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Could the government fall in Britain’s online betting paradise?

October 22nd, 2011

A guest slot from “PB’s Man on the Rock”

In Gibraltar’s forthcoming general election, now only a month away, the Chief Minister Peter Caruana is hoping to be re-elected for a fifth consecutive term in office although, after being in power for the last 16 years, he has made it clear that, were he to be successful, this would be his last election.

Under Caruana, Gibraltar has become something of an on-line Las Vegas in Europe. About 20 online betting companies, including all the big British names, now operate in the shadow of the Rock, employing about 2,000 people – about one in every eight workers.

Gibraltar remains a British Overseas Territory, but under the 2006 constitution, the Rock gained its own sovereignty on all matters except Defence and International Relations. Since 1989 it has become one of the key players in the world of international on-line gambling.

‘Gibraltar is a minute speck on the globe,’ said Freddie Ballester of the territory’s Betting and Gaming Association. ‘But when it comes to internet gaming, it is probably the most important jurisdiction in the world.’

Caruana, the leader of the Gibraltar Social Democrat Party, is the darling of the centre-right vote and on the surface he seems to have a cast-iron case for re-election. Economic activity in Gibraltar has been largely unaffected by the world downturn and many of Caruana’s recent policies are obvious vote-winners both for individuals and for businesses. The Rock has low rates of incomes and corporate tax, zero income tax on pensions, no inheritance tax, no capital gains tax, full financial support for university students, and many more fiscal benefits.

But, despite such vote-winning policies, a recent opinion poll, run jointly by the Chronicle, the main local newspaper, and the Gibraltar Broadcasting Corporation, tipped a ‘landslide’ victory for Fabian Picardo, the newly-elected leader of the Opposition. In April of this year, Picardo, a young lawyer, succeeded Joe Bossano as leader of the Gibraltar Socialist Labour Party which, in an alliance with the Liberal party, forms the Opposition. Bossano, a socialist of the old school, was the Chief Minister from 1988 – 1996 and he will forever be linked with his failure to stop the industrial-scale smuggling of tobacco into Spain, an activity which badly tarnished Gibraltar’s reputation.

‘We’ve told the public that, if elected, our first order of business will be to reform the way that government in Gibraltar is done and then to make it truly open and transparent,’ said Picardo. Interestingly, the Chronicle/ GBC poll highlighted the voters’ main concern as being ‘Caruana’s autocratic style of leadership’ rather than ‘Housing’ which has traditionally been the main concern on a Rock where building land is in extremely short supply.

But having asked scores of local people for their tip for the outcome of the election, I’m tired of hearing that, ‘It’s far too close to call.’




  • Anonymous

    Well said TSE. The barmy army who secured no seats at the general election and even its current leader, when facing no Tory or Labour opposition, could only make third place against Bercow at the general election in Buckingham.

  • http://tomknoxbooks.com SeanT

    UKIP are a joke party. Apart from Farage, who is a drunken but likeable raconteur, they have not a single plausible personality in their ranks. No one you would trust to run a tombola, let alone the UK.

    Of course they don’t get Westminster votes. No one wants a Busload of Blazered Fraggles running the country.

    What is amazing is the level of votes they DO get in EU elections, despite their being a joke. Remember they came second in the last EU election.

    That’s yer eurosceptic vote. People are so desperate to express their contempt for Europe they will vote for idiots.

