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Miliband now slips BELOW Clegg in ICM’s leader ratings

September 24th, 2011

Can Ed turn thing round at his conference?

As well as the voting intention figures in the latest ICM for the Guardian there are the firm’s leadership ratings which ask the question of whether the PM/leaders/etc are doing a good or bad job. Cameron sees a substantial boost but the biggest winner in terms of change is Nick Clegg.

As we saw in the previous thread the voting intention figures had the Lib Dems down three points which must have been a real disappointment given that the survey coincided with the party’s annual conference when they were getting a lot of media coverage.

But the position in the leader ratings, however, is totally different with Clegg seeing a substantial improvement – a net 13% – on last July and, on every figure, now doing better than Ed Miliband.

Clegg has higher positives and smaller negatives than Ed which is even the more remarkable given Labour’s return to a lead on voting intention from the pollster.

Other findings are not good for Miliband. Only 28% of of those sampled agreed thought that he had the right qualities to become PM. Amongst Labour’s own supporters only 51% agreed. To another question on whether Miliband was the right leader for the Labour party just 30% agreed. Amongst Labour voters the proportion was only 49%.

The only consolation in the ICM numbers for Miliband is that he’s doing better than shadow chancellor Ed Balls – who has not previously been included in the survey. Just 27% say he is doing a good job and 45% bad.

This is not good for the Labour leader on the first anniversary of his election and the start of his party conference.

My main caveat, as I repeat every year at this time. is that polling in late September and early October can get distorted by the party conferences.

@MikeSmithsonPB




  • Anonymous

    In relation to education the very best and most able should work just as hard at getting the best out of themselves as the less able.
    In my view ‘elitism’ means that the least able should not hold back the best. It does not mean penalising the least able – and it does not mean the most able getting some kind of preference and/or an easy ride.

  • firstlight40

    DavidL,
    the two objects can be moving at 0.75c each relative to an outside observer, but to each other they are moving at no more than 1.0c, theory of special relativity is exactly that – perception is relative depending on the position of the observer. Spooky but true, unfortunately human perception is used to Newtonian mechanics where what you say works, at close to lightspeed really weird (to human perception) stuff happens

  • Anonymous

    Jim Murphy, Fitlass, is a class act and would make a good Labour leader. Also he might help the party cling on to more seats in Scotland.

  • Anonymous

    To join the conversation.

    There’s this thing called the Doppler effect where, with sound, an object coming towards you making a sound, sounds higher and an object moving away sounds lower. This is seen with a train whistle, or (for MD’s benefit) the nyoooooom of F1.

    With light, the same happens but the light gets red or blue shifted as the wavelength this lengthened (moving away) or shortened (moving towards). This effect limits the observable size of the universe as the shortest wavelengths get red shifted to nowt at the limit of observation (expanding universe).

    To come to your example, the two vehicle wouldn’t see each other as the wavelengths would be dopplered out. I think I’ve got that right :-)

  • Anonymous

    mr evershed – the stationary clock (stuck in the bottom of earth’s gravity well) is ‘ticking’ faster than to one that is moving. time is slower for a moving object compared with a stationary object.

    that is why when two object approach each other at say three quarters the speed of light the closing speed is not viewed as 1.5 times the speed of light.

    But I should add that I am a just bloke stuck sat on a couch and sadly time is passing all too quickly.

  • http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/ Morris Dancer

    297, Mr. Slackbladder, I agree. 1.45 were not good odds, especially given the uncertainty over true pace in P3. I was also looking at backing Sutil for Q3, but decided against that (not much money available) and laying Webber for top 3 (glad I didn’t do that).

    So, I made a tiny sum backing Button to be top 3, and lost a little by hedging (can’t complain though as it was an utter fluke on my part).

  • Anonymous

    F1 – looks like motorised cage fighting too me out there. Still the drivers are over 18 – thats something.

  • http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/ Morris Dancer

    Betting Post

    Webber to win at 9.6.

