free-trade-deal-with-EU-193100

    Presumably, we could get similar terms as a NAFTA member.

  • Anonymous

    So now Labour see the error in trying to side with Brussels against the wishes of the British people (they have read the poll numbers) they’ve done what they did over the AV referendum and stabbed the Libdems in the back again to hopefully gain maximum advantage in the election stakes.

    Did I read that Ed admitted he to would have used the veto if forced to as well? The Libdems are looking a bit isolated now.

  • Anonymous

    If the German people want out of the EU, the EU is fucked.

  • Anonymous

    ‘It is a statement of simple fact that Cameron did exactly what he said he would do.’

    That’s what the Labour lemmings can’t get their heads round, a leader actually doing what they said they were going to do.

    I have some sympathy, after 13 years of Labour leaders alternating between u-turns and capitualtion to all EU requests it must be very confusing.

    Don’t forget that one of their leaders handed the EU £ 3 billion per annum of UK taxpayers money in the hope it would enhance his job prospects with them. But still got rejected.

  • dr spyn
  • Anonymous

    On topic, good points made earlier in the thread re postal voting. We can expect a very low relative turnout with the time of year and weather forecast, so the postal votes should play a disproportionate role. Are there any pointers here as to who has the best sign-up / GOTPV operation? I may have overestimated the Lib Dem lead if they’ve been concentrating on winning ‘new’ voters when we can’t expect too many to turn out. As UKIP votes tend to come from the older age-groups and the Lib Dems from the younger (don’t know how true this remains post-Coalition), there’s got to be a half-decent chance of a UKIP third place.

  • Anonymous

    Q1 Labour lead over Conservative: + 24.55%
    Q2 Lib Dem lead over UKIP: – 6.51%

  • Philiph

    Q1 Labour lead Cons by 14.14
    Q2 Lib Dem lead UKIP by 5.88

  • Andy Cooke

    Q1: 17.21%
    Q2: 2.88%

  • Disraeli

    Given the position he had put himself in Cameron had no other option.

    Cameron should take a fair share of the blame for where the UK finds itself, but it is unfair to imply that the situation was wholly or even mainly of his doing. In a way we have been heading towards something like this since we first joined the EEC. Cameron has only a bit part in the bigger picture which you allude to in your second sentence ….

    How he got to such a friendless place is the interesting bit.

    Indeed it is. A fascinating one, which I feel both eurosceptics AND europhiles might find very uncomfortable in places.

  • Toms

    I shall go for these:
    Q1: 23.01
    Q2: -1.01

  • Anonymous

    Q1- 18.88%
    Q2- 1.63 %

  • Anonymous

    Q1 17.85
    Q2 4.61

  • Sunil Prasannan

    Q1 17.02%
    Q2 1.05%

  • Anonymous

    Q1. 14.82%
    Q2. 2.18%

  • John Tracey

    1. 21.55

    2. 6.95

  • Anonymous

    Q1: +15.00%
    Q2: +1.00%

  • RodCrosby

    Q1. 19.60
    Q2. 3.65

  • Anonymous

    Q1: 14.35%
    Q2: 0.95%

  • Anonymous

    Labour lead over Conservative 18.3%

    Lib Dem lead over UKIP minus 2.1%

  • Anonymous

    Q1 Labour lead over Conservative 19.18
    Q2 Lib Dem lead over UKIP 2.21

  • Anonymous

    Labour over Conservative: 16.27%
    Lib Dem over UKIP: 3.87%

  • Anonymous

    Q1: +21.02
    Q2: +3.33

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_BEVMNSX4XCJPD5C3EJ7KIEXIMI Peter

    Q1: +22.08
    Q2: +0.46

  • Anonymous

    17.69
    1.8

  • Anonymous

    17.69
    1.80

  • Verulamius

    1) 18.61
    2) 2.46

  • Anonymous

    1. 15.15%

    2. 6.65%

  • Anonymous

    my prediction (although I do not have a Ladbrokes account)
    Difference between Cons and Labour = 7.35
    Difference between Liberals and UKIP=-3.25

    I just feel this is the outcome. bet on it. Like this post. The more likes i get the happier I am :-)

  • Anonymous

    Q1 14.37%
    Q2 1.96%

  • Chris A

    Q1 11.23%
    Q2 4.56%

  • Richard Tyndall

    Q1. Lab lead 10.33
    Q2. LD lead 7.51

  • James M

    Q1: Labour lead 2.36
    Q2: LD lead -1.57

  • Anonymous

    Q1 19.14
    Q2 1.27

  • Anonymous

    Q1: 18.76%
    Q2: minus 0.44%

  • http://twitter.com/iamsean2014 Sean Lawless

    Q1 – 22.35
    Q2 – 3.35

  • Anonymous

    q1 15.01
    q2 9.70

  • Anonymous

    Q1 17.32
    Q2 04.74

  • BenM_Kent

    Q1 9.25
    Q2 7.40

  • Anonymous

    Q1. To two decimal points what will Labour’s margin be over the Tories? 9.75
    Q2. To two decimal points what will the Lib Dems margin be over UKIP? 1.00

  • Raymond Kelly

    Q1 19.12%, 6541 votes
    Q2 4.31%, 1471 votes

  • Nick Davies

    Q1) 11.09
    Q2) 3.32

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Peter-Lucas/1081185059 Peter Lucas

    Q1. 24.3 Q2. -5.2

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Peter-Lucas/1081185059 Peter Lucas

    Q1. 23.4 Q2. -5.3

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_QYFSJVOECDCQRY76NYEH534QYI Pete

    Q1. 15.27
    Q2. 2.42

  • pantherdave8

    Q1 18.27
    Q2 5.94

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Tom-Hancock/614276211 Tom Hancock

    Q1 19.75
    Q2 5.34

  • Anonymous

    Labour margin 23.00
    LD margin 3.00

  • old_labour

    Q1. 29.96%
    Q2. 00.85%

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=654136960 Harry Hayfield

    Question 1: +23.55%
    Question 2: -0.5%

  • Anonymous

    Q1. 18.25

    Q2. 5.55

  • Anonymous

    Labour’s margin be over the Tories +8.00

    Lib Dems margin be over UKIP +1.00

  • Anonymous

    labour +15.00

    libdems + 5.00

  • http://twitter.com/kevinbarrett1 Kevin Barrett

    Q1. To two decimal points what will Labour’s margin be over the Tories?
    12.36%

    Q2. To two decimal points what will the Lib Dems margin be over UKIP?
    3.02%

  • nialldermotmichael

    Lab over Con 18.03%

    LD over UKIP 4.91%

  • Diego Frieden

    LAB margin over CON: 16.47%
    LB margin over UKIP: 1.83%

    Thanks and take care.

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    Q1: 17.36

    Q2: 2.14

  • Anonymous

    1/  17.84%
    2/    5.86%

  • Anonymous

    1. 17.62
    2. 4.15

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    JCB71: the competition closed at 11pm yesterday.

  • Anonymous

    q1 22.81
    q2. -0.91
    Biggest loser – Vince Cable as no evidence of LibDems doing very well in the two wards he is due to inherit.

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