ICM and MORI – spot the difference
Monday, May 30th, 2011
Archive for May, 2011
ICM and MORI – spot the difference
Monday, May 30th, 2011
Can Labour open up the Tory EU wounds?
Monday, May 30th, 2011
Could the blues be vulnerable on the bail-out costs?
Patrick Wintour in the Guardian has an interesting piece about a Labour plan to “to work with Eurosceptic Tories to reduce the size of UK contributions to the bailout of troubled eurozone nations and to cut the timescale of UK liability.”
He writes: “Labour is weighing up an alliance with increasingly fractious Tory Eurosceptics over two specific issues likely to return to the Commons in the next few months – a move that could threaten the government’s Commons majority on some key votes or, at the very least, politically embarrass the chancellor, George Osborne.
The first is the degree to which the commission is disproportionately drawing on the European Financial Stability Mechanism (EFSM), to which Britain makes contributions…The second could build on anger at the failure of the coalition government to do more to demand the swift introduction of a permanent bailout mechanism from which Britain would be excluded…”
Politically this seems to be a sound strategy for Labour because the one big issue that Cameron & co have managed to sweep under the carpet in the coalition’s first year has been Britain’s relationship with the EU.
The plan sounds like a re-run of the hugely effective Labour tactics during the Tory 92-97 government. Then issue after issue was put forward by Labour in order to encourage Tory splits and put pressure on John Major.
Will that work again in 2011? It could do and looks like smart opposition.
Mike Smithson
Could the blues be vulnerable on the bail-out costs?
Patrick Wintour in the Guardian has an interesting piece about a Labour plan to “to work with Eurosceptic Tories to reduce the size of UK contributions to the bailout of troubled eurozone nations and to cut the timescale of UK liability.”
He writes: “Labour is weighing up an alliance with increasingly fractious Tory Eurosceptics over two specific issues likely to return to the Commons in the next few months – a move that could threaten the government’s Commons majority on some key votes or, at the very least, politically embarrass the chancellor, George Osborne.
The first is the degree to which the commission is disproportionately drawing on the European Financial Stability Mechanism (EFSM), to which Britain makes contributions…The second could build on anger at the failure of the coalition government to do more to demand the swift introduction of a permanent bailout mechanism from which Britain would be excluded…”
Politically this seems to be a sound strategy for Labour because the one big issue that Cameron & co have managed to sweep under the carpet in the coalition’s first year has been Britain’s relationship with the EU.
The plan sounds like a re-run of the hugely effective Labour tactics during the Tory 92-97 government. Then issue after issue was put forward by Labour in order to encourage Tory splits and put pressure on John Major.
Will that work again in 2011? It could do and looks like smart opposition.
Mike Smithson
Could Labour’s polling position just evaporate?
Sunday, May 29th, 2011
Ten weeks in Scottish politics – what are the lessons?
I’ve been meaning to put up this chart for some time because I’m sure that the polling experience leading up to the Holyrood election on May 5th will be referred to time and time again.
This shows the regional list where the changes were most pronounced. From a position just ten weeks before election day where Labour had a 14 point lead over the SNP voters on the day gave Salmond’s party an 18 point margin over Labour.
In terms of changes and turnarounds I don’t think that there is a precedent. This was spectacular in the extreme.
Even in the final forty-eight hours big movements seemed to be taking place. YouGov’s eve of voting poll had an SNP lead of just three points and it looked as though the gap was narrowing. As it turned out the outcome was 44 to 26.
Before people conclude that this was YouGov the only ICM poll of the campaign – on March 18th – had the SNP on 34% to Labour 37% which was not dramatically different from the online pollster’s survey three days earlier.
Something dramatic happened in Scotland in those weeks before the election giving the lie, I’d suggest, to those who say that campaigns don’t matter.
Mike Smithson
Ten weeks in Scottish politics – what are the lessons?
I’ve been meaning to put up this chart for some time because I’m sure that the polling experience leading up to the Holyrood election on May 5th will be referred to time and time again.
This shows the regional list where the changes were most pronounced. From a position just ten weeks before election day where Labour had a 14 point lead over the SNP voters on the day gave Salmond’s party an 18 point margin over Labour.
In terms of changes and turnarounds I don’t think that there is a precedent. This was spectacular in the extreme.
Even in the final forty-eight hours big movements seemed to be taking place. YouGov’s eve of voting poll had an SNP lead of just three points and it looked as though the gap was narrowing. As it turned out the outcome was 44 to 26.
Before people conclude that this was YouGov the only ICM poll of the campaign – on March 18th – had the SNP on 34% to Labour 37% which was not dramatically different from the online pollster’s survey three days earlier.
Something dramatic happened in Scotland in those weeks before the election giving the lie, I’d suggest, to those who say that campaigns don’t matter.