    I really didn’t anticipate making such a bet/tip, but almost 9/1 for a second place chap to win is madness. If Vettel starts poorly (admittedly Webber’s done that more of late) or has a mechanical failure, or makes a small error and hits the wall, or gets stuck behind traffic post pit-stop, or has a slow pit stop Webber could easily win.

    Set up a lay at 3.

  • Anonymous

    yes – it seems Balls is caged in here. He is the dark Svengali figure who is responsible for all of Labours economic mess. And he is their Shadow Chancellor

  • http://liberaltaxi.blogspot.com/ corporeal

    If anybody says he can think about quantum physics without getting giddy, that only shows he has not understood the first thing about them.
    Niels Bohr

  • DavidL

    Weird indeed. If an object is coming towards you at the speed of light you would not be able to see it or register it as any light or other emanation it radiated would be moving at the same speed as the object rendering it invisible. That, I think, is the extreme end of Blue Rog’s doppler effect which I understand is used to work out how fast something is coming towards us or away from us.

    I recall an Iain Banks story when he hypothesised the most alert planetary defences might be able to say “What the f” before oblivion.

    Is the answer therefore not that that the spaceships are moving at c relative to each other but that they do not exist for each other?

    This is at serious risk of being put into the “too hard” pile.

  • Plato

    For all those musing about neutrinos and time travel – here is incontrovertible evidence.

    http://yfrog.com/nvzsssfj

  • firstlight40

    Nothing apart from massless particles can move at the speed of light, so there would be a warning before the item hit – but Iain Banks was right the warning might be very short..

    Not read in detail on how they measured the distance between the two points in the neutrino expt. but assume they have taken the curvature of the earth into account..

  • jascow

    Two spaceships moving at 0.75c relative to C in opposite directions
    0.75c <—- A .. .. B —-> 0.75c

    Observer on earth, C.

    Newtonian mechanics:
    Person C sees the distance between A and B increasing at 1.5c
    Measuring A/B gives a velocity of +/- 0.75c

    Someone stationary with respect to A cannot see B because it’s moving away at 1.5c, so the light is moving away from you at 0.5c. Assuming it reached this speed instantaneously and started emitting light, the light will never reach you because it’s moving away from you at 0.5c. Vice versa for someone on B.

    Special relativity:
    Person C sees the distance between A and B increasing at 1.5c
    Measuring A/B gives a velocity of +/- 0.75c

    However, if someone on A measures the velocity of B (and vice versa) they don’t get 1.5c, they get something else given by the velocity addition formula derived in any undergraduate relativity course:

    (0.75 + 0.75)/(1 + (0.75*0.75)) = 0.96c

    Additionally if B were to shine a light in A’s direction they’d see it and measure its velocity to be exactly 1c.

    Totally non intuitive but tested and working, so far.

  • Anonymous

    may be he wants a quiet life maybe he thinks he has done his bit. may be he will wait until he is drafted in 2016.

  • jascow

    And yeah there are two ways of looking at the effect of moving faster. One is to shove it all into a number multiplying the total energy of the body (the gamma factor), this is the way I learnt it, the other is to say that the mass has increased.

    So yeah the kinetic energy of a body is different in different reference frames. Very, very weird.

    Ehem, this has nothing to do with politics ^_^

  • DavidL

    I may be wrong (again) but I don’t think neutrinos worry too much about things like the earth. They pass through unobstructed on a sub atomic level.

    I am just going to have to take jascow’s word on this.

  • Anonymous

    the public may or may not be rejecting all sorts of things, but it does not mean they are right.

    And the public generally have eyes to see and can see the mess that debt has put greece in.
    The world has a debt problem. Its hard to see how it overcomes that by borrowing more.

    Of course the govt have a growth strategy it was published several months ago. We find the telegraph campaigning against a key party of it.