  • Anonymous

    I think there is a lot to be gained from the vote on Monday night.
    What if…..? There is a substantial vote for a referendum but the vote is lost (will happen). A major fuss is then kicked up by Eurosceptic MPs and especially the right wing press en mass…..
    This festers, constantly reminding the public how politicians have lied again and again, for month upon month. This also helps to put the Euro crisis up the headline scale on both tv and in the press.
    Assuming the whole thing doesn’t actually self destruct (which is a good possibility), we along with the rest of Europe will go through a recession next year-one that can clearly be blamed on the European politcians screwing up.
    When we get to the Euro elections the entire right wing press go overboard for UKIP who go on to win wth 30-40% of the vote. The end of the coalition is in sight and as the two parties decouple Cameron makes Europe a core issue. He accepts that UKIPs victory was the British people demanding that we have an in/out referendum. Optimistically that happens along with the GE but realistically it is the no.1 issue the Tories promote in the campaign. They say we get a referendum and they will support exit from the EU.
    The climate at this time will be major hostillity to the EU, in some countries there will be civil unrest as economies are just in near meltdown. Labour and the Lib Dems will have no answer, they can’t back a referendum that the Tories will campaign for a yes to exit vote. Labour will have a substantial exit group within it’s ranks anyway so will appear split, the Lib Dems just fighting a hopeless cause….
    I can dream….!

  • Anonymous

    Beware, you could be describing the Lib Dems next time round!

  • Anonymous

    I believe it was and I did not know this till I looked it up on Wiki.

    “Later, there were plans for a further scene, showing Rick, Renault and a detachment of Free French soldiers on a ship, to incorporate the Allies’ 1942 invasion of North Africa; however, it proved too difficult to get Claude Rains for the shoot, and the scene was finally abandoned after David O. Selznick judged “it would be a terrible mistake to change the ending.”[32]“

  • dr spyn

    I will read that again tomorrow. Thanks for posting the link. What have the Romans ever done for us?

  • The Screaming Eagles

    Our attitudes to Europe are weird, by common consent our most Eurosceptic PM of the last few decades was Margaret Thatcher signed the Single European Act, which in my humble opinion advanced the aims of ever closer union more than the Maastricht and Lisbon treaties ever did.

    To be honest, how many people vote in the Euros based on the parties positions on Europe?

    The Euros and local election results in non GE-results are basically giant protest votes and their results shouldn’t be over-analysed.

  • http://twitter.com/MorrisF1 Morris Dancer

    In a slightly unpleasant mirror of the unnecessary Conservative contretemps the site seems to have become a little more vindictive in recent days.

    On a happier note it’s now more likely than not that I’ll be offering qualifying tips for India (although not certain). I hope this doesn’t jinx it but I rather like the look of the track.

  • http://www.biologymad.com HD2

    see later post

  • http://www.biologymad.com HD2

    And what would have happened if she had refused to sign? Considering the wetness of her Cabinet – Noah would have been looking for Gopher wood – she’d no choice.

    Sign or quit.

  • http://tomknoxbooks.com SeanT

    But where does the protest vote go? To UKIP. Not the Greens or the Nits or John Loony or the BNP (tho they all prosper in their way)

    No, it goes to UKIP, massively. So massively, they come SECOND, beating Labour and the Lib Dems. Imagine if the Greens or the BNP came SECOND in any other national election, we’d never hear the end of it.

    The people are sending out a pretty clear signal, but of course the europhile Establishment chooses to ignore it.

  • The Screaming Eagles

    Mr Dancer, could you give me a link to your website please.

    I’ve managed to lost the link, in return, I promise I won’t compare Ed Miliband to Hannibal for the rest of the weekend.

  • The Screaming Eagles

    She was a woman of convictions.

    She should have formed a new party and fought an election on such policy.

  • http://www.biologymad.com HD2

    Now, you and I both know that’s a silly comment.

  • http://www.youtube.com/ajs41#p/p Andy JS

    On this radio programme some of the interviewees have asked for their words to be spoken by actors. Those interviewees are Tory MPs talking about Europe:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b015zm4c

  • Anonymous

    Sort of begs the question what could UKIP do if they had anyone vaguely competent in their leadership.

  • The Screaming Eagles

    In the 2004 Euros UKIP did very well, a year later in a general election, they did bugger all. Ditto 2009 and 2010.

    The European Elections are UKIP’s raison d’etre.

    If there were elections for an Environmental Parliament, the Greens would do well.

    Why do the the Greens have an MP and UKIP don’t?

  • The Screaming Eagles

    So she was prepared to remain PM than resign and stick to her convictions on Europe.

