The latest ComRes phone poll for The Independent has Labour and the Tories level pegging on 37% which is the first tme since October 2010 that the red team has not been in the lead.

This is only the second telephone survey since the May 5th elections and comes from the pollster that came in a respectable second place with its final AV poll.

The LDs are down three to 12 while support for other parties, including the SNP, UKIP and Greens, is up by two points 14 per cent.

Although Labour are not down in this survey – the gap has closed because the Tories are up – the fact that the lead has gone will create some nervousness at Miliband Towers. Back in January the pollster had Labour with a nine point lead.

ComRes also asked a series of questions over the super-injunction controversy:

“Judges have been too willing to grant injunctions to enable the rich and famous to protect their private lives.” 70 per cent agreed, 25 per cent disagreed.

“Celebrities and sports stars owe their lifestyle to their public profile so they should not complain about intrusion into their private lives.” 65 per cent agreed, 30 per cent disagreed.

“The Government should ensure greater regulation of the internet and social media like twitter to protect people’s rights to privacy.” 54 per cent agreed, 40 per cent disagreed.

“MPs and Peers who have used parliamentary privilege to reveal super-injunctions were right to do so.” 44 per cent agreed, 48 per cent disagreed

ComRes have two polling series – one, like tonight’s, is carried out by phone – the other is done online. My comparisons and the chart above are with previous phone polls.

UPDATE: The latest YouGov daily poll has a very different picture – CON 37%: LAB 42%: LD 9%. In only one survey since early December has the pollster had Labour below 40%. In the same period ICM, the pollster that got the AV referendum right to within 0.1%, has not had Labour out of the 30s.

Mike Smithson

..a cartoon about FIFA from Marf

Is Huhne going to “be toast” or not?

The first big Chris Huhne market, whether the LD energy secretary will still have his cabinet place by the end of the month, will be resolved at midnight and unless there’s something dramatic during the day it’s hard now to see those who gambled that he’d be out winning. On top of that there’s been the betting on which minster will be next out of the cabinet which has fluctuated harply.

A lot of this has been driven by the dozens of posts on Guido’s with a key source, as above, being the political editor of Newsnight Michael Crick.

The BBC man’s last postings were on Friday night and touched on one key issue could be central to Huhne’s future – the extent to which the energy secretary’s estranged wife co-operate with the police.

Crick reported then “Contrary to a report on the front page of today’s Daily Telegraph, Chris Huhne’s estranged wife Vicky Pryce is co-operating with Essex police, according to a reliable source.

Essex police this week interviewed both the energy secretary and Vicky Pryce over allegations that Huhne got his wife to take the points for a speeding offence on the M11 in March 2003.

Under the headline “Huhne’s ex-wife refuses to confirm points claim”, the Telegraph today said Pryce had refused to tell the police in her interview whether or not she took points for the offence.

I hear that Vicky Pryce is “irritated” by the Telegraph report, and that “it’s rubbish that she’s not co-operating.”

At the heart of this is whether there’s evidence to prove “beyond reasonable doubt” that Huhne did as is alleged eight years ago. If the main evidence available to prosecutors is the time at which his wife left a dinner in London on the night in question in 2003 then it’s harder seeing how a case could succeed.

If the Crick version of the police interview is correct then Huhne’s future looks less secure.

Mike Smithson

Senior aides say this is what they want

According to Tim Montgomerie at Con Home there’s a report by Rachel Sylvester in tomorrow’s Times that says that aides to Cameron and senior Tory ministers want the LDs to stay in government even if the Conservatives win a majority at the next election.

Rachel Sylvester apparently says that there’s a view that Lib Dems are essential to ensure any Tory government isn’t held to ransom by “unreconstructed elements” amongst the blues.

She’s reported as writing: “For the Tory modernisers, the Lib Dems are the ideal weapon to ward off the enemy within… The Prime Minister is pleased to have political cover for keeping the 50p top rate of tax, abandoning the “prison works” approach to crime, avoiding a return to grammar schools and retaining the ring-fence on aid — all policies that infuriate the rightwingers. “The traditionalists are just not on planet Earth,” says one Cameroon.”

The central notion is that it’s a lot easier for Cameron to pursue his agenda without his right wing holding the balance of power.

But isn’t there a contradiction here? If the blues had an overall majority then the yellows would have far less bargaining strength and the right could be a lot more powerful.

There’s also a problem with the Lib Dems – I find it hard to envisage that the party would allow such an arrangement to happen.

I get a feeling that Montgomerie is about to prepare one of his Tory members’ polls. They ain’t going to like it.

Mike Smithson