  • http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/ Morris Dancer

    As we’re interested in science today, why not read Laurie Penny’s climate change blogpost?:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/laurie-penny/2011/09/climate-change-world

  • firstlight40

    If you measure the distance between 2 points on the earth’s surface the distance between the same points with both down a vertical hole, the earth’s curvature reduces the straight line distance (which neutrinos take) between the two points, also true if one point is down a hole and the other is on the earth’s surface

  • Plato

    Ohhh ohh “several trillion”

    DT: Euro leaders planning version of #Geithner plan to leverage EFSF firepower to several Trn euro to deal with Greek default fallout

    French banks to be substantially recapitalised.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8786665/Multi-trillion-grand-plan-to-save-the-eurozone-is-being-prepared.html

  • firstlight40

    good luck selling that to the germans

  • Anonymous

    Mike, been trying to point out what a class act Jim Murphy is, and what a good leader he would be for Labour on here for years. :D

  • firstlight40

    I love the nsidc.org website, really easy to find arctic ice maps and how bad it is – try looking for the antarctic ice maps – which show ice has actually gone up – very hard to find.
    I believe the arctic ice situation is related to man made activity but the proponents of global warming really don’t help themselves when they pull stunts like that

  • http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/ Morris Dancer
  • jascow

    I read some of their PDF yesterday, they measured the exact distance of the neutrino path using some kind of synchronised GPS contraption to a very high accuracy (hundreds of thousands of metres with an error of 0.20 metres).

  • http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/ Morris Dancer

    327, indeed, Mr. 40. The holier-than-thou and misleading nature of many pro-warming (as it were) persons is one of the reasons I became so sceptical about their claims.

  • Anonymous

    It becomes difficult to travel close top the speed of light because you add mass the faster you go and need ever increasing amounts of energy to travel faster.

    Space is not empty ‘space’. Its ‘space-time’

  • http://twitter.com/TheTapBlog Tapestry

    Max, is the crackpot theory the existence of HAARP?
    I refer you to PMQ’s 2002

    21 Oct 2002

    Parliamentary Questions
    HAARP Programme

    Paul Flynn: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence what assessment has been made of the HAARP programme; and what contribution Britain is making to it. [75022]

    Dr. Moonie: The Ministry of Defence is fully aware of the HAARP project. However the MOD has made no specific assessment of the project for defence purposes nor has it contributed towards it.

    So it exists.

  • Roger

    I am so non plussed by Ed M that it’s depressing. I cant remember voting for a party other than Labour-or perhaps lib/dem since I started voting but I’d struggle to vote for Ed. Just one cliche after another.

    I ask all Labour members and leadership voters ‘What were you thinking about?’ you have destroyed Labour’s chances against one of the flimsiest governments I can remember

  • Richard Tyndall

    LOL. I am afraid you cannot use the word ‘science
    in the same sentence as a link to that utter drivel. I am simultaneously glad that the lefties are so utterly thick and saddened that that is the level of scientific illiteracy amongst supposedly educated people.

  • Anonymous

    Twitter
    GlenysThornton Glenys Thornton
    by JohnRentoul
    Honorary Sister Ed Milliband listening to the debate before addressing Women’s conference. He got a great welcome.

    Edit : Sorry, but this one made me laugh. I now have this vision of Ed Miliband appearing in drag at a feminist rally.

  • Richard Tyndall

    Of course it exists Tap. It just has nothing to do with the garbage you continue to post on here.

  • http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/ Morris Dancer

    334, was he wearing a skirt or trouser suit, Miss Fitalass? :p

  • jascow

    I love how the party conferences are going on with people like Ed Miliband wittering about non-existant cuts while the Eurozone debt crisis deepens and we’re now hearing figures in the TRILLIONS.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8786665/Multi-trillion-grand-plan-to-save-the-eurozone-is-being-prepared.html

  • firstlight40

    yep, you can get very accurate gps signals, we do F1 simulator track models (keeping Morris Dancer interested) using LIDAR and higrade differential gps, but gps does not work down a hole which makes me wonder if they messed up their sums…

  • firstlight40

    I’m going to love PMQ’s when Cameron asks Ed if he is in touch with his feminine side…

  • Anonymous

    So was Nicholas Ridley correct after all and should he be given a posthumous pardon?