  • Peter the Punter

    Thank you, Exeunt. So, it seems not all my memory cells have not been destroyed by drink, drugs and excessive posting on PB.

    Sadly, my enjoyment of the film has been undermined recently by my reading of Churchill’s account of the North Africa campaigns. Seems to me the French spent more time fighting each other than the Germans.

    Plus ca change….

  • Anonymous

    I’m a pragmatic eurosceptic Tory who utterly despairs of the short sightedness of the rebels and the Cameron knockers who see Europe as the only game in town, and who are happy to see the party split. Again. For those that have said that the Tories should look for a new leader to fulfill their pipe dreams, a question. Which Tory, past or present or future, could have realistically led the party with an anti Europe agenda and been in with a chance of holding a sufficient majority to carry out that agenda.

  • http://tomknoxbooks.com SeanT

    It has been the singular good fortune of the British Establishment that its “new right” and “far right” parties have been generally led by fools, over the last century or so.

    A determined charismatic rightwing leader could easily do a Pym Fortuyn.

    See what Salmond has done for the Nits, as a comparison.

  • Plato

    “distressed”

    WTF?

    Would you dream of using that expression about a bloke disagreeing with you? I think not.

    Did I say I didn’t know the risks in sticking £500 on a horse, no.

    I did point out it was a donkey to another poster and you jumped in to justify why he was just bad luck and claim I should recall who other syndicate members were two yrs on – yes.

    Patronising sums up your whole tone.

    Good grief.

  • The Screaming Eagles

    A Sunday Telegraph investigation has established there are much closer links between Mr Werritty and Lord Astor of Hever, the Under Secretary of State for Defence than had been realised.

    Lord Astor was actually a trustee of the charity, Atlantic Bridge, which employed Mr Werritty and paid for him to travel the world alongside Dr Fox.

    The peer, it can be revealed, is also closely connected to several of the individuals who funded the charity and with some of those who continued secretly to pay for Mr Werritty’s activities after it was wound up.

    The investigation raises questions over whether Lord Astor knew how Mr Werritty was apparently presenting himself as Dr Fox’s adviser, knew who he was meeting, and knew that Mr Werritty was spending money from Pargav, the company funded by secret donors, on lavish travel and tailoring.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8843804/Second-Defence-Minister-faces-questions-over-links-with-Liam-Foxs-best-man.html

  • Anonymous
  • Sunil Prasannan

    Over the centuries, more than half of France was controlled at some time by England. Here is a map showing the aggregate area controlled by the English during the Angevin Empire era and during The 100 Years’ War:

  • http://tomknoxbooks.com SeanT

    I’m a reluctantly europhile ex-sceptic, and a rightwinger, who utterly despairs of the pig’s arse Cameron and Pals have made of this vote.

    It tells me he doesn’t understand the sceptic mindset – a mindset which is convinced and evangelical. Euroscepticism is like a Faith, yet it is a Faith grounded in Reason, as they see it. And they have a point.

    He should have let them expound their beliefs in a Free Vote, then shrugged it off.

    Cameron is a detached, slightly vulgar posh villa in a party of Victorian terraces. This will be his undoing.

  • Anonymous

    Well said Sqwak.

  • http://www.biologymad.com HD2

    Her successor would have either caved in to ‘The Wets’ or reversed the changes she had wrought.

    Neither was palatable.

    History proved her right – Major was about as wet as the Pacific and utterly out of his depth (petulant, too).

    Bliar was, well, a liar, and Brown was prepared to sign anything, as long as he was not in front of the cameras (so he could find where the dotted line was, was it in Braille?)

  • Anonymous

    Spot on, Mike ! 2 -1 in favour of staying in. What are the odds ?

  • Plato

    CBSNews CBS News
    Can Herman Cain win Iowa without campaigning hard there? (From John Dickerson @Slate) http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20124217-503544/can-herman-cain-win-iowa-without-campaigning-hard-there/

    “DES MOINES – Herman Cain has captured lightning in a bottle. That’s the political cliche for the blast of popularity he’s experiencing. But in Iowa, a state that has traditionally rewarded well-organized campaigns, the question is whether Cain is all lightning and no bottle. His supporters and political consultants are trying to get him to spend time and energy in the state, but he has a different plan.

