Was this a wise point for Hain to raise today?

Twitter can become a very dangerous facility as Peter Hain is no doubt reflecting this lunchtime. His Tweet, featured above, clearly reflects his feelings about the wedding coverage but wouldn’t it have been better if he had just kept this to himself for today at least?

The problem with Twitter is that it’s so easy to publish. Sometimes it can take only seconds.

Now Hain’s Tweet is going to get quoted back at him and his party – not a good thing just six days before the crucial May 5th elections.

Update: Polly joins in as well

Mike Smithson

Is there money to be made from the big day?

Novelty bets are rarely worth looking at. Frequently there are huge overrounds in markets more designed for publicity than serious punting. Still, unlike more mainstream markets, there can be large disparities between the different bookies, so where’s the best value for today?

The first market to be settled should be that of their title. The sons of the monarch or heir apparant usually receive a dukedom when they marry (which in this case would prevent Kate becoming Princess William). The dukedom of Cambridge is a strong possibility but not attractive at the 4/7 Paddy Power is offering (and no-one else seems to be). Sussex at 11/2 has more going for it, although it’s worth remembering that while it’s traditional for a title to be conferred, it’s not guaranteed.

One market for which ‘form’ may offer some guide is the colour of the Queen’s hat. Yellow seems to be overwhelming favourite and there’s justice in that. Even so, green at 12/1 with Ladbrokes and turquoise at 20/1 with Coral are worth considering.

The time of Kate Middleton’s arrival offers some attractions, though the various firms have different definitions. Bet365 are offering 4/1 that she will set foot outside the Abbey before 11am. As she’s arriving by car, the whole thing is choreographed in great detail and arriving outside the Abbey early isn’t the same as going into the Abbey early, there may be some value there. Alternatively, Ladbrokes have 100/30 that she will enter the Abbey ‘on time’.

There are various markets on the length of her train. While it’s unlikely to be on the scale of Diana’s, the setting and the occasion lend themselves to spectacle. The 9/2 Paddy Power’s offering on 5.01m to 8m looks quite interesting and I could well see it towards the lower end of that range.

Finally, one ‘special’ I’d pick out is for Kate to get William’s names in the wrong order, available at 16/1 with Paddy Power. Diana famously did this and William, like his father, has four names. I’m not sure there’s much value in that but nerves can do strange things to even the most accomplished public speakers – as Barack Obama demonstrated when he fluffed his inaugural oath.

Good luck, and enjoy.

David Herdson

Dave, stop trying to curb your Etonianism dear, it doesn’t wash

The recent kerfuffle over the PM’s “Calm down, dear” comments seems to me to have to have rather missed the point. Cameron exposed a weakness at PMQ’s, but it wasn’t a weakness for rather camp Michael Winner impressions, it was a failure to control himself when he’s not on top of his brief . A trait that is particularly obvious when he’s discussing the NHS. This is something that the Prime Minister clearly needs to work on.

There is of course another weakness which Cameron has displayed since becoming Conservative Party leader, and that is his desire to portray himself as one of the people, a normal middle class bloke – something he clearly isn’t, but something he seems determined to work at relentlessly.

It’s five years ago this week that the “Fake Dave” meme was born, with the memorable story of the cycling young Conservative leader, polishing his green image, wind in his hair, unfortunately with chauffeur and briefcase in his rear view mirror.

That image stuck. Four years later, before the last election as PR week reported: “..Worryingly for the Conservatives, 37 per cent of people also rem­embered the 2006 story of leader David Cameron cycling to work, trailed by a chauffeur-driven car, in a botched attempt to display his green credentials..Some 18 per cent believe this story aff­ected the party’s current reputation.”

Cameron appears not to have learnt from this, indeed his attempts to redefine his class background, which he assumes is a political weakness, run the risk of turning something which the public are not overly bothered about, into one of sincerity, which can be very damaging..

Rather than learning from this, Daves attempts to portray himself an ordinary bloke appear to be accelerating. Recently we’ve had the lounge suit at the wedding story, discovered Daves tangles with IKEA flatpack furniture and been briefed about his use of low cost airlines in Departuregate,

Perhaps we should have spotted the signs last autumn with the “vanity photographer” own goal, despite producing one of the finest examples in the genre, “A common man enjoys a hastily poured 440ml of Guinness” which appears at the top of the thread, it was obvious that putting him on the public payroll would backfire.

All politicians try to define themselves in the publics mind, Cameron runs the risk of becoming defined by his attempts to define himself.

Dave should take a leaf out of Boris’ book, and relax a bit. And get briefed on the NHS.

Tim has posted 32,618 comments on PB since his first contribution in June 2005

NO moves to its biggest lead of the campaign

A new poll by ComRes for tonight’s London Evening Standard has the biggest lead for NO so far seen in the referendum campaign when the actual wording was put.

So far I cannot find any further details and don’t even know whether this was online or by phone. Also ComRes has had an odd approach to turnout weighting using responses to their general elections voting certainty question.

Whatever this split is in line with all the polls we have seen in the past 11 days and there is no comfort there at all for the YES camp.

UPDATE: We’ve now got the detail from the poll which was carried out by phone with the fieldwork finishing on Easter Monday. An AV-specific turnout question was asked and the 60-40 split was based on those saying they were “certain to vote”. Amongst all those who expressed a preference the split was 58-42.

Mike Smithson