  • Moniker of Monza

    Honorary Sister Ed Milliband listening to the debate before addressing Women’s conference. He got a great welcome.

    Shouldn’t the final sentence be ; ” She got a great welcome. “

  • Anonymous

    Twitter
    JohnRentoul John Rentoul
    Honorary sister Ed Miliband: “Labour is back as a party of them”? This is not going well bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

  • jascow

    Obviously that’s how they’re sterilising people.

    Or was it vaccines?

    David Cameron’s International Aid spending on vaccines – a secret plan to sterilise Africa.

    I wish we could still use the :roll: smiley…

  • Anonymous

    ‘I’m going to love PMQ’s when Cameron asks Ed if he is in touch with his feminine side…’

    Baldwin should suggest that Miliband launches into ‘So Macho’ rather than into ‘Sisters are doing it for themselves’.

  • Anonymous

    No I just find such a view ironic coming from someone of the left.

    Hypocrisy thy name is Labour

  • Jack W

    Not too sure what all the fuss about these neutrinos is about. I’m not Einstein clearly but I’ve come across a number of things faster than the speed of light. My top five are :

    1. Alex Ferguson chewing gum.
    2. Chris Huhne in any horseless carriage.
    3. SeanT in any Bangkok bordello.
    4. LibDem barcharts produced in a parliamentary by-election.
    5. Eric Pickles reading a menu.

  • Anonymous

    Jack W I’m afraid you have overlooked the fastest phenomena of them all (perhaps it’s even too fast for your eagle-eyes

    1. A Labour Minister wasting taxpayer’s money

  • http://twitter.com/TheTapBlog Tapestry
  • paul barker

    “We can throw stones at paper giants”

    Rather lovely that.

  • Anonymous

    And yet again the political and financial establishments are trying to sort out a solvency problem with extra liquidity.

    The reasons for the economic problems are based on inbalances between wealth creation and wealth consumption, a collapse in productivity growth and massive malinvestment.

    Simply giving banks another few hundred billion isn’t going to sort out any of those problems.

  • http://twitter.com/TheTapBlog Tapestry

    KADUNA, Nigeria, March 11, 2004 (LifeSiteNews.com) – A UNICEF campaign to vaccinate Nigeria’s youth against polio may have been a front for sterilizing the nation. Dr. Haruna Kaita, a pharmaceutical scientist and Dean of the Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences of Ahmadu Bello University in Zaria, took samples of the vaccine to labs in India for analysis.

    Using WHO-recommended technologies like Gas Chromatography (GC) and Radio-Immuno assay, Dr. Kaita, upon analysis, found evidence of serious contamination. “Some of the things we discovered in the vaccines are harmful, toxic; some have direct effects on the human reproductive system,” he said in an interview with Kaduna’s Weekly Trust. “I and some other professional colleagues who are Indians who were in the Lab could not believe the discovery,” he said

  • Neil

    I love that tap’s post was in green… ;)

  • Jack W

    No no …. a Labour minister wasting money is the base that all other speed is measured against …. nothing has ever come close …. nothing !!

  • jascow

    Indeed. We’ve been paying ourselves too much for over a decade. Simple as that.

    Except the politicians can’t say that.

  • http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/ Morris Dancer

    F1: Webber now out to 10.5.

    Was interested in the possibility of Alonso getting a podium, but just over evens is a little short. Tomorrow I’ll check the weather forecasts again and see if rain seems likely.

  • glw

    From what I’ve read so far I will be surprised if it is an error with the clocks or surveyed positions. They do seem to have done a very thorough job of determining the locations and accounting for timing errors.

    They are likely to be wrong, but there’s no reason to think that they have made a simple or obvious mistake.

    Even finding the source of the error is likely to be fruitful for science.

  • JonathanD

    There was a good Mathew Parris comment in the Times today which could be summed up as: the current crash wasn’t caused by a failure of free market capitalism, the crash is capitalism telling us that we are trying to live beyond our means while producing too little.