    “He really doesn’t have much of an organization,” says Jeffrey Jorgensen, the chairman of the Pottawattamie County Republican Party who supports Cain and calls him the “Anti-Obama.” “Since Ames, he has disappeared and has not been back.” Jorgensen says he’s been having conversations with the campaign “to get Herman back here, but for whatever reason he hasn’t been back.”

    If Cain does well in Iowa, it could upend the entire premise of the caucus process: In order to win in Iowa, candidates must spend time in the state wooing the famously coddled voters with personal appearances and vast organizations.

    There is a lot of head-scratching going on among the Republican political class over Cain’s reluctance to come pick up the support that appears to be his for the taking.

    He is very popular in the state, a finding confirmed by a University of Iowa poll that shows him with 37 percent support, 10 points ahead of Romney. Doing well in Iowa would offer a strong kickoff for his campaign against his better-funded rivals Romney and Rick Perry…”

  • Anonymous

    The thing is, there is no comparison between now and the 1990′s, because the Conservative Party is actually united over Europe. It is a Conservative Party by an overhwelming margin.

    It just so happens its being lead by ardent europhiles (who presented themselves as sceptics in order to get the leadership) Sooner or later those europhiles will be repaced by leaders who actually reflect the will of the party, but its not like the 1990s when they were genuinely split between between philes and sceptics.

  • Anonymous

    and by giving a free vote,he would have also got rightwing press on his side.

    Cameron would have won both ways,eurosceptics on his side and still no vote on Europe with the help of labour,lib dems and his euro loving lot ;-)

  • GeoffM

    It is thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com

    Excellent site.

  • Socrates

    A very decent apology Richard – and more thorough than was needed. I’m sure I make factual errors on here sometimes and can be a fairly stuck-in debater, so I do understand!

    It’s reasonable to say I did unfairly throw you in with the views and tactics of the main bulk of sceptics, so such comments should be seen targeted away from you and towards people like Anthony Watts. I think it’s good that reasonable, intellectually honest people on both sides accept the world is indeed warming at a fast pace. Also glad we all except the importance of peer review.

    Personally, I’m not surprised an honest team has found findings similar results to previous efforts, but that’s because I always suspected many of the “not really warming arguments” were overblown. However, if those arguments were genuine, I would expect a different result, even with the same raw data. There’s quite a difference between having the same raw dataset and having the same cleaned up dataset.

    For example, doing things like a lot more testing around the difference between urban and rural stations, in case of the urban heat island effect, could cause much more of a downwards weight on the urban numbers, which could change trends if it was a genuinely big bias on previous results.

  • Sunil Prasannan

    Why do we need this extra tier of government called the EU, with the necessary MEPs and bureaucrats? Why do we need as many as 736 MEPs (Europe-wide)? India with a population of more than 1 billion gets by with only 545 MPs in her federal parliament.

  • Anonymous

    You mistake pragmatism for ardent europhiles.

  • http://tomknoxbooks.com SeanT

    I’d go further.

    The Tory party is also a profoundly eurosceptic party leading a MUCH more eurosceptic country, which is itself confronted by a fragmenting, unnerved, and chaotic European Union – not the sensible and affluent Common Market we joined in the 70s.

    Moreover, we now have a Guaranteed Referendum, by law, on any new EU Treaty.

    Eurogeddon ensures there will be a New Treaty within a few years, maybe sooner. Then the UK will finally have a vote. I am pretty sure it will be No, unless the europhiles suddenly sprout a pair, and play shit or bust, and make it IN/OUT.

    But then they run the very serious risk of an OUT.

  • Anonymous

    “led by ardent europhiles…” Can you present some fact based evidence of that somewhat OTT statement?

  • Socrates

    It should be pointed out that Labour’s constant crowing about Cameron’s betrayal on the Lisbon Treaty has probably caused more action from eurosceptic MPs, and more anti-EU feeling in the public as a whole.