Mike Smithson
Next to exit the cabinet betting? BUY Lansley – SELL Huhne
Sunday, May 29th, 2011
Extracts from the Sundays
The Indy on Sunday: “Chris Huhne, the Energy and Climate Change Secretary, has dominated the headlines for three weeks now. The intensity of media interest is justified by the seriousness of the allegations against him. It is not so much the matter of an eight-year-old alleged speeding offence. It is the allegation that he asked someone else to take his penalty points, which would be an attempt to pervert the course of justice. And there is his current denial, which, if proved false, would be the most damaging. As we go to press, it looks as if Mr Huhne may survive, if only because of the impossibility of proving wrongdoing beyond reasonable doubt”
Patrick Hennessy – Sunday Telegraph: “The Sunday Telegraph has learned that the package of changes to the Health and Social Care Bill is likely to be finalised in around three weeks’ time after a bruising internal battle between Mr Cameron, Mr Lansley and Nick Clegg. Senior figures at 10 Downing Street have begun to “war game” Mr Lansley’s departure on the ground that his Bill will be so radically different from its original state that he no longer has the credibility to drive it through…. A fellow Conservative minister said last night: “I have immense personal sympathy for Andrew but if the Bill becomes something totally different from his original proposals then he will simply not have the credibility to lead the reforms.…”
The Observer: “The health secretary, Andrew Lansley, has been forced into a major U-turn on funding for public health campaigns, after evidence emerged that the spending freeze had cost lives….”
Matthew D’Ancona Sunday Telegraph: “As for Lansley, he has good reason to feel aggrieved and betrayed. His life’s work is being dismantled before his very eyes. Support that was promised is being withdrawn. He is being deserted in the most ruthless fashion. Number 10 accepts that he may well resign. Whether or not he does so, the final insult is the unambiguous signal he has already been sent by his most senior colleagues: that his departure, however regrettable, is a price worth paying. Anything – anything – to make this political horror-show go away.”
Mail on Sunday: “In a statement, a spokesman for Essex Police said: ‘We can confirm we have spoken to two key people on Tuesday at a police station in Essex and in London. We don’t expect a major update on this case for up to two weeks.’ Essex Police declined to comment further.”
Ladbrokes have eased the Huhne next to exit price to 4/6 while Lansley is now the 7/1 second favourite. They both might go but the critical element is the timing and here the pressure seems to be off Huhne and onto Lansley.
Mike Smithson
Extracts from the Sundays
The Indy on Sunday: “Chris Huhne, the Energy and Climate Change Secretary, has dominated the headlines for three weeks now. The intensity of media interest is justified by the seriousness of the allegations against him. It is not so much the matter of an eight-year-old alleged speeding offence. It is the allegation that he asked someone else to take his penalty points, which would be an attempt to pervert the course of justice. And there is his current denial, which, if proved false, would be the most damaging. As we go to press, it looks as if Mr Huhne may survive, if only because of the impossibility of proving wrongdoing beyond reasonable doubt”
Patrick Hennessy – Sunday Telegraph: “The Sunday Telegraph has learned that the package of changes to the Health and Social Care Bill is likely to be finalised in around three weeks’ time after a bruising internal battle between Mr Cameron, Mr Lansley and Nick Clegg. Senior figures at 10 Downing Street have begun to “war game” Mr Lansley’s departure on the ground that his Bill will be so radically different from its original state that he no longer has the credibility to drive it through…. A fellow Conservative minister said last night: “I have immense personal sympathy for Andrew but if the Bill becomes something totally different from his original proposals then he will simply not have the credibility to lead the reforms.…”
The Observer: “The health secretary, Andrew Lansley, has been forced into a major U-turn on funding for public health campaigns, after evidence emerged that the spending freeze had cost lives….”
Matthew D’Ancona Sunday Telegraph: “As for Lansley, he has good reason to feel aggrieved and betrayed. His life’s work is being dismantled before his very eyes. Support that was promised is being withdrawn. He is being deserted in the most ruthless fashion. Number 10 accepts that he may well resign. Whether or not he does so, the final insult is the unambiguous signal he has already been sent by his most senior colleagues: that his departure, however regrettable, is a price worth paying. Anything – anything – to make this political horror-show go away.”
Mail on Sunday: “In a statement, a spokesman for Essex Police said: ‘We can confirm we have spoken to two key people on Tuesday at a police station in Essex and in London. We don’t expect a major update on this case for up to two weeks.’ Essex Police declined to comment further.”
Ladbrokes have eased the Huhne next to exit price to 4/6 while Lansley is now the 7/1 second favourite. They both might go but the critical element is the timing and here the pressure seems to be off Huhne and onto Lansley.