  • Plato

    Simply giving banks another few hundred billion trillion isn’t going to sort out any of those problems.

    There fixed that for you.

  • Scott P

    “We can all agree” that Ed’s biggest task this week is to make some headway on the “Labour economic credibility deficit”

    So, who’s first up?

    Harriet Harman accuses the Coalition Government of ‘squeezing the life out of the economy’.

    Really?

    The coalition are worried about debt. Are there any events occurring anywhere in the World that might give some pointers as to the dangers of debt?

    G20 ministers are preparing for Greece to default on its debts

    @journodave: RT @jeremywarnerUK: #IMF sources: French banks to be substantially recapitalised ahead of Greek default

    Oh…

  • Anonymous

    Roger asked “I ask all Labour members and leadership voters ‘What were you thinking about?’ you have destroyed Labour’s chances against one of the flimsiest governments I can remember

    The voters who made the difference in the vote – the union members – would respond with “well the only election advice I had with my ballot paper was to vote for EdM … so I did”.

  • Plato

    It is an excellent piece – it read like a stream of consciousness that articulated real frustration at the titting about and trying to blame everyone/everything else.

    His mega-pop at Anatole Kaletsky was most Oh La La! and so accurate.

  • Scott P

    The Labour conference has started badly for Ed Miliband, with David Blunkett criticising the party for allowing the Tories to define the national economic debate. Blunkett was concurring with shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander’s view that the Tories had been successful in “framing a public language that made more sense of the economic crisis”. To be fair to Miliband, he made the same point in his recent interview with the New Statesman, but he is yet to provide a coherent or credible alternative to the government’s policies.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/7264103/searching-for-an-alternative.thtml

  • Anonymous

    1) I’ve never voted Labour, so where is the irony? 2-dimensional politics as usual on here.

    2) Play the ball, not the man. No-one’s actually contradicted or engaged with the point I’ve made, shame.

  • glw

    The Labour Party has no alternative, and everything they do say is wrong.

    God knows why anyone supports them.

  • Anonymous

    That a wiser person once said “you cant buck the market”.

  • Anonymous

    Ed Miliband has incredibly peculiar mannerisms. He never looks very assured, he always fidgets and moves from side to side as he speaks. I know this is a very superficial criticism, but it makes him look quite shifty IMHO.

    It’s not quite as bad as the Gordon Brown Expenses Video Disaster, but at times it’s getting there.

  • Scott P

    German and French authorities have begun work on a three-pronged strategy behind the scenes amid escalating fears that the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis is spiralling out of control.

    Their aim is to build a “firebreak” around Greece, Portugal and Ireland to prevent the crisis spreading to Italy and Spain, countries considered “too big to bail”.

    According to sources, progress has been made at the G20 meeting in Washington, where global leaders piled pressure on the eurozone to fix its problems before plunging the world back into recession. In a G20 communique issued on Friday, the world’s leading economies set themselves a six-week deadline to resolve the crisis – to unveil a solution by the G20 summit in Cannes on November 4.

    Sources said the plan would have to be released as a whole, as the elements would not work in isolation.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8786665/Multi-trillion-grand-plan-to-save-the-eurozone-is-being-prepared.html

  • Scott P

    the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis is spiralling out of control.

    Labour’s answer?

    More debt.

    Ed should publicly flog the other Ed while covering his head in ashes (the ashes of a ceremonial cremation of his blank sheet of paper perhaps)

  • Scott P

    Paging Ed and anyone else in the Labour party who got us in this mess !!!

    Delegates at the IMF meeting in Washington claimed that there had been “a visible shift in pace and mood” to address sovereign debt problems, particularly in the eurozone.

    George Osborne goes mainstream…

  • Anonymous

    Never voted Labour? Then what are you?

    As for playing the ball. This is not a game of football dontcha know….

  • Anonymous

    ‘Labour’s answer?’