    Their hypocritical partisan attacks may well lead to the end to one of their main dreams of British EU intergration. Sweet irony.

  • Richard Nabavi

    UKIP are a joke party. Apart from Farage, who is a drunken but likeable raconteur, they have not a single plausible personality in their ranks. No one you would trust to run a tombola, let alone the UK.

    Yes, and why’s that?

  • Anonymous

    maybe the question should be why do we need 650 MPs ?

    They’ve given nearly all their powers away so what do we pay them for ? The theatre of the absurd springs to mind.

  • http://tomknoxbooks.com SeanT

    Because fringe parties do not prosper under FPTP. So no politician, who wants to be a serious player in London, will join UKIP – or the Greens, BNP, Respect, etc

    Note how the Nits only became a serious force when they got their OWN parliament, not elected by FPTP.

    Any other questions?

  • Richard Nabavi

    Yes, for five minutes.

  • Richard Nabavi

    Well, I think your answer confuses cause and effect. Anyway, another question:

    Why hasn’t a plausible Eurosceptic leader taken control of the Conservative Party and led it to a storming series of GE victories over the last four elections?

  • Sunil Prasannan
  • Socrates

    Apparently Romney has been positively consistent on his position on Iraq, relative to the FIVE positions he’s had on Libya!

    http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/10/where-is-mitt-romney-on-libya/

  • The Screaming Eagles

    Thanks Geoff.

  • Anonymous

    Of course it has nothing to do with the differing voting systems used in the two different elections does it? By my rough calculations based on a proportional system UKIP would have picked up 20 seats or thereabouts in the General Election and the Tories would have been even more reliant on the Libdems.

    Conservative 234
    Labour 188
    Liberal Democrat 150
    UKIP 20
    BNP 12
    SNP 11
    Green 6
    Plaid Cymru 4

    Perhaps thats why UKIP favoured AV (and of course if there were a proportional system guaranteeing them seats perhaps even more people would have voted UKIP)?

    UKIP suffer from exactly the same problem that the Libdems suffer from with their support widely dispersed across large parts of the country but moreso because they are still a relatively new party (formed 1993) and effectively younger than any other of the major parties. The Greens have been around in one form or another since the 1970′s and so have the BNP. The fact that UKIP out polled both of them at the GE suggests that UKIPs progress has been quite significant in comparison.

    Now I favour FPTP for the GE so I don’t have a problem with the scenario but I do think its wrong to underestimate the progress UKIP has made.

  • Peter the Punter

    OK. Good, I’m glad you are fine. Sorry you found the comment patronising, but I’d sooner that than risk being thought offensive.

    Nuff said.

  • Richard Tyndall

    The urban heat and station reliability papers do give me cause for concern. Whilst they seem fairly thorough superficially I am concerned by the fact that of 16,000 stations looked at world wide they apparently found a third of them were showing a drop in temperature over the period studied not a rise.

    If that is the case then I am confused as to how they can then say that the urban ones had not skewed the overall trends. I am also concerned by the fact that they say fully 27% of the stations they looked at were in urban settings, that they accept that urban heat island is a known effect and has been recognised for many years but then say that it has no overall effect on readings.

    Since they are reaching these conclusions by making use of statistical techniques that leave me baffled I would like to see a more detailed and coherent presentation than they have so far delivered in those papers.

    But the fact they are simultaneously publishing all their data on their website as they release the papers has to be a good sign as this will allow that independent repeatability that is so important in science.

  • http://www.croydonloony.co.uk JohnLoony

    When an exit poll suggested that the Green Party had got 15% of the votes in the European election in 1989, they issued a statement saying they were “cautiously ecstatic”.

  • Anonymous

    MrsB, I’m sure Malta’s LGA would welcome ex-Gibraltar licensees with open arms if they pulled the pin on net-gambling regulation. Although what government would consider cutting a major revenue stream in this economic climate?
    For those interested, here’s a summary of the major online gambling licensing jurisdictions http://www.livedealer.org/industry-organizations.htm