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Labour take 4 point lead in ComRes phone poll

And the Lib Dems move to 14 percent

The first ComRes phone poll since the end of September is out tonight for tomorrow’s Independent and shows several changes. Notably Labour are back in the lead and the Lib Dems are moving forward.

The 14% for Nick Clegg’s party is the best the party has seen from the firm since May and the second highest share in a year.

This will come as something of a relief to the yellows following that YouGov poll at the weekend that had them only one point ahead of UKIP.

The loser has been the Conservative party.

In other findings 56%, including 38% of Tory supporters, believe that the Tories are now more divided than the previous government, while 32 per cent of people disagree; 75% would like the opportunity to vote in a referendum on Britain’s relationship with the EU, while 17 per cent disagree and 55% believe Mr Cameron is out of touch with public opinion on Europe, while 33% disagree.

@MikeSmithsonPB

Scotsman

Why the gender gap on independence?

In recent weeks there’s been a lot of discussion about the gender gap in attitudes to the Conservatives and their leader, Mr. Cameron. Poll after poll has shown that men are more favourable than women.

Well Alex Salmond seems to have a similar challenge in Scotland over attitudes to independence – which will, of course, be subject to a referendum.

Men, it appears are much more enthusiastic than women – 41% to 27% in the latest YouGov polling north of the border.

As was highlighted by Professor John Curtice this difference has been seen before in other polling but now it has become particularly large.

He also pointed to the class difference on the issue observing that the SNP leader has to win over many middle-class voters. “Only 31 per cent of the former back independence, compared with 36 per cent of the working-class electorate.

My guess is that the former would be much more likely to vote in a referendum.

On the recent polling from ComRes highlighted by the SNP leader that had 49% backing independence Curtice observed: “Alas, what Salmond did not point out was that the ComRes poll was a Britain-wide survey that only interviewed 146 people north of the border.”

UPDATE: The poll also shows that 1 in 5 SNP Holyrood voters say they would vote NO to independence. Just 69% say they would vote YES.

@MikeSmithsonPB

Politico

Is another non-Romney contender biting the dust?

There’ve been sharpish moves on the Republican nominee betting markets overnight following allegations on Politico that at least two female employees had complained about inappropriate behavior by Herman Cain when he’d be running the National Restaurant Association in the mid-1990s.

The report says that the women complained of “sexually suggestive behavior by Cain that made them angry and uncomfortable”.

Cain’s campaign has attacked the reports but it’s hard to conclude other than this could be the end of his unlikely bid for the White House. At one stage Betfair had him at 6/1 – the last price traded was just on 19/1.

Interestingly there’s been almost no movement in the Mitt Romney price who the markets still rate as a 65% chance – a level that I regard as far too tight.

The rush to Cain over the past month had never been convincing and I had kept out – but I’m still uncertain about Romney. The fact that he’s there almost by default isn’t encouraging for someone priced so tight. One of the other contenders, ex-favourite Perry perhaps, might re-emerge.

The first real voting in the prolonged primary process is more than two months off and a lot can happen in the intervening period.

@MikeSmithsonPB

Have you ever switched your vote because of your betting?

James Forsyth has a nice political betting story in his Mail on Sunday column today. He writes:-

One Eurosceptic Tory had an unusual reason for abstaining in the vote on an EU referendum: he didn’t want to lose a bet. Convinced that the rebellion would fizzle out, he had made a wager with a fellow sceptic that fewer than 60 Tories would vote against the Government.

The deal was that, for every rebel over the magic number, he would have to pay his colleague £10 and vice versa. When he walked down to the division lobbies last Monday night, he was taken aback by how many Tory MPs were defying the whips. He calculated that he must be a couple of hundred quid down and decided to abstain.

‘I was buggered if I was going to give him another tenner,’ he joked…”

Forsyth doesn’t name the MP but notes that his behaviour “adds a whole new meaning to the phrase ‘taking a gamble on Britain’s future’.”

As a punter I sympathise but I don’t think I’ve allowed my betting position to influence my voting on anything.

@MikeSmithsonPB