    Ed Milband soundbite…..

    1)Petty and arrogant partisan demand that Cameron bring forward the meeting of Leaders.

    2)Single two word response to looming economic disaster – ‘Get a grip’

    Its at moments like this you really understand why the last Labour government left the UK as such an economic basket case by the end of their tenure. This is a Labour Leader and politician who worked closely with Gordon Brown and Ed Balls at the Treasury, and that is all he had to offer in response yesterday?

  • Anonymous

    Shocking. Glacier melt all the time, they grow and they shink, they sometimes do it over long periods of time. To align this with climate change, and to show it as evidence that is indisputable is rather silly.

    She sees what she wants to see, she interprets what she wants to interpret.

  • glw

    That’s a good point.

    If Miliband and Balls are half as good as their supporters claim, then they ought to be able to say something sensible or useful. After all they were at ground zero during Labour’s bountiful reign, so they more than most others ought to be up to the job. That they are incapable of articulating alternatives, offering useful analysis, and frankly even sounding like they know what they are talking about, suggests that their supporters are wrong about the abilities of EM and EB.

  • Anonymous

    new thread

  • http://twitter.com/TheTapBlog Tapestry

    That’s right for businesses owned by the elite, basically all large corporations that fear competition from smaller businesses trying to innovate. That’s why they have ruinous levels of regulation, to kill off potential competition. The consumer suffers. Big business gets away with extortionate prices selling total crap.

  • http://twitter.com/TheTapBlog Tapestry

    IDS had no support in the media. Large corporations love the EU and own the media. Only europhiles can ever win elections. Gaitskell and John Smith were CIAed with heart attack potions, to make way for Wilson and
    Blair, who were EU stooges, as was Brown.

    IDS was got rid of by the media and a small majority of his own MPs who pulled up the white flag. Thatcher was axed when she realised she was a eurosceptic and didn’t want to agree to Maastricht. Somehow she survived the Brighton bomb, while Airey Neave, her right hand man, wasn’t so lucky.

    Cameron acted eurosceptic to get elected, but is clearly totally sold out to the EU, and the wars a was Blair.

  • http://twitter.com/TheTapBlog Tapestry

    Osborne does what he’s told to do. He was offered free money by the Rothschilds – known to media as Foundation X – offering interest free billions to build infrastructure across Britain. But he refused it.

    That suggests he’s more in cahoots with the United Nations programme to bring the world’s free economies to an end, private property and national sovereignty as is Cameron. As members of the elite they would be spared, of course, and their families. But the rest of us can go down the plughole for all he cares.

    The Rothschilds live in Britain, Evelyn and Jacob, and they clearly don’t want the inconvenience of a squalid economic collapse. But their efforts to save Britain were sent packing. We are now racing to bankruptcy.

  • http://twitter.com/TheTapBlog Tapestry

    The purpose of socialism is the dumbing down and impoverishment of society, leaving the elite that imposes it in complete mastery. The elites hate capitalism as others are able to come up and compete with them – the very last thing they want. Wall St funded the Russian Revolution, Stalin’s victory in WW2, and the ending of Britain’s Empire, and has sat back while socialism and communism has taken over the world.

  • http://twitter.com/TheTapBlog Tapestry

    ‘The West has a debt problem’

    to who are the debts owed?

    the central bankers.

    they see no problem with the debts.

    The Rothschilds’ wealth is expressed in hundreds of trillions of $$$.

    their biggest business is lending to governments, even issuing money. they like wars as wars are when countries get most into debt and pay higher interest.

    if any politician tries to stop the debt system and issue their own money, they don’t live. it is a system based on assassination….Kennedy, Saddam Hussein, Gaddafi to name just three victims.

  • Anonymous

    Mike S I was ‘discarded at the age of 11′ and think grammars and sec mods are still a good idea as long as there is no ‘sink’ mentality in running the latter which should cater for all talents and there should be inter-transferability at 13 and 16.

    I transferred at 16 thanks to Tory councillors.